The markets advanced for the fourth consecutive session as prices recovered from a steep slide that began in October after U.S. President Donald Trump said beef prices were too high.

“With the cash prices moving up, that’s giving a little bit better tailwind,” a broker said.

CME February live cattle futures ended 3.150 cents higher at 227.150 cents per pound after reaching the highest since Nov. 12 at 227.375 cents. CME January feeder cattle closed up 2.475 cents at 339.050 cents per pound after trading up to 340.075 cents, the highest since Oct. 27.

In the cash market, cattle traded for about $220 per hundredweight this week in northern areas such as Nebraska, up about $10 from last week, brokers said. The increase reflected demand from meatpackers, they said.

Packers slaughtered an estimated 115,000 cattle on Friday, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. That was up from 109,000 cattle a week ago, the day after the Thanksgiving holiday, data showed.

Traders were monitoring cold weather across the central U.S. that could slow weight gain in livestock. In the Midwest, extensive snow cover was expected through next week, weather firm Vaisala said.

Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 476,000 hogs, up from 402,000 a week ago, according to the USDA.

In other news, Catalonia’s regional government said it would investigate a research center outside Barcelona after Spain’s Agriculture Ministry said a recent swine fever outbreak could have been caused by a laboratory leak.

— Reporting by Tom Polansek

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The 40-per cent tariffs were removed by the White House to bring down beef prices and should result in Brazilian beef moving into the U.S. once again. Talk that the U.S. government was considering reopening the U.S./Mexico border to Mexican cattle once again also circulated the market.

The February live cattle contract lost 0.625 cents per pound at 214.775 cents. Feeder cattle were down 2.150 cents in the January contract at 314.225 cents per pound.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were slightly firmer, with choice boxes up five cents at $371.28 per hundredweight and select boxes up $0.63 at $354.18/cwt.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released updated cattle on feed data after the markets closed. Cattle and calves on feed as of Nov. 1, 2025, were down two per cent from the same point a year ago, at 11.7 million head. There were 11. 4 million head on feed as of Oct. 1, 2025.

Placements at feedlots in October came in at 2.04 million head, which was down 10 per cent from the same month a year ago.

Lean hog prices were down 1.950 cents per pound in the February contract at 77.725 cents per pound.

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The December live cattle contract lost 1.925 cents per pound at 225.275 cents. Feeder cattle were down 1.675 cents in the January contract at 327.475 cents per pound.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker, with choice boxes down $4.77 at $374.45 per hundredweight and select boxes down $0.14 at $359.94/cwt.

The possible reopening of the United States government kept some caution in the futures, as market participants will be watching any data that comes out for any confirmation of the strong consumer beef demand that reportedly contributed to the recent strength in the futures.

Lean hog prices were weaker, with the December contract down 1.725 cents at 80.625 cents per pound. Federally inspected hog slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 460,000 head by the USDA, taking the weekly total to 954,000 head.

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The back-and-forth flow of speculative money in reaction to whatever geopolitical news is available can be expected to account for much of the activity in the grain and oilseed futures over the next few weeks.

Thawing trade relations between the United States and China gave the soy market a boost to end October, as Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea and apparently reached a deal. Actual details were still lacking nearly a week later. However, the headline news that China would be buying at least 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans over the next two months and another 25 million tonnes per year for three years in exchange for the easing of some U.S. tariffs was enough to take bean futures to their highest levels in 16 months.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney also met with Xi. Both leaders had positive things to say about improving trade relations between their countries after the meeting, lending a glimmer of hope to the canola market. However, there was no concrete movement, and the Canadian oilseed is still facing stiff tariffs into what had been its largest customer.

Canola will eventually find a home as the world trade flows adjust themselves. However, the price at which that business occurs remains to be seen.

Weekly export data from the Canadian Grain Commission shows Canada exported 1.2 million tonnes of canola through 12 weeks of the current marketing year. That compares with 2.9 million tonnes at the same point a year ago. At that pace, yearly canola exports are only on target to hit 5.2 million tonnes, which would be well short of the 9.5 million tonnes moved in 2024/25.

Looking at the charts, the seasonal lows appear to be in for the time being, but the upside is also limited, and canola futures could chop around in a sideways range without any developments on the trade front. The January contract appears to be facing stiff resistance around $650 per tonne, with support in the $630 to $635 area. Meanwhile, soybeans gapped higher on the charts with a move above US$11 per bushel in the January contract now creating a new support level. If that US$11 fails to hold, the next support comes in at around US$10.60 to US$10.70/bu.

U.S. soybean export shipments are also off to a slow start, with the 7.8 million tonnes moved through nine weeks, the lowest level for this time of year since 2011. Traders will be watching to see if the rumoured Chinese purchases materialize in the weeks ahead, although there is some added uncertainty as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown limits the available data.

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A brief talk between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea created some optimism over thawing trade relations between the countries. However, the tariffs on both sides remain in place for the time being, with Canada effectively shut out of its largest customer for canola seed.

Analyst Bruce Burnett of Glacier FarmMedia placed the January canola contract in a sideways range between C$635 and C$650, and expected values would remain rangebound until something changed on the trade front.

Canola futures will “continue on that path until we see an increase in exports to a third party, or China returns to the market,” said Burnett adding that he didn’t expect to see that happen any time soon.

China imported 4.7 million tonnes of Canadian canola in 2024/25, accounting for roughly half of all exports that marketing year.

Pakistan is one country that could start taking up some of the slack of the lost business to China. Pakistan and Canada released a joint statement including an agreement to facilitate Pakistani purchases of Canadian canola. The country had once been a major canola customer, importing over a million tonnes annually, but has been absent from the market for the past three years due to changes to the country’s biosecurity measures.

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“We’ve seen some bullish sentiment based on possible trade talks,” said John Weyer of Walsh Trading in Chicago.

China’s state-owned COFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans this week, marking the first such purchases of the 2025 crop ahead of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

January soybeans ran into resistance at US$11 per bushel, but “if we can get back up there and settle (above US$11) we could continue to ride the near-term bull wave,” said Weyer.

He placed the next resistance targets at US$11.20 and again at US$11.27 per bushel.

However, at the same time, any negative trade headlines and Weyer expected the market “could pull back quite a bit.”

Corn and wheat both lacked any fresh supportive news of their own but were finding spillover strength from the advances in soybeans, said Weyer.

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The province’s grain farmers have been warned to expect a cash crunch, both this year and into 2026. Fertilizer prices are up, Manitoba Agriculture has noted, and, although not quite at the astronomical levels farmers faced going into 2023, the cost of production jump seen since 2022 hasn’t entirely deflated. Meanwhile, grain prices haven’t been anything to write home about, and agricultural commodities — on the grain side, largely reliant on export markets — remain braced for swings as trade policy between Canada and some of its largest trading partners remains uncertain.

WHY IT MATTERS: Manitoba farmers are grappling with tough marketing decisions and a shift toward managing cash flow and gross revenue, despite bringing in a strong harvest.

Strong 2025 yields that would normally have farmers smiling are also adding downward pressure on prices, analysts have said. Statistics Canada expected 36.624 million tonnes of wheat and 20.03 million tonnes of canola as of its September 2025 crop projections, although anecdotal reports suggest that latter number may come in even higher than expected. Soybeans were one of the few major crops expecting a hit, projected at 7.13 million tonnes, down from 7.57 million in 2024.

Normally an income driver for Manitoba farmers, canola price news has been less than rosy this year. As of mid-October, canola prices had avoided a dip below $600 a tonne, although some analysts expect that might still happen, based on headwinds facing the oilseed, not least of which being the general tariff-driven loss of the Chinese market for seed, oil and meal.

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, meanwhile, hit a five-year low in mid-October.

For producers, the timing creates a cash flow challenge.

“I think we all go through our processes before we plan our crop, our acre allocations. And, we go through and have our break even price and what we essentially think we need to sell for in order to at least keep farming,” said Kevin Peters, vice-president of Keystone Agricultural Producers and a farmer near Steinbach.

Deciding what to haul first

With multiple crops needing to move and prices disappointing across the board, farmers are struggling to parse what they should sell first. For Peters, local markets provide some direction.

“For us in our location, we’ve got a lot of livestock and hogs in our area, so feed grains continually move for us. So, it’s a very competitive market … often it’s a similar price to the elevator, or at least comparable,” he said.

But not every farmer has nearby livestock operations or enough on-farm storage to wait for better prices. Peters, for example, said his operation doesn’t have enough storage to hold an entire harvest. To manage that limitation, the farm forward-prices ahead of time. That forward contracting helps offset early costs of fertilizer and seed, a strategy for managing competing cash flow pressures.

China absence affects markets

China hasn’t purchased any Canadian canola this crop year, creating uncertainty for farmers deciding whether to sell now or wait.

“Year-to-date, we’re shy a million tonnes already on exports relative to last year,” said David Drozd, co-founder and senior marketing analyst with AgChieve Grain Marketing Experts. “That bill is starting to back up in the country. You’re already seeing it moving to the crushers.”

The situation has created cash flow challenges for producers across the province. Crushers, aware of the building supply, have widened basis levels and filled nearby delivery slots, leaving farmers with limited options to move grain before year-end, Drozd said during an Oct. 8 Manitoba Agriculture Crop Talk webinar. Some crops are showing no bids until January in certain areas as elevators and processors manage their own inventory challenges.

Weakness across grain markets

As of the time of writing, spring wheat was trading near $5.50 per bushel. Yellow peas have dropped to $6 per bushel from highs of $9 to $10 earlier in the year. Soybeans continue trading in a sideways pattern between $10 and $12 per bushel. Corn prices in Manitoba have seen the $6 per bushel level disappear.

Drozd projects November canola futures could drop to $550 per tonne, with cash prices bottoming around $11 to $12 per bushel, based on chart patterns showing the market breaking below key support levels and forming a measuring gap that typically predicts further declines.

He recommends farmers target $13 to $14 per bushel on any market bounces for canola, particularly in deferred months with crushers, though those opportunities are becoming harder to find for grain needed before December.

“On minor bounces, you’re seeing limited upside because there’s more willing farmers to sell that bounce before it goes lower,” Drozd said. “The farmers that had started selling earlier, of course, they’re pleased with what they did. They all wish they did more.”

The pattern mirrors challenges from the previous Trump administration, Drozd said. During the 2017-2020 term, grain markets largely traded sideways in relatively narrow ranges, with significant rallies only materializing after the administration ended. He said farmers should prepare for similar range-bound trading over the next several years.

That scenario changes the marketing approach but also simplifies some decisions, Peters said.

“If you’re only trading within a certain price range, then you know sort of what that upper limit is probably going to look like,” he said. “So, you can hit that upper limit more easily when you get a little bounce, because you know that trading range is more horizontal.”

Staying profitable

For Peters, staying profitable comes down to the fundamentals of number crunching and shaving expenses.

“Those are direct-to-bottom-line type solutions,” he said.

Grain markets typically remain under pressure through the U.S. harvest period, often not finding seasonal lows until November or even December, Drozd said. Any significant rally may not materialize until January, when stored grain becomes more expensive to move and farmer selling naturally slows.

Dealing with inputs

While some 46-0-0 urea can be found below $800 per tonne, Drozd cautioned against paying more than that level. He suggested waiting for potential further softening into late fall. Last year, farmers who waited until July secured prices around $660 per tonne, though Drozd doesn’t expect prices to fall that low again.

“Fertilizer prices generally follow the price of corn. It’s a big user,” he said. “We’re not seeing higher prices. With grain markets coming down, farmers are going to be a little bit reluctant to want to pay the higher prices, reluctant to pour on as much nitrogen.”

Fertilizer-to-crop price ratios are showing declining affordability, a Farm Credit Canada analysis noted in September, putting additional pressure on farm margins for the upcoming crop year.

Gross revenue instead of price

Drozd further encouraged producers to focus on gross revenue instead of just price. Farmers with strong yields might be achieving near-record gross revenue even at disappointing prices. Furthermore, he said, the better market conditions producers may be waiting for might not materialize.

“The price isn’t coming … but if the gross revenue is there, don’t let it slip away. You will farm another day.”

He also suggested farmers should develop marketing plans now rather than waiting for prices to improve, particularly for grain needed to cover cash flow before December.

“We make our best decisions on what to look for to the upside when we’re actually down at the lows, and then we have the discipline not to raise the bar when we get up to that price,” Drozd said.

Peters said his operation hasn’t changed its fundamental approach as the markets sour.

“Overall, I don’t know that we’ve really shifted how we look at selling grain,” he said. “I think for us, it’s important to sort of continually do what we’ve done in the past in order to average our sale price out.”

Seeding decisions for 2026

Peters has also already plans to adjust his next seeding plans.

“We did cut a little bit already for 25-26 (marketing year),” he said. “And we may shave a little bit more off.”

But there are limits to how much a farmer can deviate from plans already in motion when rotation and fertility come into play, he believes. That makes Drozd’s advice to grow the crop “that your neighbours are not going to grow” harder, Peters said.

“You don’t necessarily have that luxury,” the farmer said.

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The December live cattle contract gained 1.775 cents per pound on Tuesday, at 245.425 cents. The nearby November feeder cattle contract was up 0.800 cents per pound at 373.475 cents per pound, with the January contract up 1.100 cents at 370.275 cents per pound.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice boxes $2.75 higher at $371.93 per hundredweight and select boxes down $0.89 at $352.57/cwt.

Lean hog prices strengthened, with the December contract up 1.200 cents at 83.275 cents per pound.

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Cattle futures posted limit-down losses on Friday following comments from United States President Donald Trump that he would lower beef prices. Trump also said over the weekend that beef purchases from Argentina were a possibility.

The December live cattle contract gained 1.825 cents per pound on Monday, at 243.650 cents.

The feeder cattle market was mixed on the day. The nearby November contract was up 0.975 cents per pound at 372.675 cents per pound. However, the more deferred months were lower, with January down 0.125 cents at 369.175 cents per pound.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were up on the day, with choice boxes $2.41 higher at $369.18 per hundredweight and select boxes up $3.19 at $353.46/cwt.

Lean hog prices were mixed, with the December contract down 0.300 cents at 88.950 cents per pound.

Pork production in China was up seven per cent in the third quarter compared to a year ago, at 13.48 million tonnes, according to Chinese government data.

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The December live cattle contract gained 1.750 cents per pound at 246.500 cents. Chart-based positioning contributed to the gains, according to participants, with the next resistance target seen at 248 to 250 cents per pound.

November feeder cattle futures were up by 4.600 cents per pound at 381.325 cents per pound.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were up on the day, with choice boxes $0.51 higher at $364.42 per hundredweight and select boxes up $0.80 at $350.55/cwt.

Lean hog prices were lower, as a sharp drop in Chinese prices spilled into the U.S. market. The December contract was down 1.700 cents at 83.150 cents.

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