“Millions of people will die,” said Andy Harrington.

Governments are drastically slashing their international development assistance budgets to focus on domestic concerns and military spending.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs warns that global funding for humanitarian aid fell by a third in 2025.

“It’s really quite catastrophic,” said Harrington.

WHY IT MATTERS: Millions of people will die.

Harrington said he was standing outside a childhood malnutrition centre in South Sudan earlier this year where there was a lineup of children suffering from hunger.

“We’re not talking, ‘we missed a meal here;’ we’re talking seriously acute malnutrition with consequences for life,” he said.

As he was taking in that disturbing scene, he was informed that the centre would be shutting down in 24 hours with no prior notice.

It was one of 1,100 centres being shuttered in South Sudan alone, all casualties of budget cuts at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

The Lancet, a medical journal published in the United Kingdom, estimates that 14 million people will die by 2030 because of the USAID belt-tightening.

But it is not just USAID. The UK, Germany, the European Union and many other governments around the world are also chopping their humanitarian aid budgets.

The Canadian government announced in its 2025 budget that it will be reducing foreign aid spending by $2.7 billion between 2026 and 2030.

Harrington has been told that most of the cuts will be to long-term development programs rather than emergency assistance.

In the meantime, global hunger is spreading at a pace not seen in decades.

“Gaza crossed into famine, following Sudan, where famine started in 2024 and grew in 2025,” he said.

“These are stark reminders of the human cost of inaction, and how quickly hunger can escalate when the world chooses to look away.”

The number of acutely food insecure people nearly tripled to 295 million people in 2024 from 105 million in 2016, according to the Global Report on Food Crises.

“We get lost in the numbers, but these are real human beings,” said Harrington.

“These are mothers and fathers with children that they’re watching starve.”

Harrington fully expects that the number of acutely food insecure people grew in 2025 and will only get worse in 2026 as more funding cuts take effect.

He believes it is not too late for Canada to reverse course and drop the looming cuts to its international aid budget.

“Before we make these cuts, we have to question ourselves as a country and say, ‘who do we want to be?’ ” he said.

“When others are stepping back, we need to be stepping forward and standing with the world.”

Future funding

Harrington understands that Canadians are facing a cost-of-living crisis at home, but he noted that the average inflation rate in the countries where the Canadian Foodgrains Bank works is 45 per cent.

That is a harrowing statistic for a family living on a few dollars per week.

He worries what impact the government cuts will have on his organization, which receives about 40 per cent of its funding from Ottawa and the remainder from private donations.

In the 2024-25 budget year, the organization provided $74.6 million of assistance to 1.18 million people overseas.

He doesn’t anticipate much of a funding reduction for the upcoming fiscal year, but he is concerned about future years as the proposed government cuts take effect.

Harrington said it is going to be hard for organizations such as his to fill the massive gaps that have been created in humanitarian aid programs because they are already overstretched.

He is grateful that private donors appear to be stepping up to help fill the void.

However, if governments don’t reverse course in a few short years, people around the world will be asking themselves, “what have we done?” when they turn on their televisions.

“The pictures are going to be horrific,” said Harrington.

He is confident those disturbing pictures will trigger a wave of public empathy and support.

However, it will be far more costly in terms of both money and human lives to address the horror at that stage rather than preventing it from happening today.

The Canadian Foodgrains Bank is a partnership of 15 churches and church agencies that works with local partners in 37 countries.

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A coalition of gangs has prevented the distribution of diesel and gasoline for over a month to protest a plan to cut fuel subsidies. Most transport is halted, with looting and gang shootouts becoming increasingly common.

“We have for the first time a famine present in Haiti,” Ulrika Richardson, resident and humanitarian co-ordinator for the U.N. system in Haiti, said in a telephone interview.

“The gang violence has cut off the capital from the food-producing south, and that means that we have now an increase in food insecurity.”

A U.N. spokesperson later clarified that Richardson should have described the situation as catastrophic hunger rather than famine.

Richardson said other countries need to do more to support Haiti, as the Caribbean country’s humanitarian response plan for this year has received less than 30 per cent of the required funding.

“While we address the current symptoms of the multiple crises that Haitians are facing… the security and the fuel crisis — we also have to make sure that we invest in the longer-term root causes, such as impunity, such as corruption,” said Richardson, the U.N.’s most senior humanitarian official in Haiti.

Some 19,200 people in Haiti’s Cite Soleil are suffering famine conditions, according to an analysis by U.N. agencies and aid groups on Friday. A famine is declared when at least 20 per cent of the households in a region are suffering famine conditions.

The analysis said that in total 4.7 million people — nearly half of Haiti’s population — are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity.

The situation was “close to breaking point,” Jean-Martin Bauer, World Food Program country director in Haiti, told reporters earlier.

A U.N. report released on Friday said children as young as 10 and elderly women have been subjected to sexual violence, including collective rapes for hours in front of their parents or children.

“Gangs use sexual violence to instil fear, and alarmingly the number of cases increases by the day as the humanitarian and human rights crisis in Haiti deepens,” said Nada Al-Nashif, the acting human rights chief.

Prime Minister Ariel Henry last week asked for military assistance from abroad to confront the gangs, and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed “a rapid action force” to help Haiti’s police.

It is not immediately evident which countries would participate in such a force.

U.S. development agency USAID on Friday sent a disaster assistance response team to Haiti, the agency’s chief, Samantha Power, wrote on Twitter.

Such teams are dispatched in response to natural disasters and complex emergencies, and typically include infectious disease specialists, nutritionists, and logistics experts, according to USAID’s website.

The U.S. State Department has offered support for Haiti’s police and has sent a Coast Guard vessel to patrol the area.

The U.S. and Canada in the coming days will deliver armoured vehicles to the Haitian police that have been purchased by Haiti, U.S. assistant secretary of state Brian Nichols said in an interview with Haitian TV on Thursday.

— Reporting for Reuters by Brian Ellsworth in Miami and Paul Carrel; additional reporting by Michelle Nichols at the United Nations.

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However, less than a day after the deal was signed, Russia undermined international confidence with missile strikes on the port of Odesa.

• Read more: Russian strikes kill Ukrainian grain tycoon; drone hits Russian naval base

The deal, signed July 22, is significant for Moscow on the diplomatic front. Russia is trying to present itself as benevolent, since the agreement is considered by the UN as a ground-breaking positive step.

Five months into the war, analysts and officials acknowledge Russia’s strategic failure and growing inability to increase pressure on Ukraine. But Moscow, which is running out of options, still has a card to play in the Black Sea.

• Read more: Ukraine seeks to extend shipping safe passage deal beyond grain

Putin is now trying to portray Russia in a positive light by agreeing to a safe corridor to export agricultural products. Whether and how this materializes in the coming weeks remains to be seen.

Before commercial shipping can resume, several issues have to be resolved, most notably in regard to clearing mines and the overall safety of shipping operations.

The corridor will need weeks, at the very least, to be fully operational. In the meantime, Russia’s behaviour will be closely scrutinized.

Under the agreed deal, commercial ships will be monitored under a joint co-ordination centre with representatives from the UN, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia. This gives Moscow some form of legitimacy.

The grain deal remains crucial. It is the best option to alleviate the world food crisis. The onus is now on Russia to honour its pledge, but given Moscow’s poor record of truth telling and respect for international law, trust remains fragile.

In the initial phase of war (February to March), Russia occupied Snake Island and deployed its Black Sea fleet, by far the strongest regional naval force, to secure control of the northwestern Black Sea. The smaller and under-resourced Ukrainian navy was in no position to oppose the Russians at sea, and no other navies got involved to avoid escalation.

With its operational control of the northwestern Black Sea, Russia could use kilo-class submarines in support of the air campaign against Ukraine. Russia could also threaten an amphibious assault on Odesa, keeping Ukrainian forces tied up on a possible defence.

However, in April and May the situation at sea shifted in favour of Ukraine. The sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva exposed an important weakness of the Russian navy in terms of air defence. It showed Russian forces were not safe when operating close to the Ukrainian coast, due to Kyiv’s land-based anti-ship missiles.

That said, the Russian navy has been able to pose enough danger to maritime travel that it was too risky for shipping companies to operate in the area.

From an operational perspective, sending naval forces to escort civilian shipping to and from Ukraine is feasible. However, such a deployment would likely violate part of the Montreux Convention and have potential to alienate Turkey. This could also result in combat with Russian naval forces and further escalation.

Alternatives that do not require Russia’s consent and co-operation include using smaller ports on the Danube River and ports in Romania (requiring road transportation) or delivering grain by train to the EU, and then to other ports globally. This might not be a sustainable long-term option.

As the war drags on, Russia is finding it difficult to mobilize more land forces and has a shortage of land-attack missiles. And after losing control over Snake Island, Moscow is unable to fully control the approaches to Odesa, although the Russian navy still poses a substantial threat.

These factors can partly explain Moscow’s change of strategy regarding the blockade. What’s more, as the food crisis drags on, Russia is risking its political and diplomatic credibility in Africa and Asia as its responsibility for the food crisis becomes obvious.

So far, Russia has been able to exploit the food crisis to its advantage. Putin tried to blackmail the West into easing sanctions in exchange for facilitating agricultural exports. At the same time, Moscow has managed through its usual propaganda to limit criticism from developing countries outside Europe.

Political and diplomatic confrontation between the West and Russia is at a turning point. Russia is trying to compensate for its strategic failures with a diplomatic success.

It is crucial for the West to oppose Putin’s blackmailing strategy and to stay firm in regard to sanctions, which are having some effect. It is also crucial to counter Russian propaganda in “swing states” such as India, Pakistan, Brazil and Indonesia.

Missile strikes on Odesa must be condemned and alternative ways of exporting Ukrainian grain must be pursued. At the same time, the West must do everything possible to make the grain deal work.

The food crisis is affecting millions of people and is a humanitarian and diplomatic battle that the West cannot afford to lose.

– Basil Germond is a professor of seapower and maritime security in the department of Politics, Philosophy and Religion at Lancaster University.

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During a U.N. Security Council meeting, Guterres urged Ethiopia’s government to allow “unrestricted movement of desperately needed fuel, cash, communications equipment and humanitarian supplies” into Tigray, Amhara and Afar.

“Our colleagues on the ground are sharing increasingly alarming eye-witness testimony of the suffering — including growing accounts of hunger-related deaths,” Guterres said.

“In locations where screening has been possible, we are seeing acute malnutrition rates that remind us of the onset of the 2011 Somalia famine,” he said.

The 15-member Security Council met after the Ethiopian government last week expelled seven senior U.N. officials for meddling in internal affairs. The United Nations has rejected the move and said there was no proof to back up the accusations.

Guterres it was “particularly disturbing” given the looming famine, while U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield described it as “reckless,” adding: “There’s no justification for the government of Ethiopia’s action, none at all.”

War broke out 11 months ago between Ethiopia’s federal troops and forces loyal to the TPLF, which controls Tigray. Thousands have died, millions have fled their homes and the conflict has spilled into neighbouring Amhara and Afar.

Guterres said up to seven million people in Tigray, Amhara and Afar need help, including five million in Tigray where some 400,000 people are estimated to be living in famine-like conditions.

“Ethiopian children are starving. People are dying because they cannot access food, water and basic health care. This is not a situation caused by natural disaster. It is caused by those who continue to choose the path of war,” Ireland’s U.N. Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason told the council.

Guterres urged the Security Council to back U.N. aid efforts. However, any strong action by the body — such as sanctions — is unlikely as Russia and China have made clear they believe the Tigray conflict is an internal affair for Ethiopia.

China’s U.N. Ambassador Zhang Jun on Wednesday called for “quiet diplomacy in order to prevent a deadlock” over the expulsion of the U.N. officials.

— Reporting for Reuters by Michelle Nichols at the U.N.

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“What’s the difference today?” Thomas-Greenfield said. “Today we should have better information… We can save lives if we know where to go and if we put the funding toward it.”

Thomas-Greenfield and Beasley both recounted these stories during a U.N. Security Council meeting on food security, where U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that more than 30 million people in over three dozen countries are “just one step away from a declaration of famine.”

“Famine and hunger are no longer about lack of food. They are now largely man-made — and I use the term deliberately. They are concentrated in countries affected by large-scale, protracted conflict,” Guterres told the 15-member body.

He announced the creation of a high-level U.N. task force on preventing famine, to be led by U.N. aid chief Mark Lowcock.

“Parts of Yemen, South Sudan and Burkina Faso are in the grip of famine or conditions akin to famine,” Guterres said. “The Democratic Republic of the Congo experienced the world’s largest food crisis last year, with nearly 21.8 million people facing acute hunger between July and December.”

Guterres, Beasley and Thomas-Greenfield also raised particular concern about food shortages in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, where Ethiopian government troops began an offensive against Tigray’s former ruling party after regional forces attacked federal army bases in the region in November.

“Food stocks are depleted. Acute malnutrition is rising. The ongoing violence has prevented humanitarians from helping desperately hungry people,” Thomas-Greenfield said.

In war-torn South Sudan, Guterres said 60 per cent of people are increasingly hungry: “Food prices are so high that just one plate of rice and beans costs more than 180 per cent of the average daily salary — the equivalent of about $400 here in New York.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Michelle Nichols.

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The proposal was one of two related to the pandemic that failed to make headway at a three-day meeting of the Geneva-based trade body, an outcome its spokesman described as “disappointing” in a difficult year for the institution.

The 164-member WTO, currently leaderless and with no functioning appeals body for trade disputes, is facing the biggest crisis in its 25-year history.

U.S. Ambassador Dennis Shea, in his final major address to the organization this week, described “wide divergences among the membership” and said the WTO had underperformed.

However, critics blame the Trump administration for its difficulties, saying Washington has hamstrung the WTO by blocking the appointment of a new director-general and opposing judge appointments to its top court.

Close to 100 countries voiced support for the food aid proposal, originally submitted by Singapore, which envisaged a ban on export restrictions on food intended for the World Food Program (WFP).

The U.N. agency, which won a Nobel Peace Prize this year for its work combating global hunger, has warned that 2021 will be “catastrophic” with famines possible due partly to the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.

WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell said WTO members, who must decide by consensus, could not agree. Some countries appeared to have concerns the proposal might impinge on their own domestic food security, he added, saying India was among them.

WFP’s Tomson Phiri said that a ban would have been a “shot in the arm” for his organization, describing how blockages had delayed rice deliveries to West Africa earlier this year.

The other proposal on which WTO members could not agree was a waiver on IP rights for COVID medicines, Rockwell told reporters, confirming the outcome of a meeting last week.

The appointment of a new WTO director-general was also raised at Friday’s meeting and there was still no consensus.

“I think what the last three days have shown us very clearly is that we need a DG,” Rockwell said.

— Emma Farge is a Reuters correspondent covering the United Nations and related matters in Geneva.

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Some $30 million will be spent in Yemen, $15 million each in Afghanistan and northeast Nigeria, $7 million each in South Sudan and Democratic Republic of the Congo and $6 million in Burkina Faso (all figures US$). Lowcock said $20 million had also been set aside in anticipation of a worsening situation in Ethiopia.

“The prospect of a return to a world in which famines are commonplace would be heart wrenching and obscene in a world where there is more than enough food for everyone. Famines result in agonizing and humiliating deaths,” Lowcock said.

“Their impact on a country is devastating and long lasting,” he said in a statement.

Nearly $500 million has been paid into the U.N. Central Emergency Response Fund in 2020. It is used to enable the world body to respond quickly to new humanitarian crises or underfunded emergencies without having to wait for earmarked donations.

— Reporting for Reuters by Michelle Nichols.

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The WFP, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last week for its efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict, said it had so far raised US$1.6 billion.

“We’ve got a lot more money to raise to make certain we avert famine,” David Beasley, executive director of the WFP, said at a conference organized by the U.N,’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Beaseley noted seven million people had died from hunger this year as the COVID-19 pandemic, which could double hunger worldwide, claimed a further one million lives.

“If we don’t sort out COVID, (the) hunger death rate could be three, four, five times that,” said Beaseley.

The Rome-based WFP says it helps some 97 million people in about 88 countries each year, and that one in nine people worldwide still do not have enough to eat.

After declining for several decades, world hunger has been on the rise again since 2016, driven by the twin scourges of conflict and climate change.

“If you think about the wealth on Earth today we shouldn’t see one single child (go) hungry or die from starvation,” said Beaseley.

The WFP has dispatched medical cargoes to over 120 countries during the pandemic, and provided passenger services to ferry humanitarian workers where commercial flights were unavailable.

The agency, the world’s largest humanitarian organization, is funded entirely by donations. It provides school meals to 17.3 million children globally and delivered 4.2 million tonnes of food to regions or countries in need in 2019.

— Reporting for Reuters by Maytaal Angel.

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Official rations are down to 300 grams (10.6 ounces) per person per day, the lowest ever for this time of year, the U.N. said following a food security assessment it carried out at Pyongyang’s request from March 29 to April 12.

It found that 10.1 million people were suffering from severe food insecurity, “meaning they do not have enough food till the next harvest,” U.N. World Food Program spokesman Herve Verhoosel said.

North Korea’s population is around 25.2 million, according to its Central Bureau of Statistics, the report said.

Verhoosel said the word “famine” was not being used in the current crisis, but it might come to that in a few months or years. “The situation is very serious today — that’s a fact.”

The country suffered a famine in the mid-1990s believed to have killed as many as three million people.

For its assessment the WFP, one of only a few aid agencies with access to the country, gained widespread entry to farms, households, nurseries and food distribution centres.

Verhoosel blamed a combination of dry spells, heat waves and flooding for the new crisis, which the U.S. State Department said was the government’s fault.

“The DPRK regime continues to exploit, starve and neglect its own people in order to advance its unlawful nuclear and weapons program,” a department spokeswoman said, adding that it could meet its people’s needs if it redirected state funds.

After a second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump failed to produce a deal to end the program in return for sanctions relief, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un set a year-end deadline for Washington to show more flexibility.

North Korea has for years relied on regular supplies of U.N. food aid.

Its agricultural output of 4.9 million tonnes was the lowest since 2008-09, leading to a food deficit of 1.36 million tonnes in the 2018-19 marketing year, the WPF report said.

Prospects for the 2019 early season crops of wheat and barley were worrisome. “The effects of repeated climate shocks are compounded by shortages of fuel, fertilizer and spare parts crucial for farming,” Verhoosel said.

The WFP plans to make another assessment during July and August.

— Reporting for Reuters by Tom Miles; additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington.

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Global rates of malnutrition are growing at an unprecedented pace, despite progress that has been made reducing hunger and poverty.

Sandwiched between the two extremes of famine and obesity, currently one in three world citizens suffers from effects of poor diet.

If left unchecked, that ratio is expected to reach one in two by 2035, largely due to surging rates of obesity in emerging and developed economies.

“We can no longer say that malnutrition is a poor-country issue,” keynote speaker Patrick Webb, director of USAID’s Feed the Future Nutrition Innovation Lab at Tufts University in Boston, told a symposium here in early December.

• Read more: Malnutrition has many faces

“Our diets are not helping us anymore, they are hindering us,” he said as politicians, non-government organizations, researchers and even a smattering of royalty gathered to explore how policy, trade and the private sector can make a difference.

Earlier this year, the United Nations declared 2016 to 2025 a decade of action on nutrition, calling on world leaders to place more focus on eradicating hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

Dietary risks have displaced alcohol and tobacco as the leading cause of non-communicable disease worldwide, accounting for 10 per cent of the global burden of disease and disability. Diet-related diseases stemming from obesity are rising the fastest in emerging economies where consumers are spending their growing food dollars on highly processed, sugary and high-fat foods that expand their waistline.

The population of overweight and obese globally is 2.458 billion, triple the number of undernourished in the world.

The FAO places the cost to the global economy at $3.5 trillion per year or $500 per capita.

Webb said the problem is complex but fixable. One study put the cost of addressing global malnutrition at US$7 billion per year.

However, the momentum is going in the wrong direction, a phenomenon speakers at the symposium attributed to a global food system that disproportionately favours foods made from grains. For example, Webb said annual subsidies for a few major cereal crops are roughly a hundredfold greater than what it would take to fund actions globally to tackle four forms of undernutrition.

Business as usual will create a “huge nutrition and health crisis,” he warned. “Tweaking at the margins on this is not enough. We need a radical transformation of our food system to nourish, not just feed, nine billion people,” Webb said in reference to FAO projections of the world’s population levels in 2050.

Webb said the problem is partly related to distortions in prices, supports to farmers and research priorities.

While farmers will continue to grow the crops best suited to their operations, the incentives through policy and subsidies they receive for those crops must change. “Really what I am arguing is that we need to pay more attention to those distortions,” he said in an interview.

“Most public research funding also supports mainly a few cereal crops,” he said. “Much more needs to go to support nutrient-rich products if the intent is to have these available for all consumers.”

Turning the tide won’t be easy, but the stakes are high — not only for human health but for the environment, said Anna Herforth, a researcher and consultant specializing in the links between nutrition, agriculture and the environment.

“By 2050, the same dietary trends would result in an 80 per cent increase in greenhouse gas emissions,” Herforth said, noting that would make it impossible to contain global warming to manageable levels.

“More of the same is unsustainable for both human and environmental health. So we need a really fundamental shift in policies to support diversified production for healthy diets and more environmental sustainability,” she said.

Herforth said agricultural investment priorities are caught in a time warp dating back to the 1960s when scientists behind the Green Revolution focused on achieving significant yield gains of staple grains to avert a looming humanitarian crisis.

The issue today isn’t a lack of calories. Although distribution issues remain, the world’s farmers are producing enough calories. The looming concern is a shortage of nutrient-dense foods such as vegetables and fruits in human diets.

Yet the bulk of research and investment spending remains focused on corn, rice and wheat.

“The international and national research systems are set up in a way that makes research on these same traditional crops quite easy to do, whereas we would need quite a bit of change to enable a greater emphasis on the fruits, vegetables, legumes and animal-sourced foods,” she said.

“We need to shift this. Why would we invest in more of the same when that will result in more of the same?”

She said many argue that the food system is driven by consumer demand. But there are several supply-side barriers that give lie to that argument.

Nutrient-dense foods, such as fruits and vegetables, are perishable, which makes them more risky for farmers to grow — especially in underdeveloped economies where access to storage, transportation, processing and markets is poor or non-existent.

Addressing those issues so smallholder farmers could grow a more diverse range of crops would serve a dual purpose of boosting incomes because these also tend to be higher-value crops. Increased biodiversity would also favour environmental quality.

Herforth said the food industry is also guilty of skewing consumer choices. “They spend a lot of money to influence consumers to demand the products that they are able to manufacture from cheap supplies of starchy staples and oilseeds that have received the most investment.”

Webb called for new dietary guidelines to be aimed at policy-makers rather than consumers. “Policy-makers have to demand much more from the food system rather than passively leaving it up to the private sector,” he said.

“Since diet is a modifiable risk factor for disease, then we need to modify it.”

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Federation of Agricultural Journalists have collaborated to create an annual award recognizing excellence in global food security reporting. The prize includes financial support to attend an IFAJ conference as well as an FAO event. As the first recipient, FBC editorial director Laura Rance recently attended the International Symposium on Sustainable Food Systems for Healthy Diets and Improved Nutrition at the FAO headquarters in Rome, Italy.

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