Management decisions, particularly around nutrients, may be playing a bigger role than many growers realize.

Canola yields across the Prairies have largely stopped climbing over the past decade, settling into an average in the low 40 bushels per acre range after years of steady gains.

Yield data since 2016 show similar flattening across spring wheat, barley and field peas, suggesting a broader constraint affecting cool-season crops. Weather is the explanation most often cited for the slowdown, and Jurke doesn’t dispute it.

“Weather caused the plateau,” Jurke told an audience at the Manitoba Agronomists Conference late last year.

“But why was it 40? Why was it not 42, 45 or 50? That’s where things become more interesting.”

Jurke, who previously worked with the Canola Council of Canada, said at a national level, fertilizer-use surveys show average fertility programs appear calibrated to maintain the plateau rather than push beyond it.

He stressed this is not a criticism of individual farms. Fertility strategies vary widely across the Prairies, and many growers are already managing for higher yield potential.

“But at a macro level, this is what we’re feeding,” he said.

“We’re at the 40 bu. mark because we’re feeding a 40 bu. crop.”

The complete package

That pattern is reinforced by long-term research.

A multi-year study led by Agriculture Canada in the 2010s compared canola systems using what researchers described as a “full package” and an “empty package” of inputs.

The full-package system combined strong genetics, higher seeding rates, adequate fertility and robust weed control. The empty-package system did the opposite, cutting seed quality, fertilizer and herbicide use.

The results were clear. Full-package systems produced the highest yields and the strongest profitability.

When inputs were dialed back, yields declined, but profitability often fell even faster. Cutting fertility caused the largest yield penalty of all.

“This is an important realization, and why I like to communicate this particular study,” said Jurke.

Reducing inputs can feel like prudent risk management, particularly when weather-driven uncertainty is high, but Jurke said the data suggest that approach often works against growers in canola, which responds best when best management practices are applied together rather than selectively.

Jurke said the contrast is evident when looking at how canola responded to hybridization and herbicide tolerance in the late 1990s and early 2000s, compared with its struggle to break out of the current range.

The tools that drove earlier gains are still in place, but they only deliver when growers are willing to invest across the full management package.

“Anytime we have growers considering dialing back, they’re potentially putting themselves in a situation where they’re reducing their productive capacity,” Jurke said.

Beyond fertility

Factors beyond fertility also contribute to yield drag.

National data suggest disease pressure, including blackleg and verticillium stripe, is trimming a couple of bushels from average yields. Tight rotations add further pressure because shorter breaks between canola crops increase stress and reduce resilience.

Managing for the plateau

Jurke said the broader lesson remains straightforward. Managing conservatively may reduce risk in the short term, but it can also lock the crop into a lower-yield, lower-return equilibrium.

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Barges of imported urea nitrogen fertilizer were purchased this week at the Port of New Orleans for export overseas, said Josh Linville, vice president for fertilizer at financial services firm StoneX.

“We saw a lot of physical barges that were being traded. They were linked to exports,” Linville said, adding, “It is feasible to buy barges on the Mississippi River, reload them on a vessel, and ship them out.”

Since the U.S. and Israel launched a war with Iran on February 28, nitrogen fertilizer prices have soared, with more than 30 per cent of global exports caught in Iran’s near closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Israel said on Friday the waterway had fully reopened after Israel’s ceasefire with Lebanon, sending oil prices sharply down.

Cheaper NOLA fertilizer offers profit opportunity

But while global fertilizer prices have soared, U.S. prices at New Orleans have remained about $170 (C$233) per short ton cheaper, providing buyers an opportunity to profit from the price difference.

With U.S. spring planting under way, some farmer groups and Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri have accused fertilizer companies of price gouging. But Linville said U.S. prices are so low compared to overseas markets that urea nitrogen fertilizer bound for the U.S. is being purchased at port and resold to better-paying markets overseas.

In the opaque U.S. fertilizer market, it was not immediately clear who was reselling the U.S. imports.

Global fertilizer producer CF Industries said in late March it was “foregoing new higher-priced export orders during this spring planting season” so U.S. farmers could access supplies.

Fertilizer cost a global concern

Manufacturers, however, only control the production and sale of fertilizers such as urea until they reach distributors. Retailers who sell to farmers and traders control much of the fertilizer supply. Fertilizer cost has become a major global concern for farmers because of sagging crop prices, which are far below what farmers received in 2022, when fertilizer prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine.

On Monday, Rabobank, the global agricultural banking giant, described both nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers as being well into “unaffordable” territory, with little relief possible for months.

“There could be a very long tail to this,” said Stephen Nicholson, head of North American grains and oilseeds for Rabobank.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent views fertilizer and agriculture supply chains as of essential importance, and is encouraging collaboration among G20 members and the global financial institutions, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

The IMF and others have warned that supply chain disruptions caused by the war, especially to fertilizer at the start of the critical growing season, threaten to push 45 million more people into a position of food insecurity.

Several countries expected to need financing help

Several sub-Saharan African nations already are seeking help, and the IMF expects at least a dozen countries to negotiate new lending programs with the global crisis lender as a result of the war, which has also sent energy prices sharply higher.

The U.S. is the current chair of the Group of 20 major economies, which includes Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, as well as the African Union and European Union.

The U.S. views fertilizer as intrinsic to food security, and views the initiative as an action that G20 members “can immediately move on,” said one senior U.S. official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

Details of the plan were not immediately available, but Washington is emphasizing the need for agility and flexibility in policy responses and cooperation on fertilizer.

The United Nations has been pushing a separate initiative to create a humanitarian corridor through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that fertilizer and other needed goods get through.

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David Bexte, Conservative MP for Bow River, Alta., introduced Bill C-273, the Facilitating Agricultural Regulatory Modernization Act.

If enacted, it would allow provisional approval within 90 days of feeds, seeds, fertilizers and pest control products if they are already approved in at least two trusted jurisdictions.

“Farmers in Canada are currently stuck waiting years to access products that are already proven safe and widely used around the world in countries like the E.U., the U.K., the United States, Australia (and) New Zealand,” Bexte said to reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday.

WHY IT MATTERS: Federal regulators have faced criticism for the lengthy approval process for new products like pesticides.

“In some cases, these products never come to Canada,” he said. “The consequences hit hard: higher costs for producers, fewer tools to fight pests, diseases, lower yields, lower productivity.”

“This is the reality I want to fix in Ottawa.”

Bexte said Canada’s science-based review system will stay in place and full reviews may continue in parallel. The proposed approvals will be time-limited and conditional.

“This is about cutting unnecessary duplication,” he said,” not lowering standards.

The bill would also “speed up access to veterinary drugs by recognizing trusted international regulators.”

Bexte said the measures would ease costs and regulatory burdens without compromising health.

“This bill is about standing up for farmers, standing up for Canadians who are tired of paying more for less.”

In a Wednesday written statement, Fertilizer Canada president and CEO Michael Bourque called the bill “a practical step toward modernizing Canada’s regulatory framework and ensuring farmers have the tools they need to grow healthy, hearty crops.”

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Vaden criticized Mosaic’s announcement last week that it plans to idle two phosphate production facilities in Brazil as part of a cost-saving initiative. The company said the move would reduce its annual phosphate production by about 1 million tonnes.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian and U.S. farmers have seen already strained margins shrink as war in the Middle East has led to spiking fertilizer and fuel prices.

“What possible motivation other than further constraining supply, sowing uncertainty and padding their already sufficient profit margins could they possibly have?” Vaden said at a meeting of the North American Agricultural Journalists.

Vaden has spoken with the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission about fertilizer prices and met with fertilizer company Nutrien a few weeks ago, he said.

U.S. won’t accept ‘price gouging’ Trump says

President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social on April 11 that “the United States will not accept price gouging from the fertilizer monopoly” during the war with Iran, after which Mosaic posted to X that fertilizer prices are driven by supply and demand, weather, geopolitical conditions and other factors

“So disappointed in this response,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins posted to X on Monday, referring to Mosaic’s post

Mosaic did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Following Trump’s April 11 comments, analyst Josh Linville said on X that NOLA (New Orleans) urea is about US$150 cheaper than it should be compared to global economics. Phosphate exports are rapid “due to our discount vs the world,” said Linville, who is vice president for fertilizer with StoneX Group Inc.

“Fertilizer is not cheap, but manufacturers are not gouging right now,” he said.

—Additional reporting by Geralyn Wichers, Glacier FarmMedia

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However, a tentative two-week ceasefire agreement was reached in the last hours before U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened to destroy the Iranian civilization if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. Crude oil tumbled in response, and agricultural commodities — including canola — were also lower on April 8.

Crude and canola

After trading in a C$20 range from C$720 to C$740 per tonne for most of the previous month, the May contract fell below C$710 per tonne after the ceasefire announcement. That took the contract to within a few dollars of where it had been prior to the U.S./Israeli attacks on Iran that started Feb. 28. From a chart standpoint, the highs in canola appear to be in for the time being. There’s plenty of room to the downside if the speculators holding large net long positions decide to start liquidating.

The likelihood of more twists and turns in the Middle East should keep all markets on edge through the tentative ceasefire, but North American grains and oilseeds will also be taking more direction from their own fundamentals as the next growing season gets underway.

Ceasefire impacts

Iran will allow vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire agreement, albeit at a cost. Vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf should be able leave, but it’s uncertain how many ships will brave the journey back into the war-torn area given the small ceasefire window.

Physical shortages are already being seen in parts of the world, with an estimated 30 per cent of the world’s fertilizer trade moving through the strait.

Prices tend have an easier time going up than down, so fertilizer costs that climbed higher during the closure of the key waterway are unlikely to soften enough to provide much relief at seeding time. Planting decisions could see some adjustments, but one question now is how yields may be hurt by reduced fertilizer applications.

Seasonal price trends generally see canola move higher in the spring. Whether those seasonal trends are enough to counter the larger geopolitical developments remains to be seen.

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The expected reduction comes amid disruptions to global soil-nutrient supply chains triggered by the Middle East conflict and China’s fertilizer export restrictions.

OCP, the world’s top producer of phosphates-based fertilizers, was proceeding “bringing forward planned Q3 and Q4 maintenance activities into the second quarter,” one of the sources told Reuters, requesting anonymity.

The maintenance works have been advanced “as part of normal operational planning and asset optimization, in a context of increased market uncertainty,” the source said.

The output reduction is temporary and OCP does not expect a significant impact on its annual production profile, a second company source said, adding that the expected drop was discussed during a recent investor call.

OCP is particularly exposed to fluctuations in the prices of ammonia and sulphuric acid, two key fertilizer inputs whose supply has been severely affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

OCP’s sulphuric acid imports nearly doubled to $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion) in 2025, driven by higher consumption and prices, while ammonia imports fell nine per cent to $840 million (C$1.17 billion) as production of nitrogen‑based fertilizers declined, according to OCP’s annual report.

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The NL710 is a single-bin fertilizer spreader the Iowa company says is comparable in productivity and profitability to its dual-bin NL720.

“It’s a high-precision, high-output, wide fertilizer spreader that is user-friendly and low-maintenance,” says Benjamin Boelter, director of product development with New Leader.

WHY IT MATTERS: Given the slow-release fertilizer products available today, the new and higher-tech broadcast spreaders are again finding favour among some Prairie farmers.

The machine’s 120-foot spreading capacity is a rarity in the U.S. market, he says, with most manufacturers opting for 90 feet.

“We also increased the throughput … so you don’t have to slow down to get a wider pattern, so we have more material that can go through the machine.”

The applicator features a spread pattern “wizard” that makes automatic output adjustments.

“You don’t have to make manual adjustments on the machine to change the spread pattern. That’s all taken care of internally for you,” says Boelter.

The machine’s variable rate spreading capability includes four options: 120, 90, 80 and 70 feet.

Boelter uses turn compensation as an example of its variable-rate capabilities — say, when “spreading on the left hand side of the spreader needs more material than the right hand side. Our machine can adjust for that,” he says.

“As you spread with VRT, as you’re going through the field and your rates are changing and your speed is changing, the amount of product dropping on your spinner is changing. So we have built into our software (the ability to) make the adjustments as you’re going through those rates to keep your spread pattern at a very good precision.”

According to the company, the NL710 also features:

• A 33 per cent more efficient high-output design.
• Uniform spread pattern with advanced swath width control.
• Tool-free maintenance and zero grease points for reduced downtime.
• Ability to pattern test and set the machine using only three pans.

The applicator was designed for productivity, efficiency and low maintenance, says Boelter, but the fundamental goal was simplicity.

“We tried to make it very simple for the operator to use. So one of the, I would say, most unexpected things from an operator standpoint is we added a lot of capability, but it’s actually easier to use from a control standpoint than what’s in the field today.”

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The issue of high-yielding genetics with low straw strength was a particular problem in 2010, 2012 and 2014, when barley and wheat had high production that coincided with severe lodging.

“We had very high production years, lots of moisture and lots of conditions that promoted lodging,” Mitchell Japp, research and extension manager at SaskBarley, said at the recent Top Crop Summit in Saskatoon.

“So at the time, we had relatively poor genetics for lodging, and the straw strength wasn’t there, and so our fertility management was one of the few things that we had to be able to control lodging.”

Controls were promoted, such as increased potassium to improve straw, reduced seeding rates and lowering nitrogen to ensure plants stayed standing and protein stayed low enough for malt barley.

But farmers also started turning to another class of products to help solve the issue: plant growth regulators.

In 2014, Manipulator PGR, with the active ingredient chlormequat chloride, was registered for wheat. Today, products containing that active ingredient include registrations for other cereals crops like barley and oats.

Researchers at the Indian Head Agricultural Research Farm in Saskatchewan performed trials on barley for application timing and effect of the product. Their results were promising.

“They found that it decreased height, decreased lodging and even in the absence of those, sometimes led to a yield increase,” Japp said.

“And certainly if lodging was present, there would be a yield increase.”

However, in 2021, chlormequat chloride was labelled yellow by Keep it Clean for barley, meaning that farmers should be informed when opting for it, and should check with their grain buyer to avoid potential marketing pitfalls. As of its 2026 product advisory, Keep it Clean maintains it as yellow status for malt, feed or food-bound barley.

The use of chlormequat chloride in oats has also sparked considerable controversy in recent years between advocacy groups and millers who have discouraged it and some farmers, who maintain the product has been useful.

Currently, Keep it Clean does not have a caution attached to chlormequat chloride in either oats or wheat.

New PGR products, mixed early results

Also in 2021, a newly released PGR — Moddus, active ingredient trinexapac-ethyl — was trialled. It was found to be effective, although any PGR’s influence on a crop varies depending on location, environmental conditions and variety.

“In 2020, ‘21, and ‘22, there was a lot of really low-producing sites,” Japp noted.

“Very low yielding, high stress, which is not the conditions to use a plant growth regulator in. And so what they saw was a significant yield decrease from the control treatment.”

Other sites had higher yields, but agronomic control methods like lower nitrogen, lowered seed rate and additions of potassium largely seemed to do the same job against lodging.

In 2023, they ran an enhanced growing project with six varieties and four management packages. The third package focused on plant height and included a PGR.

However, it was another dry year, which meant mid-range yield and no “real” lodging pressure , although the PGR did help reduce height.

Pushing nitrogen to force the answer

To really trial the efficacy of the PGR though, Japp wanted to induce lodging.

To do this, they applied nitrogen alongside the PGR at the Indian Head site in 2024 and were granted a cool wet spring, good heat in July and wind and rain in August. These results offered some of the best insights of the project, with clear differences between treatments.

A full rate of Moddus had a notable decrease in lodging compared to the untreated control. Both varieties, CDC Fraser and AAC Connect, responded the same.

In comparison, the other trial sites at Melfort and Prince Albert saw nearly no effect on yield or lodging because they were dealing with dry conditions.

Japp said the key is to start with good genetics and find a good balance between products, whether it’s the right amount of nitrogen for a good yield alongside a PGR, or not using a PGR at all.

Seeding rate should also be considered because a higher rate is good for weed management. Staying economical with the rate is important for yield and lodging.

“I think we can say comfortably that a timely PGR application, in really good growing conditions, can improve both harvest operations and increase yield,” he said.

“If the conditions aren’t optimal, there’s may be no benefit. Maybe you get a slight lodging decrease but not likely yield (improvement). And in the poor conditions, it does remain a (yield) risk, so we’re trying to avoid those risky conditions.”

More information is yet to come because a project is currently underway to predict risk of lodging at an early stage for better indication of the potential benefit in using a PGR in a barley crop.

What Manitoba growers should weigh

Back in 2024, cereal growers in Manitoba had a hard time with lodging and PGR questions flew.

The products’ use is a financial gamble, provincial cereal specialist Anne Kirk said at an agronomy event at Brandon’s Assiniboine College that fall.

“It’s a big input,” she said. “Especially when you’re making that decision if you want to be applying them or not fairly early on in the growing season, when you don’t know if you’re going to have, you know, a large hail event or drought in July or whatnot.”

Producers may consider applying strategically, she noted: on only their best wheat crop, or select acres, although she doesn’t see a lot of producers choosing only patches of their fields to apply.r5ui8

PGRs are not, she cautioned, a product to turn to if your crops are already strained by weather, insects or disease.

“Any sort of like plant stress, you wouldn’t want to be applying a plant growth regulator, because it is a hormone, and it can negatively interact with those other stress hormones,” she said.

Instead, she suggested, they might be a better fit for those crops that are intensely managed, seeded densely and generously fertilized with nitrogen.

— With files from Alexis Stockford

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Granted, if they had the forethought and storage capacity to buy fertilizer in the fall or top up their farm fuel reserves, they’re not taking mortal financial blows right before seeding — but with every new gas field struck, fertilizer plant shuttered or country shutting down fertilizer exports to protect their slice of the global pie, it seems less likely that supply chains will get back to status quo anytime soon.

According to an FCC web post, released in early March and recently cited by our reporter Miranda Leybourne, a 2022 study suggested about half of Prairie farmers have their fertilizer by late March. That’s more than in Eastern Canada (only 10 per cent of Ontario farmers had done the same), but it still leaves a lot of producers potentially eating big bills this spring.

Cycle of uncertainty for farmers

As our executive editor Laura Rance noted a few weeks ago, this kind of chaos has become all too familiar.

COVID-19 threw international supply chains into a blender. Inflation has ballooned far more for farmers than even other Canadians. Manitoba Agriculture staff puts the farm inflation rate in the last five years at up to 50 per cent. Canada picked another fight with China, and canola took the brunt. Then there’s the second era of Donald Trump, whose policies have helped throw more uncertainty and market volatility into the mix than the world has seen in decades.

Farmers have become unfortunately used to waking up one morning to find their market gone or input prices spiking due to events impossible to anticipate and which often have nothing to do with them.

A system can only take so much before people start looking for alternatives. If farmers are shopping for innovations though, they’re going to have to wrestle with the reality that many of those technologies have the word “sustainable” associated with them.

That’s the tone of society; and it’s often the buzzword that attracts either public or private investment enough to get those ag tech concepts over the finish line.

Many farmers resent the “green” mandates being imposed upon them by government and public pressure. The federal goal to reduce fertilizer emissions by 30 per cent under 2020 levels by the end of the decade is a prime example.

Farmers’ were first and foremost worried that it would turn into a hard limit on nitrogen fertilizer use. The federal government has always denied that, saying that it’s going to be more about encouraging efficiencies.

If urea futures are going to start spiking 30 per cent though (as they did within two days of the intensified conflict in Iran), maybe less natural gas derived fertilizer isn’t a bad thing.

A case for self-sufficiency

Most of the farms that I’ve seen who have bought into regenerative or “sustainable” practices have a financial reason, rather than just an ideological one. They want long-term viability and to be able to absorb shocks they’ve observed in the field or have suffered in the bank account.

Such was the case with R&L Acres near Sperling, home to Manitoba’s first on-farm green ammonia plant.

Yes, government and researchers had an environmental interest in the initiative. It uses hydro power and electrolysis to get hydrogen from water, rather than natural gas. Combined with nitrogen from the atmosphere, it becomes on-farm manufactured ammonia.

Researchers have even suggested that green ammonia could one day become an alternate fuel source for machinery.

Farm owner Curtis Hiebert, though, also talked about a desire for self-sufficiency, to decouple from the whims of the fertilizer market and save money, especially when regular ammonia prices were up. The numbers presented in 2024 put final cost of a 500 tonne per year system at $948 per tonne for the farmer.

That may not always offer huge savings, but it will be consistent, and that certainty is also worth something. At the time the system was being installed, the fertilizer market was in turmoil because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, there’s a whole new set of world affairs mucking things up.

One plant doesn’t mean green ammonia is about to roll over conventional ways of farming, nor is it clear how much our renewable energy infrastructure would be able to support. Manitoba Hydro has already warned about its looming capacity limits. The up-front cost of the system is also big: an estimated $4.5 million in 2024.

Green ammonia is, though, an example of the kind of farm-focused innovation that could offer legitimate solutions and resiliency in an increasingly uncertain world.

We shouldn’t get so caught on the word “green,” and any complicated feelings that word comes with, that we dismiss the equally real impacts for self-sufficiency, sovereignty, stability and, in the best of cases, cost savings.

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