That included 2.18 million tons of wheat, 553,732 tons of corn and 454,641 tons of barley, the data showed.

Ukraine’s UGA grain traders union said this month that overall grain and oilseed exports totalled 4.3 million tons in August, up from 4.2 million in July.

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UGA said that included 2.2 million tons of wheat, 794,000 tons of rapeseed and 646,000 tons of corn.

Ukraine typically sends about 95 per cent of its grain exports via its Black Sea ports.

Agriculture Ministry data on Wednesday showed that Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season had jumped to 7.2 million metric tons as of Sept. 4 from 4.9 million by the same date of the previous season.

That included 3.8 million tons of wheat, 2.3 million tons of corn and 1.1 million tons of barley.

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The current dispute is the result of leaked reports from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, cited by the Globe and Mail. The reports indicated that Conservative Member of Parliament Michael Chong had been targeted by China for criticizing its treatment of the country’s minority Muslim Uyghur population. The Globe article alleged that China was gathering information on Chong’s family members in Hong Kong for the purpose of intimidation.

The story followed reports of other alleged political interference from China, including Globe reports earlier this year, also based on CSIS documents, that pointed to Chinese plans to influence the 2019 and 2021 elections.

Fallout from the latest reports resulted in Canada declaring Zhao Wei, a diplomat from China’s Toronto consulate who is the centre of the allegations, “persona non grata” and ordering her to leave the country. The next day, China declared Jennifer Lynn Lalonde, a diplomat from Canada’s Shanghai consulate, “persona non grata” and ordered her to leave by May 13.

Why it matters: Agricultural exports have been affected by Canada-China trade relations in the not-so-distant past. There are fears that this latest dispute could similarly spill over.

Given the recent history of Chinese-Canadian trade relations, Canadian agricultural groups are concerned.

In 2018, Canada detained Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Chinese tech giant Huawei, at the request of the United States.

China later detained two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, in a move that was widely seen as a response to Meng’s arrest. China also imposed trade restrictions on several Canadian agricultural exports, including canola and pork.

In March 2019, China suspended two Canadian companies, Richardson International and Viterra, citing quarantine pests found in canola shipments. In June of that year, Beijing halted beef and pork imports, citing falsified paperwork.

China did not officially connect Meng’s arrest with subsequent trade restrictions, although many trade experts said there was a connection.

The canola restrictions lasted until May 2022, well beyond the release of Meng Wanzhou in September 2021.

Fear of repeating history

Given public perception of what happened the last time Canada and China were at loggerheads, the Canola Council of Canada is monitoring current events.

“China is a very important market for Canadian canola,” said council president Jim Everson. “China is the largest oilseed importer in the world. So when our market access is blocked, it has implications for Canadian trade.”

Everson said those implications went beyond the two companies directly affected by the three-year ban.

“It also impacted the rest of the value chain,” he said.

An analysis of the impacts of the canola ban was commissioned by the canola council and released in February 2021. It indicated that lost sales and lower prices amounted to a loss of $1.54 to $2.35 billion for the industry.

While he wouldn’t speculate on current tensions, Everson said he hopes the two countries can resolve the dispute in ways that won’t affect economic trade.

“I see our role as ensuring that the Government of Canada is up to date on the state of trade with canola and the implications of any kind of disruption,” he said.

The 2019 pork ban, which lasted five months, also caused significant loss to Canada’s hog sector.

“It had a major impact because the door was closed, and for us, China is a significant market,” then Canadian Pork Council chair Rick Bergmann told the Co-operator in 2019. “They are our third largest market that we pursue.”

Bergmann estimated country-wide cost to the sector at roughly $10 million a week, which would bring the total cost to roughly $380 million.

The pork council declined to comment on the current diplomatic dispute.

While previous restrictions on pork and canola were resolved, the Canadian beef industry was later shut out of Chinese markets in December 2021 as a result of an atypical BSE case found in Canada. That case also prompted bans from South Korea and the Philippines.

Atypical BSE is a form that can occur naturally in older cattle, as opposed to classical BSE that is caused by an animal eating contaminated feed.

“[Atypical BSE] pretty much occurs in every cattle population around the world,” said Dennis Laycraft, Canadian Cattle Association executive vice-president. “Normally, as soon as you confirm it’s atypical, that pretty well ends the investigation. Those few countries that do suspend imports usually relist those countries fairly quickly.”

The Philippines and South Korea have both relisted Canadian beef, but Chinese bans are still in place.

Asked if he was concerned that the latest diplomatic dispute might prolong China’s resistance to reinstating Canadian beef, Laycraft said he hopes the restrictions are lifted soon and that the diplomatic tit-for-tat doesn’t flow into trade.

“We would really like to see China reopened; we are developing some really good customers in that market,” he said, adding that strong demand from Japan, the U.S. and Mexico has left the beef sector in relatively good shape.

“We actually had record exports in 2022, even though the Chinese market was closed,” he said. “We’re not in that vulnerable position, so we’re just taking this in stride. At some point, that market will reopen as they need more beef.”

In an emailed statement, Cereals Canada communications director Ellen Pruden said the organization sees no indication of disruptions to cereals trade due to recent events.

“Our industry has a long-standing relationship as a cereal grains supplier to the country. Canada’s cereal sector values stable and open trade and we know that good relationships are the foundation of successful business.”

Pruden also said Cereals Canada regularly communicates with the federal government about the value of that trade relationship.

Experts weigh in

Gordon Houlden, director emeritus of the University of Alberta’s China Institute, said early indications suggest the dispute won’t affect trade.

“My reading of the immediate reaction to the Canadian expulsion of the individual from Toronto is that it was a tit-for-tat, one-for-one,” said Houlden. “There’s nothing that prevented China from escalating. They could have done that and they chose not to.”

Houlden said China’s measured response indicates it is not looking to burn trade bridges.

“It’s been my impression ever since Meng Wanzhou was released that China is seeking to modulate and reduce the conflict between us.”

However, Houlden said this is only the first skirmish in what could develop into a broader struggle.

Former governor general David Johnston was named special rapporteur on foreign electoral interference in March and is expected to decide whether to pursue an inquiry on Chinese interference by late May. That may prompt further response.

“I think that China is also keeping [its] powder dry. These issues are going to change the overall relationship,” Houlden said.

But even if things do devolve further, he thinks China will try to avoid a trade war.

“I don’t believe that trade is their preferred medium of retaliation,” he said. “If we do something trade-related, then the story changes. But I think they would rather keep the political and diplomatic in one box and the trade in another.”

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Yet, like any champion, it must watch for challengers and head them off. At present, China’s rise on the global stage troubles Washington. A few decades ago, it was the Soviet Union.

But will future contenders for superpower status be much closer — specifically, north of the U.S. border?

The British Empire ended in the mid-20th century when it was outmanoeuvred not by one of its longtime rivals, France or Germany, but rather by its ally, the U.S.

Could Canada do the same?

Canada’s population is just a fraction of its southern neighbour’s, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has announced an ambitious plan to bring in 500,000 immigrants each year by 2025.

The majority will be young and selected via merit-based criteria that give priority to education and workplace skills. Canada’s population in relation to the U.S. has also been increasing for decades; in 1950, Canada only had nine per cent as many people as the U.S.

Canada and the U.S. are roughly the same size, both accounting for 6.1 per cent of the world’s land mass. Much of Canada’s land at present is cold, barren and largely uninhabitable. But climate change has made Canada’s landscape more temperate and suitable for agriculture and other activities, a trend expected to continue in the decades to come.

In some ways Canada is already a superpower. Its economic output is the eighth largest in the world. The seven countries with larger economies have bigger populations than Canada. Even with a short growing season and relatively small area devoted to agriculture, Canada is the fifth largest exporter of agri-food and seafood products.

But economic strength is only one measure of a global power. Another is having the resources that others need. In that regard, Canada is extraordinarily rich in natural resources, including clean water. Regardless of future economic, environmental and technological trends, the country will be an energy and natural resources superpower.

Two other elements are needed for superpower status: a political system that provides strong governance and a national culture that’s appealing to its own citizens and to people around the world.

Canadian politics prizes stability and moderation, both hallmarks of a superpower. Social change occurs with few ideological battles. For example, becoming the first developed country to legalize the use and sale of recreational cannabis happened with scant controversy or social division.

Even on expanding the scope of medical assistance in dying legislation, Canadians have remained civil, with all stakeholders willing to listen to each other.

Superpowers are not only countries that dominate in various spheres, but also countries that command the aspiration of — and provide inspiration for — people around the globe. For two centuries, the U.S. has made its national dream one that others around the world sought to attain. American-style democracy was the gold standard.

This is now less and less the case. The “city on a hill” acting as a beacon of hope for others has morphed in recent decades into a selfish “America-first” environment.

American citizens have grown disillusioned by their polarized politics, while outsiders question the excesses that drive U.S. capitalism. Donald Trump’s years in the White House have left many dismayed about the future of their country and widened the divisions between Republicans and Democrats.

As neighbours, Canadians shake their heads in wonder at the inequities, lack of public health care, lax gun control and debates over abortion and immigration that dominate and divide American politics.

Canadian culture, shaped by the country’s history of being a fragment of both the British and French empires, has aspired to promote equality, both between individuals and groups, although it’s failed in its abysmal treatment of Indigenous peoples.

Nonetheless, in an age of globalization and demand for greater personal freedoms, Canada’s multicultural policies are a beacon of hope in a world often scarred by religious, ethnic and tribal battles.

Much like when the U.S. steadily assumed the role of unchallenged superpower from Great Britain during the first half of the 20th century, it might be that Canada gradually becomes a great power this century — perhaps first as a partner to the United States, but then increasingly supplanting its neighbour.

For many around the world, such a transition would be preferable to other scenarios, such as China or Russia assuming more dominant roles in global affairs.

A shift in global power relations would occur at a leisurely pace and with minimal disruption.

In 1776, with a population of 2.5 million, few imagined that within two centuries, the U.S. would become the dominant superpower. It’s not inconceivable that Canada could perform the same feat by 2223.

– Thomas Klassen is a professor in the School of Public Policy and Administration at York University.

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Abiec estimated that Brazil, the world’s biggest beef supplier, could export 2.141 million tonnes next year, worth US$8.789 billion, up from a record 2.020 million tonnes this year, worth US$8.533 billion.

Brazil is negotiating agreements to sell fresh beef to Canada, Japan, South Korea and Mexico, Abiec officials said. Brazil now exports only processed beef products to Canada.

Together those countries import some 1.3 million tonnes of fresh beef annually, or about 12.5 per cent of the international market.

Abiec said Brazilian companies could provide an estimated 260,000 tonnes per year to the four countries, representing potential revenues of US$1.5 billion.

Still, China will continue to represent the bulk of Brazil’s beef exports after accounting for an estimated 42.2 per cent of exports between January and November of this year, according to Abiec.

Brazil currently has 35 beef plants permitted to sell products to China and is looking to get approval for another 26 units in the short term, Antônio Camardelli, the head of Abiec, said.

In 2020, Brazil made good on its year-old industry promise to export more beef, a sign that supplies held up despite the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting production in countries which compete to supply global markets.

Camardelli said “almost no” Brazilian beef plants had to completely stop production amid the pandemic.

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“China has been importing a large quantity of meats this year, and has detected virus on the packaging of cold chain products many times, even as lots of disinfection has been done domestically,” Gao Guan, spokesman for the China Meat Association, said by telephone on Tuesday.

“It should be better to handle this (virus control) at the meats exporting origins, and carry out disinfection at the production plants,” as the cost would be lower, and efficiency higher, Gao added.

China has ramped up disinfection and virus testing on frozen food after it found coronavirus on imported products and packaging.

The measures have pushed up costs, disrupted trade, and irritated major exporters.

The semi-official industry body suggested exporters in COVID-19 hit countries should disinfect the outer packaging of products and the inner side of containers before sealing export products, a statement published on the association’s official WeChat account said at the weekend.

The initiative was proposed to “ensure the safety of imported cold-chain food and boost consumers’ confidence in imported cold-chain products,” the statement said.

The proposal came after some major exporters, including JBS in Brazil, started to take measures including extensive disinfection of products and storage sites, to supply China with safe products, Gao said.

Reported cases have shown that contact with packaging contaminated with coronavirus could lead to human infection, said the Chinese association.

The World Health Organization has said the risk of catching COVID-19 from frozen food is low. Chinese officials echoed that such risk was low, but there was still a risk.

“The virus is new. We are still accumulating experience when fighting against it,” Gao said.

“We should get together and discuss how to use the most scientific, efficient and low-cost way to secure public health, and trade at the same time,” Gao added.

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And by diversifying exports farmers will become less dependent on current major markets reducing their financial risk.

“When borders close for any number of reasons due to trade tensions or shock caused by disease or weather, having a broader range of export markets allows Canadian exports to be reallocated, rather than reduced,” FCC said in a news release Nov. 17 along with the release of its 2020 trade report entitled “Opportunities and Challenges to Diversify Canada’s Food Exports.”

After identifying the world’s biggest and fastest-growing food import markets, including those where Canada has a small existing market share, FCC identified opportunities to expand five Canadian food exports: canola oil, prepared or preserved pork, potato products, prepared crab and prepared or preserved beef.

In 2019 Canada ranked fifth and 11th in global agricultural and food exports, respectively, with sales earning $67 billion — a 10 per cent increase from 2015.

Of those sales, $29 billion were for food, accounting for 45.5 per cent of the total.

Food exports are up 28 per cent since 2015.

But 79 per cent of the increase was due to exports to just one market — the United States.

That’s a lot of eggs in one basket.

“Combined with our competitive advantages in natural resources and innovation, and a stellar food safety reputation, Canada has an opportunity to improve its world standing as a major food exporter, as well as to diversify its export markets,” J.P. Gervais, FCC’s chief agricultural economist, said in the release.

“World population growth, higher purchasing power in emerging markets and new trade agreements are key factors in potentially creating more opportunities for Canada to increase exports.”

Why it matters: Canadian farmers rely heavily on exports of unprocessed agricultural goods because they grow so much more than the domestic market consumes.

Canada’s agri-food industry has so far been able to fill domestic and export demands, despite COVID-19, Gervais told reporters via telephone Nov. 13 ahead of the report’s release.

“I would say there is a huge opportunity for us as an exporter in this world where a lot of food importers are not food secure… to say, ‘here we are in Canada with quality and safety… we have all that to offer…’” Gervais said. “I think that’s a huge opportunity for us in 2021… we can be a leading supplier…”

Canola oil

Canola oil is the fastest-growing vegetable oil behind coconut, FCC says. Canola oil is used mostly for food rather than biofuel. Importers in Asia and the West prefer it because it’s more environmentally friendly than some other oils. FCC says there is more potential to export more Canadian canola oil to Asia and Europe.

Pork

Beyond China, most Canadian pork has an advantage in small countries with slow recent growth. Excluding China, the markets that show the greatest potential for Canadian pork are in Europe — Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and Poland. There are hurdles, including a European Union requirement that meat imports be certified free of antimicrobials, Gervais said.

“If you break down all the barriers we have a very competitive pork product in Europe,” he said.

Potato products

In 2019, Canada was the fourth-largest exporter of potato products, worth just over $1 billion. The expanding western diet has increased demand for french fries and potato products. While the United Kingdom is the largest and fastest-growing importer, there is opportunity for expansion in Europe and China.

Crab meat

From 2009 to 2019, Canada has been the world’s largest exporter of prepared crab, capturing 33 per cent of total global exports last year. China, along with South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Hong Kong, represent a third of the global import growth. However, Russia is threatening to overtake Canada in crab meat exports.

Beef

Global prepared and preserved beef imports grew by 58 per cent between 2009 and 2019 and China accounted for almost 40 per cent of it. Over the same period, Canadian exports grew by almost 125 per cent. Last year China surpassed the U.S. as the largest beef importer, including prepared and preserved beef. There are opportunities for Canadian beef in Europe and other Asian countries.

While FCC’s report extolls the benefits of increasing food exports and diversifying markets, it acknowledges it’s not easy. That’s why FCC is helping smaller and medium-size companies to first grow exports to existing customers, Gervais said.

“Then afterwards I am convinced we can see some diversification given the efforts,” he said.

“Diversification almost always entails seeking markets that are farther away and more expensive to develop,” the report says.

Some potential markets are price sensitive, especially for high-quality Canadian products, the report says.

China can also be as influential in world food markets as the U.S.

“It (China) can engage in the protracted tensions that have shaped much of global trade since 2019 and led to shifts in trade flows that do not truly reflect diversification,” the report says.

“A slower pace of economic expansion worldwide can mean more timid growth in food demand, impeding diversifying efforts. The pandemic has reminded us of the importance of a robust food supply chain and economic consequences for some countries may last years.”

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Sept 12, 2018

Dear Messrs. Trudeau, Scheer, Singh and Ms. May:

As the voice of Canadian agri-food exporters, representing the 90 per cent of farmers, ranchers, producers, processors and agri-food exporters who depend on stable, predictable and preferential access to international markets for their livelihoods, I am writing about the urgent need for Canada to ratify and bring into force the Comprehensive and Progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

As you know, this vital and potentially transformative trade agreement will come into force 60 days after the first six countries ratify it. While we welcomed the introduction of legislation before the summer recess, other CPTPP countries are moving more swiftly to take the necessary steps to bring the agreement into force. In July, Singapore became the third country to ratify the pact after Mexico and Japan. Others including Chile, Australia, New Zealand and Peru are expected to follow suit shortly.

Given the unprecedented trade uncertainty facing Canada due to the Trump administration’s increasingly aggressive protectionism, improved access to dynamic Pacific markets is now more important than ever. Canada’s economy depends on stable and open trade. As the second-largest economy at the table after Japan, Canada has the opportunity to play a leadership role and show that we stand tall on the world stage in support of free, open, rules-based trade.

According to research commissioned by the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA), this trade pact could increase Canadian agri-food exports by nearly $2 billion annually for a variety of agriculture products including beef, pork, grains, canola, pulses, soybeans, barley, sugar and processed foods.

The first-mover advantage is real in trade deals and Canada cannot afford to be left behind by our competitors. Thousands of Canadian jobs and billions of dollars are at stake. It’s imperative that parliamentarians come together and act swiftly to ratify the CPTPP.

We urge all parliamentarians in both Houses to take the steps necessary for Canada to be among the first six countries to bring the CPTPP into law. Implementing the CPTPP will help us diversify Canada’s trade and demonstrate how political leaders of all stripes can deliver results for Canadians.

I thank you for considering this urgent matter. I look forward to hearing from you and answering any questions you may have.

Sincerely yours,
Brian Innes, CAFTA president

This open letter was sent to Canada’s political leaders by the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA).

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The Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute’s report, Barton Forward: Optimizing Growth in the Canadian agri-food sector comes as the sector now eyes boosting agri-food exports to $75 billion by 2027.

The ambitious target was set in 2016 after the federal government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth, led by Canadian management consultant Dominic Barton, tagged agriculture and agri-food as among the six sectors expected to lead the country’s national growth over the next 10 years.

Last fall and this spring CAPI posed questions in a series of cross-country consultations as to whether the target is realistic, and if so, how to approach it.

The conclusion of its new Barton Forward report on what’s needed to achieve the goals of the ‘Barton Report,’ is ‘yes, we can,’ but there are critical challenges and risks to be considered.

“Achieving $75 billion in exports by 2027 may be challenging but it is quite doable,” the report released June 22 said.

“However, it is far from clear how we can do this while maintaining and enhancing Canada’s natural capital and improving health and well-being of current and future Canadians, as well as preserving public trust,” it also says.

CAPI did this because it was important to hear what people were thinking about how this emphasis on exports could affect the domestic environment, said Ted Bilyea, past chair and special adviser to the CAPI board of directors in an interview.

“There’s nothing wrong with the numbers,” he said.

“But it’s a much deeper question as to whether those numbers are actually achievable.”

The report cites a series of challenges, risks and trade-offs, as well as solutions and opportunities, drawn from the consultations, around questions that also included, ‘could that level of growth be achieved while maintaining and improving Canada’s natural capital?’ and, ‘is going forward with this compatible with other key policy objectives?’

Also asked was, ‘does science and innovation hold the key to meeting the growth targets?’

Among the most pressing issues is the implications this could have for negative impacts to the country’s natural capital; there are examples worldwide of what significantly ramping up production to the expense of soil and water resources has had, said Bilyea.

“Essentially we can’t win any races to the bottom, but we can certainly win a race to the top,” he said.

“A long-term vision must have its eye on more than just reaching a targeted number for export growth over a decade. Its focus must be on the quality of growth that pays attention to natural capital, that will enable the sector to continue to grow in the decades to follow, and to the health and well-being of Canadians so that they are not compromised by food insecurity and climate change.”

Without attention to those issues the agricultural sector won’t sustain long-term growth nor contribute fully to a comprehensive growth strategy for the country, the report says.

With respect to this being a realistic target, the report notes to a very large degree reaching the goal depends on what the world will want from its global food trade partners in the years ahead.

Many countries, including China, are projected to experience slowing population growth and slower growth in gross domestic product (GDP) over the next decade, it notes.

“This will translate into slower growth in demand for most commodity groups, such as cereals, meat, fish and vegetable oils,” the report says. However, a move toward a more western-style diet among the expanding middle classes in China and India will boost preference for premium products, which is expected to offset that decline.

“This will have implications for global agri-food exports of high-value products, such as animal protein, organics and safe, healthy and sustainable products from top exporting countries, such as Canada,” it says.

How the industry is to achieve the Barton Report goals is now the focus of the Government of Canada’s Economic Strategy —Agri-Food Table, whose own interim report has identified five priorities, including increasing innovation and seizing value-added opportunities, adopting technology and advancing digitization, modernizing infrastructure and regulations, increasing market access and growing exports and dealing with labour shortages.

Those are indeed priorities, the CAPI report says, but its own conclusions add maintaining natural capital, monetizing all costs and benefits, attention paid to human health and well-being and the founding of new partnerships as critical priority areas, as well.

“Not caring for the natural capital could accelerate environmental degradation resulting in losses in productivity and erosion of public trust, which would impede Canada’s longer-term prospects,” it says, and “the health and well-being of Canadians are not to be compromised by food insecurity, inequality of incomes, rising health-care costs, and climate change.

CAPI’s aim now is to get these messages out to broader groups — in industry, governments, research communities and NGOs and start conversations on how to develop new models of partnership.

How this all fits with other key agricultural innovation policies — CAPI’s consultation workshops were held amidst the development of the National Food Policy (NFP), the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and others — boils down to co-ordination, Bilyea said.

“It’s about essentially thinking, in the big-picture sense, about what it is we’re trying to do. ”

“What CAPI is trying to say here is, ‘we can do this and do it for the long term… if we do it right.’

“The sector’s future growth is now poised at the intersection of virtually every policy area vital to our long-term growth and survival, from international trade to innovation, from environmental protection and stewardship to improved human-animal-planet health.”

Targets with caveats

The federal government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth has set a target for Canada to export $75 billion in agri-food products by 2027. That’s roughly doubling the country’s export share in a decade.

The Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute’s new report says ‘Yes, we can’ but…

WE MUST MAINTAIN NATURAL CAPITAL
Not caring for the natural capital could accelerate environmental degradation resulting in losses in productivity and erosion of public trust, which would impede Canada’s longer-term prospects.

WE MUST MONETIZE ALL COSTS AND BENEFITS
Canadians certainly desire the multi-faceted growth objectives of the Barton Report, but these objectives will be difficult to achieve unless the industry, with the assistance of government and research communities, develops new ways to monetize the quality and sustainability aspects of the growth agenda.

WE MUST SUSTAIN HUMAN HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
The health and well-being of Canadians are not to be compromised by food insecurity, inequality of incomes, rising health-care costs, and climate change; food policy, agricultural policy and science and innovation policy must be co-ordinated.

WE MUST CREATE NEXT-GENERATION CONNECTIONS
New models of partnership need to emerge to deliver an array of public and private solutions to issues of high importance.

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The Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance says in a new report that China purchased $5.6 billion worth of Canadian farm and food exports in 2016 and has become the second-largest two-way trading partner behind the United States.

“China has a taste for what Canadian agri-food can offer – now’s the time to turn that taste into Canadian growth,” said Brian Innes, CAFTA’s president.

“We’re barely scratching the surface. We should seize the opportunity to satisfying the dragon’s growing appetite from Canada.” China is a massive market with an emerging middle class demanding safe, high-quality products, the report says. It’s projected to be the world’s largest agri-food importer by 2020.

MacAulay’s visit to India comes as the two countries butt heads over pest treatment for peas and lentils. The Indian government wants the exports fumigated in Canada and not upon arrival in India as has been the practice for more than a decade. An exemption allowing the treatment in India expires at the end of March.

Pulse Canada says the methyl bromide treatment is for pests that don’t exist in Canada and doesn’t work in the cold. As well, it’s damaging to the ozone layer.

Canada exported $1.1 billion worth of peas and lentils to India in 2016 and $1.5 billion in 2015, about one-third of all Canadian pulse exports.

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency and its Indian counterpart have been discussing a resolution to the issue for months. It will be a key topic for MacAulay during his visit.

He will be accompanied by a group of Canadian industry associations representing a variety of agriculture, agri-food and seafood sectors looking to increase sales in the Asia-Pacific region.

Innes says Canada’s agri-food export success depends on increased access to China. “Increasing agri-food exports to China will be crucial to Canada’s economic future over the next 50 years.”

Currently, agri-food exports to China are already significant, the report says. China takes in one-third of Canada’s canola exports and represents an important market for soybeans, pulses, wheat, barley, beef and pork. While there’s opportunity to grow that business, “Canadian exporters continue to face serious barriers that are hampering growth,” the CAFTA report says. “For example, tariffs and non-tariff barriers reduce the range of products that can be exported and raise uncertainty for exporting businesses.”

While overcoming the barriers will be tough for many agri-food commodities and value-added food products Chinese production can’t keep up with demand and there are opportunities to improve trade.

In some cases, Canada faces a significant trade imbalance with China, particularly in value-added prepared foods and is at a competitive disadvantage compared to other countries such as Australia that have signed free trade agreements, the report says. A free trade agreement that eliminated tariffs would put Canada on a level playing field and enable Canadian exports to meet Chinese demand.

Also attracting interest in the Asia-Pacific region is a conference in Kobe, Japan where representatives from 16 countries met for the next round of negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Canada is a participant in the meeting.

It will be the first meeting since the new administration in Washington pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. While there are divisions within RCEP, supporters see its potential as the fundamental Asia-Pacific trade agreement for the 21st century.

Other countries in RCEP are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, China and India.

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• Read more: EU, Canada sign free trade deal but battle not over

While Canada remains an insignificant trading player globally, Europe needed to signal to the rest of the world that it remains open for business, despite its recent union-related woes. Economically, because of Russian embargoes, the EU is desperate to find new markets for their food products. CETA may likely ease the deflationary pressures that Europe has been feeling for some time now.

With Brexit, the potential gains from CETA for Canada are not as significant, but better access to the European market is good news, nevertheless. Canada’s cattle and hog industries are desperate to reach new markets, and CETA will help to do this in the long term. Canada’s supply management sectors have been needing a wake-up call from outside its borders, and that is exactly what CETA will deliver. With the influx of high-quality, more affordable dairy products, Canada’s dairy industry will now have to redefine itself within a more competitive landscape.

In Canada, domestic dairy processors have been preparing for this ratification for years, as massive investments from Saputo, Agropur and others have changed the structure of the industry. In the farming industry, things will be getting much more challenging with CETA. Most of Canada’s 11,000 dairy farmers are concerned about the future of the quota system. Some adjustments have been made by provincial boards in recent years, but these have not been nearly sufficient. More trade-focused programs are needed and boards should think of ways to entice dairy farmers to become more competitive. A robust vision for the sector must be realized. Both governments and the dairy sector have been struggling with this problem for decades.

Supply management is about producing what Canada needs as a nation. The quota system allows producers to feel confident and get paid well, while high tariffs on imports keep foreign products away from Canadian consumers. This is a simple system, which has been heavily criticized by most of the industrialized world for decades. Now CETA will allow thousands of kilos of cheese to enter the Canadian market, exempt from tariffs. This influx of products will represent about two per cent of Canada’s milk production, which will no longer be needed. This figure may not seem like much to the average person, but CETA does in fact create a significant breach in the quota system. This change in turn will destabilize Canada’s entire agricultural system. And, with all provinces having endorsed CETA under the previous government, more changes are on the way.

CETA will force the issue of supply management reform which should be welcome news, for dairy farmers most of all. Most have been led to believe that the status quo will serve their interests well moving forward. But, given that Canada has lost well over 30,000 dairy farms under supply management, it is time for governments and industry to work on a comprehensive plan to allow the Canadian dairy industry to become more competitive. A recent benchmark report suggests that Swiss dairy farmers are the least competitive in the world. Canadians are a close second. If borders open up to allowing more foreign dairy products in the future, Canada’s dairy sector will completely collapse. Any reform would need to be implemented over the next 15 to 20 years, to give Canadian dairy farmers a fighting chance to adjust to these market changes.

CETA will be a catalytic force for change, and Ottawa must develop an appetite for this, since it will not be easy. The Canadian government will need to contend with years of fiscal and socio-political baggage. The mandate letter given to the minister of agriculture did not mention anything remotely close to reforming Canada’s archaic supply management practices. These are due for a complete overhaul, and leadership coming from Ottawa will be key. For now, the industry has been left to deal with its own problems.

As the deadline for ratification of CETA loomed, the Trudeau government’s inexperience in diplomacy and global negotiations was painfully obvious. With CETA and other such agreements, it appears the Trudeau government does not have much desire for negotiations in general. Not very reassuring for those looking to Ottawa for some leadership in reforming our supply management regime, which is in dire need of restructuring. Patience and reserve are virtues, particularly when dealing with the ever-contentious issue of agricultural trade.

With CETA, Ottawa almost fumbled the ball in the proverbial end zone at the last minute of play. But the deal did prevail. Hopefully the Trudeau government adopts a different, more mature approach domestically for the betterment of Canada’s own dairy farmers.

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