The government agency calls for a 60 to 100 per cent chance of above normal temperatures from May through June across the entire agricultural regions from British Columbia through to Newfoundland and Labrador. The largest likelihood is in the Atlantic provinces.

The weather models point to an increased chance of below normal precipitation in key crop growing regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Southern Ontario, Quebec and most of the Maritimes are forecast to receive normal moisture.

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As for precipitation, ECCC said above-normal amounts are likely to be received over most of Western Canada, Northern Ontario, Northern Quebec as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. ECCC stated it’s unclear at this time how much precipitation during the December to February period is in store for the rest of the country.

One factor guiding the outlook is the La Nina forming in the Pacific Ocean. However, ECCC said the La Nina has yet to officially develop, but when it has done so, the system is expected to be weak during the winter. ECCC noted the La Nina could still generate a more active storm track over the Great Lakes and Atlantic Canada. Officials added the system can lengthen the country’s snow season.

One positive effect of this winter’s snowfall is ECCC forecast more precipitation for those drier areas of Canada that experienced a large number of wildfires over the last few years.

Another factor ECCC accounted for was the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which when combined with a La Nina could result in a colder than normal temperatures, particularly for Western Canada.

Overall, officials predicted the 2024/25 to be more like a more seasonal winter as opposed that last year.

On the downside, ECCC stressed that Canada is warming at about double the global rate, especially further to the north. With that in mind, ECCC created the Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system, which will analyze the connections between human-caused climate change and the odds of extreme cold temperatures. The system is expected to come online next year.

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The government agency called for a 50 to 60 per cent chance of above normal temperatures from July through September across most of the three Prairie provinces. The likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures is even higher in the rest of the country, especially in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

Precipitation is expected to be normal across most of the agricultural areas of the country during the period, aside from parts of central Alberta where there’s a probability of below normal precipitation.

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The storm drenched fields in central and eastern Manitoba, while western Manitoba was temporarily catapulted back to winter.

Why it matters: Low snow pack over the winter had producers worried about whether Manitoba was in for a drought year.

Environment and Climate Change Canada data put the epicentre of the storm near the Winkler-Morden area. About 86 millimetres of rain fell on the region. Other rain counts include 64 mm at Portage la Prairie, 29 mm in Arborg and 27 mm in Winnipeg.

About 25 centimetres of snow were reported at the International Peace Gardens south of Boissevain, and Riding Mountain National Park saw 18 cm of snow.

A soggy April and May have relieved worries about moisture reserves.

“With that much rain, the soil moisture is definitely at the optimal place,” said Timi Ojo, acting manager for crop production with Manitoba Agriculture.

He said there were no critical drought alarm bells in early spring, even with the lack of snow over winter, because the province had decent soil moisture last fall.

“We did still have soil moisture locked in at depth, but at the surface, it was slightly dry,” he said. “So, with all the rain we initially got in April, it assisted with recharging that top layer.”

May rains brought moisture further into the soil profile and also recharged groundwater.

“That’s a good thing because later in the growing season, if for whatever reason we don’t have as much rain as we’d like, we would have capillary rise, which would have water moving into the root zone if the water table is not too far down,” said Ojo.

Feast or famine

Accumulated moisture on May 24 was probably more than many farmers wanted. Seeding equipment was parked for days as fields remained mucky. Conditions posed particular problems for crops with earlier crop insurance seeding deadlines.

Soybeans are high on that list. Earliest risk regions in parts of Westman and the Interlake had until May 30 to get crop in. Other regions had until June 4 to get full coverage, while a lucky patch of the Red River Valley has until June 8. Extended windows run to June 9 for risk areas 2 and 3, and June 13 for risk area 1.

“We’re trying to collect all the observations and anecdotes about how much of the crop (was seeded) before the rain,” said Daryl Domitruk, executive director of Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers. “We’re in that diagnostic period, trying to figure out what just happened and where things might go from here.”

Though rain was much needed after consecutive years of drought, the amount and timing are causing headaches for farmers.

For dry beans, Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation deadlines range from June 6-10, with extended seeding periods up to June 15 (June 11 for higher risk zones). The seeding deadline for field peas is June 15, and the extended seeding period ends June 20, regardless of location.

As of May 20, field pea planting was 90 per cent complete and soybean seeding was only 34 per cent finished, according to Manitoba’s weekly crop report. There was no data available for dry beans, but Domitruk estimated about one-third of the crop was in the ground in south-central Manitoba.

“(Growers) are watching their fields dry and watching the skies all at the same time,” he said.

Two years ago, deep snow and rain from a series of early spring Colorado lows also had growers butting up against MASC deadlines. But Ojo said the similarities are mostly superficial.

“2022 was a bit different,” he said. “It was mostly driven by snow. And with precipitation from snow, it’s all dependent on the rate at which snow melts.”

In this case, Ojo noted the snow in western Manitoba was largely gone within a day. When soil isn’t frozen, it absorbs more of that precipitation.

“The main question going forward is whether we are going to have the rains when we need them. Right now, things are looking good moisture-wise across the province.”

But Ojo cautioned that soil moisture is difficult to forecast because it is so dependent on precipitation.

“We still don’t have a very good precipitation forecast yet.”

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“We are starting to see hints of warmer weather arriving in Alberta,” the chief scientist for Weatherlogics stated, noting that Manitoba and Saskatchewan are to get temperatures that are normal to below normal.

“In the early part of the month we are expecting a ridge in the jet stream to build over British Columbia, so that tends to bring warmer weather. But it doesn’t look like it’s going to last for a really long time though,” Kehler said.

While that phenomenon pertaining to the jet stream isn’t expected to last, he said it will be very active for its duration.

Manitoba will be the wetter province in early June and Alberta will be drier. Saskatchewan will be a mixed bag being wetter in some parts and other parts being drier,” he explained.

Going in the second half of June, Kehler said the pattern may change but it was still too early to say.

On June 3, Environment and Climate Change Canada issued its outlook for the summer, which called for a 60 per cent chance for above-normal temperatures during June, July and August, with Manitoba at 80 per cent.

As for precipitation, ECCC projected parts of southern Alberta, the province’s northeast, along with central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba to have a 40 per cent chance of a drier summer. The southernmost areas of Alberta were pegged at more than 50 per cent drier than normal.

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The Prairie provinces have at least a 60 per cent chance of having above-normal temperatures during the months of June, July and August, with at least an 80 per cent chance in Manitoba.

Most of Eastern Canada will almost certainly see warmer temperatures this summer, while most of Western Canada will see at least a 40 per cent chance. Only B.C.’s West Coast and parts of western Yukon are expected to see normal to below-normal temperatures.

Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as parts of northeastern Alberta, central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba, will have a 40 per cent chance of having a drier summer than normal. The southernmost parts of Alberta will be the driest in the country at more than 50 per cent.

Parts of northeastern B.C., northern Ontario, western Quebec, western Labrador and southern Nova Scotia were projected to have a 40 per cent chance of drier than normal conditions. On the other end, B.C.’s West Coast will have an up to 60 per cent chance of being wetter than normal.

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The government agency called for a 40 to 60 per cent chance of above normal temperatures from May through July across most of the three Prairie provinces, with only a small area of southern Alberta forecast to see normal temperatures. The likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures is even higher in the rest of the country, especially in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

Precipitation is expected to be normal across most of the agricultural areas of the country during the period, aside from parts of southcentral Alberta where there’s a probability of above normal precipitation. Central British Columbia and most of Labrador also have a chance of experiencing above normal precipitation, while the far north of Saskatchewan and Alberta could be on the dry side.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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The government agency called for a 50 to 80 per cent chance of above normal temperatures from February through April across most of the country, with Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan seeing the warmest outlook of the Prairie provinces.

Precipitation is expected to be normal across most of Canada during the period, with a slightly wetter bias across much of the agricultural regions of Alberta and western Saskatchewan.

Any moisture will be welcome in the region, with accumulated precipitation maps compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada showing below average accumulation in much of the Prairies through the winter season so far.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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The government agency called for a 50 to 60 per cent chance of above normal temperatures from January through March across most of the country, with an even greater chance in the Atlantic provinces, parts of Northern Ontario around Lake Superior and eastern Quebec. Looking ahead to the spring, the four to six month forecast for April/May/June also predicts a high probability of above normal temperatures in the spring.

Precipitation is expected to be normal across most of Canada through the winter months, with a wetter bias in Labrador and a small pocket of northern Saskatchewan.

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That’s according to the latest long-range seasonal forecast from Environment Canada, released Friday.

The government department calls for a 50-70 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures from July through September through all the agricultural regions of Western Canada.

The rest of the country also has an increased chance of above-normal temperatures, with the highest probabilities in Ontario and Quebec, northern Manitoba and British Columbia’s Interior.

Precipitation is expected to be normal across most southern growing regions of Western Canada, with a drier bias in northern Saskatchewan through to northern Ontario.

The British Columbia coast, including Vancouver Island, is also forecast to see below-normal precipitation. Agricultural regions of Ontario and Quebec are expected to see normal precipitation.

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