“We are getting those calls, pretty much every day … guys saying, ‘I haven’t grown flax in 10 years, but I’m thinking about putting it in,’ ” said Fehr, procurement and marketing manager with Prairie Premium Products Inc., a flax and pea processor near Portage la Prairie, Man.

In its March 12 acreage projections, Statistics Canada forecast 448,000 acres of flaxseed in 2025, down from 503,000 acres in 2024 and significantly lower than historical flax acres in Western Canada.

Tariffs change the picture

The StatCan estimates are based on farmer surveys done in December and January, long before U.S. president Donald Trump unleashed his trade war on Canada, Europe, China, Mexico and other nations.

Plus, in early March, China announced it will apply 100 per cent tariffs on canola oil and meal from Canada, starting March 20.

The tariff, trade and political chaos has been catastrophic for canola futures. Prices have declined $90 to $100 per tonne since the middle of February, so prairie farmers are looking for alternative crops to plant this spring.

Flax could be an option.

Flaxseed prices have held up – so far

The supply of flax is on the “tighter side,” Fehr said. Stat Can has pegged 2024 production at 258,000 tonnes, well below 2022, when Canadian farmers produced 473,000 tonnes.

Flaxseed prices have held up this winter, despite the market uncertainty and tariff chaos.

New crop bids are in the range of $17-$18 per bushel, Fehr said.

“With that being said, these prices are very volatile … with all the politics and everything going on.”

Current prices for flax could be even higher. In late February, Rayglen Commodities posted an old crop price for brown flax at $19.25 per bu.

Farmers still deciding

If a grower achieves a yield of 30 bu. an acre, or higher, flax could be very profitable in 2025.

That’s a big “if” because average flax yields are typically in the 20s.

Last year, the average flax yield in Saskatchewan was 23 bu. per acre, using estimates from Saskatchewan Agriculture. Nonetheless, prairie farmers who consistently grow flax and have figured out the agronomy do report yields of 30 to 35 bu. per acre.

With the political turmoil and uncertainty in the commodity markets, a lot could happen between Mid-March and seeding time. Growers could shift some acres to flax, or they may not.

“I think a lot of the farmers are still (deciding) what they’re going to do…. That seems to be the sentiment that I’m getting out of (the) calls and conversations,” Fehr said

“There’s going to be a lot of potential swing acres, at the very last minute.”

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

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Cash prices for flax across Western Canada ranged from C$13.20 to C$15.75 per bushel for old crop delivered, with new crop at C$16.30, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Those in North Dakota were steady at the Canadian dollar equivalent of C$13.91 to C$15.94/bu. delivered for old crop, with no new crop prices listed by Prairie Ag.

“It’s going to be a good year for flax because acres are projected to be down again and we are seeing less guys who are going to be flax growers,” commented Scott Shiels of Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton, Sask.

He stressed that flax is a particularly difficult crop to grow, one that’s not conducive to every area. Of the flax grown on the Prairies, he said it’s only been the brown flax that’s he’s seen upward price movement.

Planted flax acres continued to decline in Canada and the United States. Last month Statistics Canada projected flax acres on the Prairies to drop to 510,300 acres in 2024/25, down from 609,200 the year before and the 778,900 sown in 2022/23. The region is the only part of the country that has continued to grow flax with any measurable data.

This year will mark the first time since 1950 that Canadian planted flax acres were below 600,000 when 584,000 were seeded. As well, this would be the smallest area planted since 1940 when 381,500 acres were seeded.

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture set flax acres at 105,000, split almost evenly between Montana and North Dakota. Flax area will drop from last year’s 178,000 acres seeded last year and the 263,000 in 2022/23.

“A lot of times when the first acre reports come out and acres are lower, it will push up the old crop prices,” Shiels explained.

Besides reduced acres, he also stated prices have risen on the Canadian Prairies more likely due to buyers finding themselves short.

“That’s a good opportunity for the farmer,” he said, however there’s a downside to be cautious of.

“It seems to be one of easiest crops for customers and buyers to import,” Shiels warned, noting that foreign flax is often as good of quality as Canadian flax.

“We’ve seen it in the past, that guys are waiting too long” before prices suddenly drop, he added.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg

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In a report released late last month, StatCan projected only 689,000 acres of flaxseed to be planted this spring, an 11.6 per cent decrease from the year before. More significantly, the total number of flax acres would be the fewest since 1950.

While flaxseed area in Manitoba is expected to expand 40 per cent to 71,200 acres, Saskatchewan and Alberta were projected to see declines of 11.7 and 31.6 per cent to 527,300 and 88,000 acres, respectively.

Greg Sundquist, chair of the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission (SaskFlax), said StatCan’s estimate for flax acres is “very close.” While flax prices are doing well, those for other commodities were outperforming the oilseed, he said.

“Canola, wheat, barley. With the pricing there, we haven’t been able to attract acres,” Sundquist said. “The people that grow flax really like to grow flax. Flax can be very profitable as other crops right now.”

The high-delivered bid for Saskatchewan flax as of Friday was $16 per bushel — $21 lower than one year earlier, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. This compared to the high-delivered bid for Saskatchewan canola at $17.24/bu.

Other issues that have continued to deter growers from flax include variable yields and the removal of flax straw after harvest, according to Sundquist.

Canadian flax has been effectively shut out of European and Chinese markets due to the influx of cheaper products from Russia and Kazakhstan. As a result, the Canadian flax market has focused on satiating U.S. food demand as well as its own.

“We’re supplying the U.S. for their needs and Canadian needs. Flax has gotten to be more of a food (product) just due to the health benefit of flax and that translates into human food, pet food, livestock food and a lot of it is going into the U.S.,” Sundquist said, adding that Canada’s flax industry is trying to break into the Mexican market.

Flax is very disease-resistant compared to canola, as well as cheaper to grow, and can be quite profitable, he said, adding the lack of flax acres will become a temporary setback.

“It depends on the markets (and) what prices have to go to in order to attract more flax acres,” Sundquist said. “Is it a permanent thing? I’m not sure. Is it a temporary thing? I hope so.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Statistics Canada revised its seeded acreage estimate downward in late June and that, combined with lower carryout stocks and several other factors, should bring strong prices.

“Given the demand in the market from China, the United States and potentially even the European Union, I really think demand for flax is going to be strong,” said Wayne Thompson, executive director of the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission.

StatsCan reported 885,000 acres of flax seeded in its June report, down from 1.04 million last year and 941,000 in 2016.

The shortfall of about 100,000 acres compared to a year ago, combined with acreage declines in North Dakota, the key flax-producing region in the U.S., EU issues with flax from the Black Sea region exceeding maximum residue limits for pesticides and good Chinese demand should hold flax prices reasonably high, Thompson said.

“The demand from China, I can’t say it’s taking off yet, but the interest in China continues to grow,” he said.

Brennan Turner, CEO at FarmLead, an online grain marketplace, said he too is bullish on flax.

Flax posted price gains of four percent in June, he said, and he expects a continued steady performance.

“We’re not saying like it’s wildly bullish, like it’s going to be $20 or anything like that, but keying into that $13 range certainly is a possibility.”

Flax currently sells for about $12 per bushel.

“So pretty positive, but again, the market is playing pretty hand-to-mouth, if you will, and this is just a little more sentiment as to where prices could go and relative to ending stocks that we’re seeing right now.”

Flax stocks as of March were reported to be 327,000 tonnes, down from 417,000 at the same time in 2016.

Thompson said his optimistic outlook already factors in competition from Kazakhstan and Russia. Those countries have steadily increased flax production over the last three years and are wooing Chinese buyers, which will limit gains for Canadian flax.

However, the push for healthier diets from a growing middle class in China will continue to pressure supplies, he said.

Thompson said the crop in the ground has started off well, although most plants could use a nice rain. He cautioned that the recent hot spell will have to ease soon.

“The crops are not doing so well these last few days to a week, with the 30-plus or close to 30-degree days.”

Turner added he’s heard concerns about the reliability of the U.S. market because that’s where a lot of the Canadian crop usually goes. But he said the supply/demand fundamentals remain positive.

This year’s seeded acreage estimate marks a 29 per cent decline from the five-year average, he said.

Thompson said that number includes the highly successful peak year in 2014, when farmers seeded 1.605 million acres. The numbers have come down steadily since.

“We’d like to hit that high again.”

Many farmers saw strong prices the year before and flax seemed like a good economic decision. Two years later, lentils became the darling and flax acres fell to 941,387.

“More people grew lentils that year, purely based on the expected profit,” Thompson said.

Lately, he said acreage has remained relatively steady and most of the present change is due to Manitoba acres shifting into soybeans. Saskatchewan and Alberta have remained roughly steady.

— Terry Fries writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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“There’s no big hurrahs right now on flax… I hate to say it, I’m a very optimistic type of person, but it’s kind of a flat market right now,” said Ben Friesen, senior market manager at Scoular Special Crops.

For the past year the flax market has been pretty steady with no big changes, according to Friesen. Brown flax has hung around the $12.50-$13.50 per bushel range.

At Ilta Grain, senior commodity trader Mike Allaire said they have been buying flax at prices even lower than that over the last year.

Current bids, he said, are around the $11.50-$12 per bushel range, with bids on average falling around $12-$12.50 per bushel for the past year. However, he doesn’t remember buying any flax in the last year for more than $12.25 per bushel.

The low prices and flat market are due to loss of market share overseas. The Black Sea region has upped its production of all crops, including flax, and is undercutting Canada’s prices in the Chinese and European markets.

“It’s just a lot cheaper to ship from (the Black Sea), freight-wise, and they’re happy with quality as well. So that’s taking away from us,” Allaire said.

Last year’s crop was one of the best Allaire has seen, quality-wise, but as a trader he just hasn’t been able to beat the prices at which other countries are selling flax.

“We’re (exporting) a little bit more to the U.S. this year because of their small crop. But the unfortunate thing about it is that we probably have the best flax quality I’ve ever seen in my life and we’re not able to export it overseas.”

The outlook for principal field crops released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada on Feb. 16 predicted flaxseed prices will be between $12 and $12.75 per bushel for 2018. Flax acres are expected to decrease from 1,040,300 in 2017 to 1,037,800 this year.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s prediction doesn’t surprise Friesen, who expects to see a slight dip in flax acres.

“I do believe that they will, due to different reasons… I don’t know if (acres will drop) terribly significantly but they will probably slack off a bit.”

Neither Scoular nor Ilta have new-crop pricing out yet for flax. Allaire hasn’t heard any inquiries yet from grain buyers with Ilta about flax prices.

Overall, it has been a bleak year so far for the Canadian flax industry. In January the Flax Council of Canada shut its physical office in Winnipeg, saying it would continue to operate online with a single part-time employee.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @AshleyMR1993 on Twitter.

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Flax fields in western Manitoba saw thunderstorms and powerful winds, which knocked out power in some areas of the province during the weekend. Parts of southeastern Saskatchewan received flash flooding, with more rain expected in the coming week.

“We’re trying to get a handle on what that means and how extensive the rain was over the weekend,” said Don Kerr, president at the Flax Council of Canada in Winnipeg.

Prior to recent rains, crops were in good condition, he added.

Flax prices have ticked up slightly following estimates from Statistics Canada, which show acres lower than previously thought, he said.

“It was actually a bit of a surprise to most of the marketplace, because I think traders were anticipating that the acres would be slightly higher than the first report,” he said.

In May, StatsCan said flax had lost a third of acres from year-ago levels, with estimates showing about 1.115 million acres seeded this year.

In June, those estimates were revised downward to about 925,000 acres. Analyst estimates collected by CNS Canada ahead of the report came in between 1.1 million and 1.5 million acres.

The data has had an effect on prices, Kerr said, although he expects flax to remain in ample supply this year.

“We have a pretty large carryover from last year, so overall supplies we should be similar to what we had about a year ago,” he said.

Flax prices in Western Canada are between $11.08 and $11.50 a bushel, according to data from Prairie Ag Hotwire.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.

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“It’s the year of the pulses, and certainly growers are taking advantage of good prices for pulses,” said Don Kerr, president at the Flax Council of Canada, referring to the United Nations General Assembly’s declaration of 2016 as the International Year of Pulses.

“That’s definitely had an impact on the acres of flax this year.”

This year’s seeded flax area is estimated at 1.1 million acres, compared with 1.6 million acres the year prior, according to Statistics Canada data.

The flax industry is working to become more competitive against other options growers have, Kerr said.

The council wants to increase benefits to producers by increasing yields and export markets.

The flax council estimates mean producer yield at about 22 bushels an acre. The group wants to increase those levels to 27 bushels an acre by 2020, and 32 bushels an acre by 2025.

One of the issues curbing yields, Kerr said, is the absence of herbicide-tolerant varieties of flax.

The Flax Council is working with a U.S.-based company to develop a non-GMO, herbicide-tolerant variety of flax, which Kerr said has long-term benefits for improving yield per acre.

Short-term, the council is working on developing and distributing data which could help growers use best management practises, he added.

“There are growers in Western Canada that can produce 40 bushels an acre of flaxseed,” he said.

“It’s just a matter of trying to take that information and compile it so that we can give all flax growers in Western Canada the information they need to hopefully achieve better yields.”

The council is also looking at becoming more competitive, price-wise, by expanding and developing markets in China and India.

“The Chinese market is huge, and we’ve seen the imports into China increase dramatically.”

China currently buys 353,000 tonnes of flax from Canada, according to data from the Flax Council of Canada, but the council hopes those numbers will increase to 450,000 by 2020 and 550,000 by 2025.

“China, in general, is a market that is just going to continue to grow,” Kerr said.

Another potential market for flax is India, Kerr said. “Basically we’re talking about a market at least the size of China.”

India produces its own small crop of flax, but Kerr said there’s growing consumer demand within the country.

“We think that over the next 10 years India could emerge as a market that could really expand our exports for flaxseed.”

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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One market participant says weaker prices have influenced farmers, while another says smaller crops are often overlooked during surveys.

StatsCan estimates flax’s seeded area at about 1.1 million acres, compared with 1.6 million acres the previous year.

“Prices held fairly low, compared to what farmers expected,” said Michael Popowich, co-owner of TA Foods at Yorkton, Sask.

Since flax came off fields last September, price increases have been minimal, he added.

Prices are about $2-$3 per bushel weaker than they normally are in the spring, he said.

Delivered elevator flax is about $10.65 per bushel in Saskatchewan, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

“I think that probably has influenced a lot of farmers to look another direction, for at least one year.”

Poor export movement to China and high acres in 2015 kept pressure on prices over the course of the year.

“That just kind of led to a little bit of oversupply,” Popowich said.

Sometimes farmers don’t keep smaller crops in mind during surveys, said Neil Townsend, director of market research at G3 Canada in Winnipeg.

In future data, he added, there could be a “reversion to mean” in final results.

“You never know with those smaller (crops). We’ll see how it all unfolds out here.”

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.

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Flax’s cost of production is higher than many of its rivals and the growing lustre of pulse crops could cut into some acres, according to one industry watcher.

“It’s too early to really throw a number at it, but right now my instincts are it’s going to be down 10 per cent,” said Grant Fehr, a senior merchandiser for Scoular Special Crops at Morden, Man.

This contrasts with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s recent prediction that 1.73 million acres will go in the ground during 2016-17.

Last year, 1.64 million acres were seeded to flax in Canada, a slight increase from the previous year’s total of 1.59 million.

Fehr said another reason believes acres could be down is the growing speculation that peas and lentils are going to be planted “big time” in Saskatchewan.

Acres of canola and wheat to be seeded will also dictate flax acres, but at this point he said it’s too early to say how much wheat and canola there will be.

“Our cost of production shows (for flax) it’s pretty much a wash, so it’s hard to say where it’s going to be at,” said Fehr.

In flax’s favour right now, however, is its price. “We’ve got a $12 new-crop contract out there, which is an attractive contract for flax.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“A million tonnes is what they’re talking about for Canada,” said Richard Zacharias, general manager of Prairie Flax Products near Portage la Prairie, Man.

While the majority of the crop still has to come off, samples Zacharias has seen so far have left him optimistic.

“The quality is good, the yields are good; they’ll be average to above-average,” he said.

The yields he’s seen lead him to think the crop could average 30 bushels an acre, he said, which would be up slightly from last year’s output.

According to Prairie Ag Hotwire, a bushel of flax is selling for $12, slightly softer than a year ago.

“The market is probably going down a bit because it was really a big crop this year, so once you get a larger supply the demand obviously is eased a bit, so prices do tend to go down a little,” Zacharias said. “It is certainly not going up, that’s for sure.”

One saving grace has been the decline in the Canadian dollar. “Seventy per cent of our sales are in U.S. dollars,” said Zacharias.

Flax’s three main uses are in the bakery sector, pet food and animal feed.

While the flax harvest is well underway, Zacharias said more half of it is still on the field — partly because of how well it handles the cold.

“You can actually harvest it after a dead frost; it doesn’t get damaged.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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