Speaking from Beijing, canola council president Jim Everson emphasized the importance of the Chinese market for Canadian canola producers and processors.

“We are just at the end of what we think is a very successful mission for the canola industry and promoting canola here in China,” Everson said. “This agreement signals the start of a new relationship with Chinese importers based on co-operation to support mutually beneficial trade.”

• Read more: Canola Council of Canada completes successful China trip

The memorandum includes provisions such as communicating on regulations affecting trade and working together to facilitate industry meetings and exchanges. It was signed by the Canola Council of Canada and the China Chamber of Commerce of Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products.

“The memorandum of understanding is one that is a co-operative arrangement to share information back and forth between the canola council and the CFNA… to co-operate in different events that we might be holding in Canada and they might be holding in China,” Everson said. “There were no commitments at all with respect to volume or any kind of guarantee from that point of view.”

The memorandum will also help the council and its counterparts in China fully understand the impact of Chinese policies, laws and regulations, he said.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Lawrence MacAulay witnessed the signing and participated in several of the canola industry events organized by the council, Everson added.

“We are very thankful for the leadership that Minister MacAulay has taken in bringing a large number of Canadian ag representatives here to China for our mission here and particularly for participating in a number of the events in support of the canola industry while he was here,” he said.

The trade mission included the first-ever Canola Dialogue, a half-day event bringing together more than 60 industry and government representatives, including the Chinese inspection agency, its Agriculture Ministry, Commerce Ministry, biotechnology regulators and major importers.

China’s crush capacity has increased in recent years, but Chinese buyers are still apt to favour soybeans over canola for livestock feed. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China is expected to import 97 million tonnes of soybeans in 2017-18.

Bruce Jowett, vice-president of market development for the council, said the organization also held two events in Guangzhou during the trade mission, the first of which promoted canola meal.

“What they were able to do is share with the feed manufacturers… the role that canola meal can play in a ration for swine. I think it was pretty new news to those in attendance,” he said.

The second event in that city promoted the nutritional benefits of canola oil.

“It was primarily a media group that was in attendance, we’ve already seen up to eight stories being published on oil and the benefits of it, we also had the minister do some food preparation with a chef, just to show the ease and some of the attributes,” Jowett said. “It will increase the awareness of oil in this important market.”

While the perennial issue of blackleg was also raised during the trade mission, Everson said both Canada and China continue to research the issue and that trade will continue under existing terms until at least 2020.

“The subject came up, but really only in terms of going over again or repeating the commitment that we have each made… to taking efforts jointly to mitigate against any kind of concerns with blackleg being transferred from Canada to China,” he said, adding an additional memorandum of understanding is in the works regarding the issue.

The United States remains Canada’s largest export market for canola, but China is the second-largest export market for canola and canola products worth $2.7 billion in 2016.

China imported 4.8 million tonnes of Canadian canola in 2016, including 3.5 million tonnes of seed, 600 thousand tonnes of oil and 660 thousand tonnes of meal.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly soybean export figures have consistently met or exceeded analyst estimates so far.

But when comparing the current data against historical expectations, 2017-18 has a lot to prove.

Cumulative soybean inspections through Nov. 9 are down 12 per cent from last year’s levels and bookings through Nov. 2 are down 15 per cent. But USDA’s forecast is for 2017-18 exports to grow three per cent over last season’s record.

Some analysts might argue that a lag from a year ago is to be expected since the 2016-17 marketing year was heavily front loaded due to shortages in top-supplier Brazil.

But hopefully USDA would have factored that in to its 2016-17 forecast by last November, which was 200 million bushels lower than the current projection for 2017-18.

Window shift?

October and November are the two biggest months for U.S. soybean shipments and in recent years, close to 40 per cent of the annual amount sailed during these months.

Average inspections over the last few weeks have been smaller than in the same weeks during both 2015 and 2016.

However, the United States may have shipped more soybeans earlier than normal this year.

In August and September of 2016, some 7.9 million tonnes of beans left U.S. ports – two-thirds larger than the previous record for the period. This spike was attributed to the drought-clipped harvest in Brazil earlier last year.

But August-September 2017 shipments fell only two per cent from last year’s level, and this occurred at the same time that key rival Brazil cranked out record export volumes.

Looking at combined Brazil and U.S. exports for the month of September further demonstrates both how crazy the anomaly was and how unlikely its sustainability would be. The two countries, which supply the majority of the world’s soybeans, shipped a volume 47 per cent larger in November than the previous high.

Although skepticism over lofty export goals is completely valid, soybean demand doubters have simply not emerged as winners the last two years.

The massive September exports might not be a signpost of a permanent demand boost, but the 25 per cent year-on-year rise in actual shipments for the month was much larger than the 12 per cent implied from inspections.

U.S. demand found some unexpected support from Brazil early in 2017, which went against market thinking given that the South American country had just harvested a monster soybean crop.

Strength in Brazil’s currency can limit grower selling there as soybeans are priced in U.S. dollars. Domestic farmers were particularly stingy with their sales earlier this year, especially in the low-price environment.

There is always the possibility of adverse weather during the South American growing season, which is still in its infancy.

And although the trend cannot be relied on forever, USDA initially underestimated Chinese soybean imports by an average of seven per cent over the previous three seasons.

The post Opinion: Are U.S. soybean exports meeting market expectations? appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Any strength was largely tied to chart-based speculative buying, with no real fresh fundamental news as far as canola is concerned. The harvest is largely complete across Western Canada, while the U.S. harvest is in its final stages.

Farmers were still making good deliveries into the commercial pipeline in the latest weekly data, and the ample nearby supplies should be keeping a bit of a lid on the market. While those off-the-combine deliveries will now be slowing down, end users are looking comfortable for the time being with little reason to bid up the market.

Producers delivered just under 400,000 tonnes of canola during the week ended Nov. 12, taking visible stocks to 1.4 million tonnes, according to the latest Canadian Grain Commission data. Exports were off the record level posted the previous week, with adverse weather at the West Coast likely causing some delays.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released updated supply/demand tables during the week, but left their projections for canola unchanged with a carryout of one million tonnes projected for 2017-18. That would compare with the 1.3 million tonnes carried forward from 2016-17. The one million tonne mark is considered a bit of a tipping point for canola, with anything below that considered tight. As a result, future adjustments to the supply/demand balance will be followed closely.

Statistics Canada releases its final survey-based production estimates of the year on Dec. 6, which should provide a clearer picture on the available supplies for marketing this year.

Looking ahead, basis opportunities are a possibility, but the futures might just keep grinding along within their sideways range until a fresh spark comes to move values one way or the other.

In the U.S., soybeans and corn also saw some choppy activity during the week, with the bias pointed lower for the most part before Friday’s corrective bounce.

Corn futures touched fresh contract lows during the week, and could still have more room to the downside. However, about five to ten per cent of the U.S. corn crop is still waiting to be harvested, with quality and yield downgrades a possibility in some cases.

Soybeans hit their weakest levels in a month during the week, but bounced off of those lows as fund traders squared positions.

Attention in both markets is now shifting to South America, where weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina have the potential to pull prices one way or the other.

The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday takes place on Thursday, Nov. 23, and U.S. markets will close early on Wednesday and only see sporadic activity on Friday as participants digest their turkey. The holiday trade could lead to some choppiness and price swings.

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Canola futures began climbing back in the early part of September, eventually rising above the $520-per-tonne mark. However, that changed on Thursday, November 9, when the USDA left its prediction for soybean yields in the U.S. untouched. Traders had generally been expecting the yield number to fall slightly, but when that didn’t happen they started selling almost immediately.

The front-month January contract fell $5.30 on the day. It could have fallen more, but seemed to find a level of technical resistance at the $515 mark.

Demand for canola remains strong though and growers have been moving some supplies. Crushers and buyers have been putting on a few “specials” too, in order to keep things moving. Many in the industry want to get some more canola out of the bins before the dead of winter sets in.

Crush margins have been improving in recent days as the Canadian dollar has softened a bit from a few weeks ago.

In the U.S., both the soybean and corn markets were pressured by the USDA’s monthly supply-and-demand report. The agency surprised many in the oilseed industry by leaving the yield number untouched. The USDA also issued a slight revision to the carry-out in the U.S. which further undermined prices. On the international scene, soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina stayed relatively neutral, although rain in northern Brazil has improved growing conditions for the soybean crop. Brazil is expected to produce around 108 million tonnes while Argentina’s output is pegged at 57 million tonnes.

The corn market dropped from its usual perch near the US$3.50-per-bushel mark after the report came out. The USDA raised its yield estimate by a larger amount than expected. The agency pegged yields at 175.4 bushels an acre, up from the previous estimate of 171.8 bushels. If that prediction holds true it would be the biggest national average yield ever. The USDA also raised its estimate for the U.S. carry-out to 2.487 billion bushels, up from the October estimate of 2.295 billion bushels.

Chicago wheat futures continue to be pressured by the increasing size of the Russian wheat crop. SovEcon consulting agency raised its projections for Russian wheat production to a record 82.9 million tonnes. That exceeds the USDA’s prediction and comes at a time when the Russian ruble is relatively weak.

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In its monthly U.S. crop production report on Oct. 19, USDA increased harvested area of the oilseed by 740,000 acres but lowered the yield by 0.4 bushel to 49.5 bushels per acre.

The area boost was somewhat expected by the trade, but the yield move was not. The average market guess was that USDA would increase yield to 50 bu./acre from 49.9 in September, but only one out of the 20 polled analysts placed yield at 49.5 bu./acre or below.

In any other scenario, this seemingly small move would not be as shocking or consequential. But in recent years, USDA’s soybean yield estimates have tended to build over time even when weather was less than perfect, leading many to believe the agency might be lowballing from the start.

The adjustments to U.S. soybean area and yield cancelled each other, and the production peg ended up the exact same as last month’s figure, an all-time high of 4.431 billion bushels. This meant that the only change to the balance sheet was the 44-million-bushel cut in old-crop stocks, which the market already knew about from USDA’s Sept. 29 stocks report.

But a steady harvest volume must have felt like a smaller harvest volume to traders, as benchmark November CBOT soybean futures jumped nearly three per cent the day of the report. Follow-through buying the following day broke the $10-a-bushel mark (all figures U.S. funds) for the first time since Aug. 1.

The yield reduction has left many market participants stumped as to where the estimates go from here, as USDA’s uncharacteristic move has created concern that the crop could get even smaller as more harvest results roll in.

USDA had not lowered soybean yield in its October report since 2011. Further, the agency had not reduced soybean yield in any report from August through November since 2013.

An October reduction may have been in store in 2013 considering sizable yield cuts in the two preceding months, but the agency did not release that month because of a government shutdown, leaving 2011 as the most recent October yield cut.

However, soybean yields and characteristics appeared to have changed in 2012, in which the soybean pod weights topped 2009’s record by five per cent. Ever since then, pod weights have only been higher.

Generally, higher pod weights can be justified with a slightly lower pod count, and vice versa, unless the weather is absolute perfection. But this criterion might not exactly fit the more recent years, as pod counts have been all over the board.

In 2013, the lowest soybean yield that USDA printed was 41.2 bu./acre in September. The November number came in at 43 bu./acre and the final at 44, which at the time tied 2009’s record. But USDA’s initial moves that year do not align with those of 2017, so this somewhat eliminates 2013 as a comparable year in terms of the agency’s tendencies.

What all this suggests is that we truly might be in uncharted waters with 2017’s soybean harvest, as the past does not offer too many clues.

Some analysts wonder if USDA’s October soybean forecast was perhaps less meaningful than usual given that harvest pace is at a three-year low, thus reducing the amount of results the agency could use to comprise its yield estimate.

The fear is that if earlier-planted beans fared better than the later-planted ones, national yield could drop even further in November or January as those results are realized.

Earlier-planted crops are often at less risk because they can go through pollination and fill under less stressful weather conditions, but this cannot be generalized as the performance of early versus late varies both regionally and year by year.

Early-October harvest progress does not necessarily indicate the likely movement in USDA’s yield estimates going forward, but data since 2000 suggests that reductions after October took place when this pace was ahead of average, not behind.

Final January yield landed lower than the October peg three times (2000, 2003, 2010) and early-October harvest was ahead of average in those years. Final yield came in below USDA’s November number five times since 2000, and in four of those times the same harvest pace was quicker than normal.

However, the low amount of data points in this analysis is certainly limiting, or perhaps it just proves how rare it would be if final 2017 yield ends up lower than 49.5 bu./acre.

Despite the potentially shrinking U.S. soybean crop, domestic and global soybean supplies are still comfortable, for now. But like the U.S. yield situation, analysts know that soybean carry-outs are highly subject to change throughout the marketing year, and this may continue to support the uncertainty going forward.

USDA projects 2017-18 U.S. ending stocks at 430 million bushels, higher than the year-ago 2016-17 prediction of 395 million. Final 2016-17 carry-out came in lower than earlier ideas at 301 million bushels, and interestingly, USDA’s initial May 2016 figure for last year’s ending stocks of 305 million bushels was the closest of any other estimate to the final.

Similar to the U.S. stocks, USDA has also had a tendency to reduce the global soybean carry-out estimates over time.

In the report, USDA placed global carry-out in 2017-18 at 96.05 million tonnes, which is the amount of soybeans the world is predicted to have approximately one year from now. This would be an all-time high, narrowly topping last year’s 94.86 million.

However, USDA’s global trimming trend was massively violated in 2016-17 as carry-out has swelled nearly 40 per cent since the initial numbers were published, the result of substantially higher production volumes worldwide.

But last year’s U.S. carry-out slimmed down anyway, as much of the global supply has built in South America. When the local 2016-17 soybean marketing years end in March 2018 for Argentina and January 2018 for Brazil, the former will be holding a landslide record amount of soybeans and the latter’s inventory will hit a six-year high.

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The November contract briefly traded above the 200-day moving average of $497 per tonne on Sept. 22, on the back of some fund buying triggered by a rally in Chicago soybeans. However, that key chart point held as resistance, and the contract finished the week closer to its 20-day average, at $494.80 per tonne. The contract finds itself right in the middle of a broad range from about $475-$525 per tonne.

The canola harvest saw setbacks in Alberta during the week, with cool and wet conditions including snow in some cases. However, farmers continued to make good progress elsewhere across the Prairies, and the market remains focused on a large crop. Producer deliveries into the commercial pipeline topped half a million tonnes for the third straight week in the latest Canadian Grain Commission data, which should leave end-users with little reason to bid up the market.

Statistics Canada on Sept. 19 released an updated model-based production estimate that uses satellite imagery, rather than farmer surveys, to gauge the size of the crop. The model-based number for canola, 19.7 million tonnes, would be a new record, and compares with the August survey of 18.2 million. While that’s already a large number, many analysts are still looking higher, pencilling a ‘20’ in their supply/demand calculations.

However, even with a record-large crop, world demand for oilseeds remains strong as well and any production issues elsewhere in the world could provide the spark that would break canola out of its sideways range.

The U.S. soybean harvest is just getting started, while South American farmers will soon be seeding their next soybean crop. Early U.S. soybean yields reports are beating expectations, but only four per cent of the crop was in the bin in the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report. In South America, traders are watching dry conditions in Brazil and excessive moisture in Argentina, with both extremes likely to cut into the crop prospects.

With actual U.S. yields still up in the air as the harvest progresses, traders may be reluctant to push soybeans or corn too far one way or the other.

In wheat markets, futures trended higher over the course of the week, with the Minneapolis spring wheat contracts outpacing the Chicago and Kansas City winter wheats to the upside. Concerns over tightening supplies of higher-protein wheat accounted for some of the relative strength in Minneapolis, while relatively favourable winter wheat seeding conditions in the southern U.S. Plains limited the upside in those contracts.

Reports of large Russian wheat supplies also weighed on prices to some extent, although those big crops were countered by dryness concerns in Australia and the excessive moisture in Argentina.

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Blackleg symptoms are easiest to identify when stems are cut at the base. The perfect time to scout is at harvest, so bring your clippers along and jump off the swather or combine from time to time.

Soybean aphids continue to be a concern in some fields, with insecticide applications having occurred. In some soybean fields natural enemy populations seem to be building in response to the soybean aphids. Management decisions are further complicated in some fields as the soybean move towards the R6 growth stage.

High levels of bertha armyworm larvae continue to be reported from some canola fields in western Manitoba.

Sclerotinia stem rot in canola

The canola disease survey is continuing or wrapping up across the province. Levels of blackleg, sclerotinia stem rot, aster yellows, and verticillium wilt have all been observed. Most disease levels are low overall due to the lack of moisture throughout the growing season and timely fungicide applications for diseases like sclerotinia stem rot. Higher levels of sclerotinia stem rot have been observed in canola fields in the Carman area, with one field showing more than 50 per cent incidence of affected plants. The general rule of thumb is that yield loss equals 0.5 x incidence. Therefore, if a field is showing approximately 50 per cent incidence, yield loss could be estimated around 25 per cent. However, this estimate changes depending on the severity of the disease.

Soybean aphids: Growth stages most susceptible

The R1 (beginning bloom) to R5 (beginning seed) growth stages are the most susceptible to feeding by soybean aphids. Once plants move into the R6 (full seed) stage, soybean aphids will have less of an impact on yield. In the R6 stage, pods contain green seeds that fills the pod cavity at one of the four uppermost nodes on the main stem. Once the seeds are filling the pod cavity full yield potential has occurred, and soybean aphids are no longer an economic threat to the crop.

The University of Wisconsin has a good guide to soybean stages and soybean aphids (PDF).

To read the full Manitoba Insect & Disease Update, visit the Manitoba Agriculture website.

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The more favourable weather conditions are allowing some acres impacted by excess moisture to recover. However, continuing wet field conditions and symptoms of excess moisture continue to be noted across most regions. As fields continue to dry, the impact of the excessive moisture to yield potentials become more evident.

Fungicide applications are also on-going, with many producers opting for aerial application where fields remain too wet for ground application.

Sporadic rainfall, high humidity and excessive moisture continue to impact first cut haying operations in areas, although producers were able to make progress.

• Click here for the Crop Weather Report for the week ending July 3

Southwest Region

Most of the Southwest Region received rainfall over the past week. There was 15 to 50 mm of precipitation, with larger amounts coming in thunderstorms and in the south and eastern parts of the region. Water lying in fields is starting to cause crop to yellow and impact growth.

Cereal crops continue to progress under good growing conditions. Many earlier seeded fields are done flowering and have received a fungicide application. Later seeded fields are starting to head. Winter wheat and fall rye are in the head filling stage. Crop appears to be average to above average.

Canola is in various stages throughout the region with early seeded canola in full bloom and has had fungicide applied for sclerotina. Later seeded canola is starting to bolt. Crop is in good to excellent condition.

Soybeans are in the fourth to fifth trifoliate stage and are doing well. Some fields have plants that are yellowing due to moisture stress. Flax is in early flower stage and producers are scouting for fungicide application. Sunflowers and corn are in the vegetative stages and is progressing well in the warm, humid conditions.

Hay yields are average to above average with some harvesting issues due to wet conditions; some producers are opting to silage. Alfalfa weevil is causing damage in some areas. Pastures are rated in good condition with the recent rainfall. Dugouts are 90 per cent full.

Northwest Region

There was rainfall throughout the Northwest Region over the weekend, with amounts ranging from 10 mm in The Pas, up to 48 mm in parts of the Roblin area and from 17 to 100 mm in the Swan River Valley. There was severe winds and heavy rain early Monday in the Swan River area but possible impact on crops are not yet known.

For the most part, crops throughout the region are advancing nicely and are in good to excellent condition, with the exception of those crops recovering from excessive moisture and recent rainfall events. With regards to crop stage of growth, regionally, 20 per cent of the wheat is elongating and 80 per cent is heading. Canola growth has progressed rapidly over the past week although growth stage is, to some extent, variable within the same areas. Approximately 10 per cent of the later seeded canola is at the rosette stage, 40 per cent of the canola in the region is bolting and 50 per cent of the canola is flowering. Approximately 20 per cent of the field peas are in the vegetative stage of growth and 80 per cent are blooming. Most of the soybeans are in the vegetative stage of growth with some fields in flower.

Herbicide treatments are generally complete throughout the region. Fungicide applications to spring wheat and canola fields are being made where disease risk exists. Reports of insect and disease damage are limited.

Significant rainfall this past week slowed haying progress down. Many producers are waiting prior to cutting and those fields already cut have not been dry enough to bale with the frequent rains. Warm, dry weather is needed this week to dry up fields. In areas where showers were more scattered around Ste. Rose and McCreary, some fields were dry enough for baling. Silaging of alfalfa grass fields continues as well. Pasture growth is abundant with adequate water for livestock.

Central Region

Temperatures were variable this past week in the Central Region, but good crop growth was still seen. There was lower accumulation of rain for much of the region, but impact of previous heavy rains continues to be an issue. Showers continue to interfere with pesticide applications and haying operations, but some weather breaks allowed for many acres to see aerial fungicide applications. Highest amounts of rainfall in the region: Somerset 20 mm; Manitou 30 mm; and Notre Dame reported up to 100 mm. Scattered reports of hail continue, with some crop damage reported in the Somerset, Swan Lake and Notre Dame areas in Wednesday’s storm. Some areas saw additional accumulations of up to 15 mm on the weekend. Hail claims continue to be made for damage done in earlier storms.

Excess moisture continues to be the concern; more advanced crops have been better able to handle higher rainfall amounts, although stand thinning is evident in those crops as well. Yellowing of crop due to excess moisture is evident. Standing water is still prevalent in lower spots of fields. Ruts are visible in fields where herbicide applications had to be made in less than perfect conditions; these will present challenges at harvest. Ground rigs are struggling to make fungicide applications as fields are soft.

Cereals are growing rapidly and stem elongation has begun in all of the later seeded fields. Heading stage is reached in all spring cereals, dependent on seeding date. Fungicide applications continue, both to flag leaf and to headed wheat. Timing for fusarium head blight is a challenge due to uneven crop stages. Lodging is reported in some of the earliest seeded fields; a result of high winds and thunderstorm activity. The most advanced wheat fields have fully formed kernels.

The later seeded canola is growing rapidly, and most acres are bolting to early flower stages. Podding is seen in the most advanced fields. Fungicide applications continue as the crop comes into the correct stage. Where stands are not as good, particularly due to excess moisture and/or earlier frost injury, fungicide applications are not planned.

Corn is growing rapidly. Uniformity of stand is inconsistent in many fields. Soybeans are as advanced as the seventh trifoliate stage, depending on seeding date. Iron chlorois deficiency is noticeable in a number of fields, and some varietal differences are noted. Nodulation appears to be successful and nitrogen fixation has begun. Flowering has started. Second herbicide applications continue where timing and weed pressure warrant.

Flowering in peas continues and podding has begun. Stands look good where excess moisture is not an issue. Plants in low areas are starting to die back; more losses will be seen as soils dry due to poor/damaged roots.

Fall rye and winter wheat are progressing well. Fields are in good to excellent condition as they continue to mature. Fall rye harvest is expected to begin in the next two weeks.

Diamondback moth trapping is now complete; numbers to date are generally low to moderate for the region. Bertha armyworm trap numbers are low to moderate. Some minor grasshopper feeding reported. Pea aphids are being found during scouting, but numbers are below threshold. Monitoring continues in headed cereals. Although higher numbers of English grain aphid and bird-cherry oat aphid have been seen in some crop canopies since early May, presence of beneficial predators are keeping numbers below threshold.

Forages are growing quickly. Alfalfa is blooming and tame grasses are heading out. Haying continues; some are ensiling due to the frequent rains. The moisture has generally been beneficial to the hay and pasture, although some fields are quite wet. Average yields expected for first cut hay: alfalfa 1.5 to 2 tons per acre; grass/alfalfa 1.75 tons per acre; other tame hay 1.5 tons per acre. Up to 40 per cent of cutting and baling operations were not done last week due to rain events, and putting up dry hay continues to be a significant challenge. Livestock water supply is adequate.

Eastern Region

Rainfall accumulations in the Eastern Region were minimal over the past week. Field operations resumed as good drying weather prevailed. In northern districts, where more rain has fallen in past weeks, fields have also dried significantly and field operations resumed. However, producers were making ruts as conditions were still wet but passable. Loss of yield potential due to excess moisture continues to occur across the Eastern Region.

Winter cereals range from milk stage to early dough stage. Spring cereals range from head emergence to flowering. Canola development ranges from early to full flowering. Field peas are flowering. Most soybeans range from the third to sixth trifoliate leaf stage; plants have begun to flower. The yellowing in soybeans, attributed to excess moisture, iron deficiency chlorosis and transitional N deficiency symptoms, has begun to dissipate. Corn ranges from V12 to V13 and is looking very good.

First pass herbicide applications are complete in the Eastern Region. Second pass of glyphosate in soybeans will continue in northern districts where possible. Fungicide applications targeted at fusarium head blight suppression in spring cereals will wrap up later this week. Fungicide applications on canola are on-going. Up to 25 per cent of planned fungicide applications may be cancelled in northern districts because of the loss in yield potential caused by the recent excessive rainfall.

Across the region, the majority of hay land and pasture land is rated in good condition. Hay harvest continues, with most of the hay harvested as silage with very little as dry hay due to the wet conditions. First cut haying progress is reported as 15 per cent baled or silaged with an additional 10 per cent cut and the remainder of the crop still standing. Quality is rated as mostly good with alfalfa hay yielding 2 tons per acre and grass/alfalfa hay yielding 1.75 tons per acre. Pastures are in good shape with livestock grazing high spots in the fields as the low spots are saturated. Availability of livestock water is adequate.

Interlake Region

Warm temperatures and scattered showers were experienced throughout the Interlake Region last week. Rainfall amounts ranged from 5 to 35 mm. The majority of the week’s precipitation came on Sunday when a storm system moved in from the south. Arborg and Inwood received the highest amounts ranging from 20 to 35 mm while the rest of the Interlake Region received 5 to 15 mm. Parts of the South Interlake are still dealing with moisture issues from previous week’s rainfall.

Spraying continues as producers have started applying fungicides to spring wheat fields to suppress fusarium head blight. Spring cereals range from four to six leaf stage to heading. Some cereals planted for greenfeed in the North Interlake are at the two to four leaf stage. Winter wheat fields have finished flowering and are mostly in the milk stage. Canola staging varies from seedling to 30 to 40 per cent flowering. With ample moisture and warm temperatures soybeans and corn have developed rapidly. Corn staging ranges from V10 to V12. Soybeans are starting to yellow in areas due to moisture and iron chlorosis deficiency. Soybean staging varies from third to fifth trifoliate stage, and fields that were seeded later are at first to second trifoliate stage.

Majority of timothy seed fields have flowered. Alfalfa seed fields continue to flower as producers should complete bee release this week. Spraying fungicides on crops in areas of South and North Interlake is occurring by airplane to avoid making ruts in fields. Hopefully, with warm temperatures and dry conditions producers should be able to get back into fields mid-week. In some fields, producers are considering not spraying fungicides due to the poor crop conditions.

Haying has been hampered by periodic rains preventing hay from drying and curing. Alfalfa weevil pressure continues in some fields, and maturity of alfalfa is reducing hay quality. Native and grass hay yields continue to increase. Grasshopper damage so far is minimal. Pastures are in good condition.

The post Manitoba Crop Report and Crop Weather report: No. 10 appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

The annual Manitoba Agriculture event was held for the first time at the Manitoba Beef and Forage Initiative’s (MFBI) Brookdale site after two years in participating farmers’ fields.

It attracted more than 100 producers seeking information on how to produce top-quality hay every season and featured extension specialists from across the province.

“We are lucky enough to have this facility here and this is the first field day that we have had producers come,” said Pam Iwanchysko, farm production extension specialist with Manitoba Agriculture. “I am hoping that we can show some of our efforts today that we have been working so hard at over the past year.”

The day’s presentations focused on how to harvest high-quality hay, fertility tips for optimum forage production and equipment demonstrations of various makes of central pivot disc mowers and balers.

Experts on hand discussed the importance of cutting hay at the proper time.

“The quality of alfalfa varies a lot with the timing of cutting,” said Tim Clarke, a range and pasture extension specialist with Manitoba Agriculture. “What is most noticeable is that the forage digestibility decreases with time. So, the earlier we cut, the more digestible the forage and we end up with higher energy and higher protein in the baled product.”

Farmers are often tempted to wait to cut to acquire high yields, said Ray Bittner, a Manitoba Agriculture livestock extension specialist. However, he said that is often not the best way for a producer to get the most out of their hay stand.

“By waiting for increased yields, you may not be rewarding yourself as much as you think,” Bittner said. “Yes, you have lots of bales. But your dry matter digestibility is dropping, so are you really getting more? You may be able to take the crop earlier, when the forage yield is lower, and get just as many mouthfuls of nutrition as by waiting and getting the higher yield.”

When cutting, Clarke recommends cutting alfalfa/grass at about three to five inches in order to condition it properly so that the stems kink every two or three inches.

Forage producers were also warned to avoid cutting during the critical fall rest period.

“We recommend not cutting the hay during the critical rest period from August 20 until you get a -4 C frost. During that time frame you are putting your crop at risk for winterkill,” Clarke said.

He also suggests that forage quality can be better with a wider swath, as more of it is exposed to light allowing it to dry down faster.

“The quicker we can get our plants to dry down to where we can bale them, the more energy we are going to have in the stored hay afterwards,” Clarke said.

Optimum baling time is between 14 to 18 per cent moisture, or lower for larger bales.

Clarke warns that raking and storage can play a role in dry matter loss, recommending to try and set the rake so that it does not touch the ground and store bales on as dry ground as possible, preferably with roof cover.

The use of bale wraps was discussed and according to Bittner, they can certainly be beneficial in keeping bale temperatures down and reducing mould, but only if you are applying enough plastic.

“When you go with a very thin layer of plastic, your heat definitely still generates. You may have the bale covered but it is still heating up,” Bittner said. “The more wraps you put on, the cooler the temperatures stay. When the temperatures drop, your quality is going to be way better and you are going to be burning off a lot less energy. So, don’t scrimp on plastic.”

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Remember 170 is used to determine HAY DAY with the target being hay that is 150. Typically you could loose 15-20 points of RFV during the curing process. For silage that is taken up the same day losses are considerably less.

The other point is that some of the grasses are starting to head which makes it an ideal time for putting up Dairy Quality hay.

For the Western/Interlake and Central Manitoba, it looks like for most of these areas you should be cutting around May 30 if you are targeting for dairy quality hay at an RFV of 150. RFV has been dropping at a rate of 7pts/day in most areas and by targeting your first cut around 170 that allows for a 15-20 pt drop in RFV due to curing. For those that are taking silage you should be able to delay your cutting by 1-2 days.

Click here to read the full Green Gold Report for Eastern Manitoba as a free PDF.

Click here to read the full Green Gold Report for Western/Interlake Manitoba as a free PDF.

Click here to read the full Green Gold Report for Central Manitoba as a free PDF.

John McGregor, MFGA

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