In total, the entire country is experiencing about 12 per cent less precipitation than is normally expected.

Particularly, provinces in India’s key pulse-growing region are experiencing significant droughts during a season that typically brings monsoon rains.

According to data from the India Meteorological Department, the province of Rajasthan has received 36 per cent less rain than average, with neighbouring Punjab receiving 37 per cent less. Delhi has also received 58 per cent less precipitation than expected, and Saurashtra and Kutch has received about half as much precipitation than normal.

According to the India Pulse and Grain Association, India is expected to produce about 23 million tonnes of pulses in 2019, down 2.22 million from the previous year.

Since India consumes between 24 and 25 million tonnes of pulses annually, lowered production may be offset by the Indian government releasing nearly four million tonnes of pulse stocks under its national price support scheme.

Strict import restrictions mean India is forecast to import just one million tonnes of pulses, according to a report from Business Standard.

India’s purchase of Canadian pulses has decreased in recent years due to high tariffs.

As the world’s largest producer of pulses, India’s stockpiles are likely to sustain the country’s large demand. However, as worldwide weather patterns become increasingly volatile, there may be some space to negotiate a new trade deal between the two countries.

— Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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Manitoba Co-operator reporter Allan Dawson interviewed Bruce Murray June 23 about Monsanto’s new Roundup Ready Xtend soybeans, which will be available to Manitoba farmers next spring if, as expected, China approves them.

The post VIDEO: Roundup Ready Xtend soybeans and the fight against herbicide resistance appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Manitoba Co-operator reporter Allan Dawson spoke with DEKALB agronomist Bruce Murray June 23 about Monsanto’s new Roundup Ready Xtend soybeans. Monsanto’s technical development representative Allan Froese also demonstrated how different nozzles affect spray droplet size.

The post VIDEO: Roundup Ready Xtend crop system for soybeans, avoiding spray drift appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“It’s as widespread as we’ve seen for frost for quite a while,” David Van Deynze, Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation’s (MASC) claim services manager, said June 1.

“We can’t keep up with the claims coming in right now.”

Western Manitoba was hardest hit, followed by the central region, he said. Far fewer claims were coming from eastern Manitoba, he added.

For many farmers, including pedigreed seed grower Warren Ellis at Wawanesa, this latest frost was the last straw. Ellis said he expects to have to reseed 30 per cent of his crops. The canola he planted May 5 was frozen and cut down by sleet May 17 during a storm that hit most of the rest of southern Manitoba. It recovered. But then it was damaged by flea beetles.

“I just don’t think it was meant to be,” Ellis said in an interview June 1. “We had a faint hope that maybe the canola was hardened off and maybe would survive the frost, but no, we went out this morning and it’s not coming back.”

Ellis’s story is typical, said Anastasia Kubinec, oilseed specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development. A lot of canola fields were borderline after the last storm, flea beetles and soil crusting, she said. That’s probably why so few farmers were waiting a few days to see how their crop might recover. Other factors included rain in the forecast and approaching seeding deadlines.

Borderline

The full crop insurance coverage deadlines for canola in Areas 1 and 2 are June 15 and 10; the reduced coverage deadlines are June 20 and 15.

Farmers should increase their canola-seeding rate to aid earlier maturity, Kubinec said. It’s just three months until September 1 and the risk of a fall frost.

Ellis said he’s never seen flax frozen in the spring before and was trying to get an expert opinion before reseeding it, he said.

While popular varieties of canola could be in short supply, most farmers should be able to find canola of some type to plant.

According to a Facebook post, one seed grower said farmers in the Somerset area were reseeding 15,000 acres of canola and 10,000 of flax.

“Every half-ton I saw yesterday (May 31) had canola seed in the back of it,” said Kubinec. “Monsanto and Bayer, their reps are running around with canola seed, so is Canterra, and Brett Young Seeds was taking seed orders this morning.”

While having to seed canola fields again will eat up some of the farmers’ time, it won’t be much of an additional cost, she added.

“Some of the companies, if they’re reseeding back to the same variety, they are giving them a heavy discount on the seed, and they will get a reseed benefit from MASC.”

Below zero

WeatherFarm data shows the temperature hit -2 C 5 a.m. May 30 in Fannystelle. Areas around Elm Creek and Elie fell to -1 around the same time. In Brandon, temperatures dropped to -3.

Bill Craddock, who farms near Fannystelle, said many of the fields in the region were “wiped out” by the frost.

“From Starbuck east we have been more fortunate, but west of Starbuck has been less fortunate,” said Ed Rempel, president of the Manitoba Canola Growers Association.

The frost compounded worries about the size of the crop in Canada, the biggest producer and exporter of canola, a futures trader said. Some crops on Western Canada’s Prairies have struggled with too little moisture, and the number of acres planted was already smaller than expected.

MASC still hadn’t caught up to all the reseeding claims from the storm May 16 to 18. By May 28 MASC had received around 750 — not far off the average of 800. But as of June 1 the number was 1,250 and expected to keep rising this week, Van Deynze said.

MASC was so overwhelmed with claims that in some cases it is allowing farmers to reseed canola back to canola without first getting it adjusted or leaving a check strip. However, that option is only available in certain areas and farmers must get permission from their local MASC office first, Van Deynze stressed.

Some crop insurance seeding deadlines have already passed and more are approaching.

For example, the deadline for seeding soybeans and getting full crop insurance coverage in soybean Areas 2 and 3 was May 31. The reduced coverage deadline for soybean Areas 2 and 3 is June 6.

The full and reduced coverage deadlines in soybean Area 1 is June 6 and June 11, respectively.

The deadline for seeding grain corn and getting full coverage in grain corn Areas 2, 3 and 4 was May 30; the deadline for reduced coverage is June 4.

The deadlines for full and reduced coverage in grain corn Area 1 is June 6 and June 11, respectively.

Get the full list of crop insurance seeding deadlines on the Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation’s website.

The post Canola crop succumbs to final blow with May 30 frost appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Normally farmers have to get an MASC adjuster to inspect a field before they re-seed or leave a check strip, but farmers in certain areas won’t have to do that, David Van Deynze, Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation’s (MASC) claim services manager, said in an interview June 1.

However, the change only applies to certain areas of the province and farmers must contact their local MASC first to find out if they qualify for the shortcut.

“We haven’t done this in the 15 years that I’ve been here,” Van Deynze said. “We want to avoid situations where we’re holding up farmers. There are a lot of details so contact your MASC local office. It doesn’t necessarily apply to every farmer because certain areas have had less frost.

“They need to still register the claim to get the ball rolling, but the local office might tell him to go ahead and re-seed without waiting for an adjuster. It’s because of the volume (of claims) and the calendar date basically.”

The full crop insurance coverage deadlines for canola in areas 1 and 2 are June 15 and 10, respectively; the reduced coverage deadlines are June 20 and 15.

When required to leave a check it needs to be at least 10 feet wide for the full length of the field and there must be one for every 40 acres, Van Deynze said.

Farmers are scrambling to find canola and flax seed to re-seed.

“It’s as widespread as we’ve seen for frost for quite awhile,” Van Deynze said Western Manitoba was hardest hit, followed by the central region, he said. Far fewer claims were coming from eastern Manitoba, he added.

For many farmers, including pedigreed seed grower Warren Ellis at Wawanesa, this latest frost was the last straw. Ellis said he expects to have to re-seed 30 per cent of his crops. The canola he planted May 5 was frozen and cut down by sleet May 17 during a storm that hit most of the rest of southern Manitoba. It recovered but then was damaged by flea beetles.

“I just don’t think it was meant to be,” Ellis said in an interview Monday. “We had a faint hope that maybe the canola was hardened off and maybe would survive the frost, but no, we went out this morning and it’s not coming back.”

Ellis’ story is typical, said Anastasia Kubinec, oilseed specialist with Manitoba, Agriculture, Food and Rural Development. A lot of canola fields were borderline due to the last storm, flea beetles and soil crusting, she said. That’s probably why so few farmers were waiting a few days to see how their crop might recover. Other factors included rain in the forecast and approaching seeding deadlines.

Farmers should increase their canola seeding rate to aid earlier maturity, Kubinec said. It’s just three months until September 1 and the risk of a fall frost.

According to a Facebook post one seed grower said farmers in the Somerset area were re-seeding 15,000 acres of canola and 10,000 of flax.

“Every half ton I saw yesterday (May 31) had canola seed in the back of it,” said Kubinec. “Monsanto and Bayer, their reps are running around with canola seed, so is Canterra, and Brett Young Seeds was taking seed orders this morning.”

While having to seed canola fields again will eat up some of the farmers’ time, it won’t be much of an additional cost, she added.

“Some of the companies, if they’re reseeding back to the same variety, they are giving them a heavy discount on the seed, and they will get a re-seed benefit from MASC.”

WeatherFarm data shows the temperature hit -2 C 5:00 A.M. May 30 in Fannystelle. Areas around Elm Creek and Elie fell to -1 around the same time. In Brandon, temperatures dropped to -3.

Bill Craddock, who farms is near Fannystelle, said many of the fields in the region were “wiped out” by the frost.

“From Starbuck east we have been more fortunate, but west of Starbuck has been less fortunate,” said Ed Rempel, president of the Manitoba Canola Growers Association.

The frost compounded worries about the size of the crop in Canada, the biggest producer and exporter of canola, a futures trader said. Some crops on Western Canada’s Prairies have struggled with too little moisture, and the number of acres planted was already smaller than expected.

ICE Canada November canola futures jumped 3.7 per cent on Monday.

MASC still hadn’t caught up to all the re-seeding claims from the Victoria Day long weekend storm. By May 28 MASC had received around 750 — not far off the average of 800. But as of June first the number was 1,250 and expected to keep rising this week, Van Deynze said.

Some crop insurance seeding deadlines have already passed and more are approaching.

For example, the deadline for seeding soybeans and getting full crop insurance coverage in soybean areas 2 and 3 was May 31. The reduced coverage deadline for soybean areas 2 and 3 is June 6.

The full and reduced coverage deadlines in soybean area 1 is June 6 and June 11, respectively.

The deadline for seeding grain corn and getting full coverage in grain corn areas 2, 3 and 4 was May 30; the deadline for reduced coverage is June 4.

The deadlines for full and reduced coverage in grain corn area 1 is June 6 and June 11, respectively.

Get the full list of crop insurance seeding deadlines on the Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation website.

allan@fbcpublishing.com with files from Reuters

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Banks and traders are reporting outsized profits, and losses, on everything from natural gas to grains as severe weather causes extra price volatility; power grid operators are struggling with bouts of extreme cold or droughts that crimp supplies while demand spikes; and more retailers and manufacturers are using forecasts to manage inventories.

Traditional meteorologists, who look at current weather patterns to make forecasts, have long derided examining historical temperatures as “climatology,” of limited use, at best, when trying to predict the future.

But applied mathematicians, some of whom once worked on Wall Street as market-predicting “quants,” see the future in patterns of historical data. After years of tinkering, they say their weather algorithms can blow away traditional forecasting.

“It has taken me two solid decades to get something useful,” said data miner Ria Persad, the president of StatWeather.

“Weathermen are looking at what’s happening now — they are looking at current data to get to the future,” said Persad. “They aren’t actually studying this 120 years of data log to extract patterns like we are to draw statistical lessons.”

Persad looks far ahead: she sees the California drought persisting until late 2015, so far into the future as to draw scoffs from some practitioners.

Value in mixing

Traditional meteorologists use computer models as well, and some see value in mixing historical data with what is happening outside their window, but they are skeptical of relying too heavily on the past.

“We only have data for the last 100 years, which is 100 winters, which is a really small sample size. It would work if we had 1,000 years or 10,000 years of data, but we don’t,” said Mike Halpert of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

“This is kind of like being a gambler in Las Vegas, on any one hand you may lose,” he added, declining to discuss StatWeather specifically.

Halpert, however, had predicted this past winter was going to be warmer than normal. Instead, it was unusually cold — just as StatWeather predicted. Only about 20 per cent of commercial forecasters saw the colder winter coming, Persad said.

• Visit WeatherFarm: The difference between weather and climate change

StatWeather nailed calls on a cold snap in late 2013 and a string of frigid temperatures through March, surprising some in the forecasting community and even Persad herself. She attributed improving accuracy to her software training itself.

Another company, Global Weather Oscillations, uses historical data to predict where hurricanes will strike land and correctly predicted a weak hurricane season last year, unlike many rivals.

“We don’t have to wait four days before a hurricane hits to do this. We can do it eight months into the future,” said chief executive David Dilley, whose company sells its forecasts to insurance firms and big retailers.

Managing risks

Climate change is already causing drier droughts, more intense floods and wilder temperature swings across the United States, the National Climate Assessment said in May.

The winter of 2014, when frigid temperatures roiled natural gas markets as heating needs rose, may be a glimpse of what lies ahead.

Major trading houses, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, hedge funds and energy producers made and lost hundreds of millions of dollars as gas futures prices spiked by more than 50 per cent to a five-year high of $6.49 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in late February. At a delivery point into New York City, spot prices rose twentyfold.

Oil giant ConocoPhillips posted some $200 million in profit during the quarter from natural gas. Texas-based hedge funds e360 and Goldfinch reportedly had gains of 14 per cent and 21 per cent in January, respectively, when gas spiked.

“It was a very unusual quarter because of weather,” ConocoPhillips CFO Jeff Sheets told Reuters in May, describing a successful winter of gas trading. He warned the results might not be repeatable.

Earnings fall

Commodities giant Cargill Inc.’s quarterly earnings fell 28 per cent on market disruptions that it blamed in part on extreme weather.

Most firms active in energy markets have contracts with several forecasting companies, paying them tens of thousands of dollars a year.

StatWeather, which just moved to Houston from Florida to be closer to clients, declined to detail its roster of users and several trading houses consulted by Reuters would not identify their suppliers.

Air Liquide, which produces and buys power to distil specialized gases, said it relies on half a dozen suppliers — like StatWeather, Planalytics, DTN, Wilkens and Vaisala — that track not just temperature but also wind and in one case lightning.

The forecasts help it monitor pipeline safety, calibrate its plants based on the price and availability of power, and gauge when the Texas grid might suffer supply disruptions.

The suppliers distinguish themselves by forecast time frame; each is better at viewing a particular slice of the future, said Charles Harper, Air Liquide’s global head of smart manufacturing.

As the forecast battle continues, there’s one fundamental disagreement — whether human instinct plays a role in the science.

“You live by the model, you die by the model,” said Marshall Wickman, senior meteorologist at Wilkens Weather, a unit of Rockwell Collins. The wise forecaster doesn’t wager everything on the computer, he believes.

“That’s where the meteorologist comes in. The model doesn’t do everything. It’s a guide,” he said.

The post Climate change heats up ‘quants’ versus old-school forecast battle appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Religion, culture and science are competing for primacy in the debate on how acceptable corn produced by genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is in a country where farmers first domesticated maize about 8,000 years ago.

Last month a federal judge in Mexico City created a stir by ordering a temporary halt to any new GMO corn permits, accepting a lawsuit brought by opponents of the crop.

It was widely interpreted as a definitive ban on the commercial use of GMO corn in Mexico, but experts say it will likely just delay any resolution into 2014 or beyond.

With Mexican output falling short of demand, GMO backers are keen to open the door to firms such as Monsanto, which have applications pending to plant some 2.5 million hectares of GMO corn, an area roughly the size of Rwanda.

The Agriculture Ministry must first finish designating the “centres of origin” where GMO corn farming would be banned, and set other safety regulations before permits can be issued.

And it must also wait until the legal wrangling has been settled since the federal judge sided with opponents, finding that GMO corn has already been planted illegally in Mexico.

“It’s a very controversial topic,” Agriculture Minister Enrique Martinez said recently. “This will have a final resolution that adheres to what the scientists decide.”

The science is hotly disputed. Proponents of GMO corn say studies show that production will rise, and costly inputs such as pesticides and fertilizers would fall. They add that GMO crops have proven safe for human consumption.

Opponents, meanwhile, contend that large-scale GMO plantings will contaminate native strains of the grain and harm biodiversity. They also point to toxins that protect GMO corn against pests that may be linked to elevated insect mortality, which could undermine pollination.

Mariano Ruiz, a deputy agriculture minister in the previous government who backs GMO corn, said the case will likely reach Mexico’s Supreme Court and cause at least a year’s delay.

Although President Enrique Pena Nieto’s administration has avoided taking a firm position on its commercial use, Ruiz believes it supports GMO corn. And in his view, there was no question about the legitimacy of large-scale planting.

“There isn’t a legal vacuum, there’s a delay in the application of the law,” he told Reuters.

Born of corn

Despite its humble origins, corn is by far the planet’s most produced grain, dwarfing both wheat and rice output.

Mexico now plants 7.2 million hectares of corn annually to grow mostly white corn, which is used for human consumption, including the country’s staple tortillas.

Last year its farmers produced some 21 million tonnes of corn, or about three per cent of global production. But the country consumed roughly 30 million tonnes, making up the difference with U.S. imports.

Mexico already imports tens of thousands of tonnes of GMO yellow corn each year, largely for animal feed, and permits planting of other GMO crops, mainly cotton and soybeans.

Supporters of GMO corn like Mexico’s corn farmers’ federation argue it can boost yields by up to 15 per cent.a

Their peers in the United States, Brazil and Argentina — the world’s top three corn exporters — are already producing large quantities of GMO corn.

But the crop has a unique place in Mexico. The 49 landraces of corn, or distinct strains improved over time by traditional methods, and thousands of individual varieties, are often tied to specific indigenous groups and religious ceremonies.

Scientists say modern corn comes from teosinte, a tiny wild grain native to southern Mexico.

The ancient Maya believed the gods made the first humans out of corn, after rejecting earlier clay and wood forms.

“The women and men of corn saw as much as the gods,” reads the Popol Vuh, the sacred text of the Maya, who still live in Mexico. “Their glance ranged over the whole world.”

Legal limbo

In 2009, during the previous administration of President Felipe Calderon, changes to Mexico’s biosafety law allowed biotech crop developers for the first time to experiment with GMO corn trials in approved regions of Mexico.

Since then, dozens of pilot permits have tested GMO corn strains for their tolerance to herbicides as well as resistance to insects and drought. But Calderon left office without approving large-scale GMO corn plantings.

Those corn permits could have been approved as early as February, but the change of government led to a delay.

GMO corn backers like Alejandro Monteagudo of industry lobby AgroBIO, argue Mexico has no reason to fear tinkering with DNA in search of larger yields and hardier plants.

“The government’s biosecurity measures allow us to be calm that (commercial GMO corn plantings) are done legally and with no impact on the environment or biodiversity,” he said.

But opponents say Monsanto’s proprietary seeds essentially privatize corn production and threaten age-old farming practices by making farmers buy new GMO seeds rather than harvest them from Mexico’s current crops.

Unsurprisingly, they applaud the judge’s ruling last month.

“This decision is unprecedented,” said Aleira Lara, the head of Greenpeace Mexico’s sustainable agriculture campaign.

Greenpeace, which is not a party to the case, will immediately file a separate suit if the Agriculture Ministry approves any permits as the court case proceeds, Lara said.

The extended political and legal fight leaves five applications for commercial-scale GMO cornfields in limbo.

Monsanto has submitted two applications, both of which seek 700,000 hectares for GMO corn in the northwestern state of Sinaloa, the country’s largest corn-producing area.

The Mexican unit of Pioneer Hi-Bred International, part of DuPont, has three bids, each of which would cover about 350,000 hectares in northeastern Tamaulipas state.

Meanwhile, Dow AgroSciences de Mexico, part of Dow Chemical, has one application for 40,000 hectares in Tamaulipas.

The post Past and future collide as Mexico fights over GMO corn appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

The measure died 47.05 per cent to 52.95 per cent, according to results updated Nov. 7 night by the Washington Secretary of State’s office as results continued to trickle in. The likely loss followed a similar defeat last year in California when a ballot initiative there also failed to pass.

“It is pretty well beyond any doubt,” said Secretary of State elections division spokesman David Ammons of the apparent defeat of the labelling proposal. Results will be certified on Dec. 4 and are unlikely to change much, he added.

The measures in Washington and California had early strong support in polls. That support ebbed as food and agricultural industry players poured millions of dollars into advertising campaigns spelling out what the industry groups said were deep flaws in the proposed laws. A consortium that includes General Mills, Nestle USA, PepsiCo, Monsanto, and other corporate giants, contributed roughly $22 million to kill the labelling law.

Despite the Washington loss, proponents pushing for labelling on food made from genetically modified crops cite progress in 20 other U.S. states, particularly in Massachusetts, New York and New Hampshire. They say they will also turn up the pressure on federal lawmakers and regulators.

The 2016 presidential election is a prime target for more ballot initiative efforts due to higher voter turnout, they say.

“We’ll keep bringing the fight until they give in,” said David Bronner, who has contributed more than $2 million to the labelling effort through a California organic soap company he owns. “The commitment of our movement… is huge and growing.”

Opponents of labelling say they do not want to keep waging a multimillion-dollar, state-by-state fight against mandatory GMO labelling. Any labelling should be voluntary and follow standards set at the federal level as state-by-state labelling could create costly problems for food manufacturing and distribution channels, they say.

The Grocery Manufacturers Association, (GMA) which represents more than 300 food companies, is funding efforts in 25 states to defeat labelling measures. The group is pushing for a “federal solution that will protect consumers by ensuring that the FDA, America’s leading food safety authority, sets national standards for the safety and labelling of products made with GMO ingredients,” GMA CEO Pamela Bailey said in a statement.

Officials at Monsanto, which spent more than $5 million to kill the Washington measure, say labelling supporters are trying to create the false impression that biotech foods are harmful.

“We absolutely support the consumer’s right to know,” said Robb Fraley, chief technology officer at Monsanto, the world’s largest seed company. “But we can’t support misleading labels that infer there is something unsafe about biotech products.”

Monsanto has developed an array of biotech corn, soybeans and other crops that have been genetically altered to repel pests and tolerate direct spraying of herbicides. Those crops are used in a vast array of food products.

The companies say the crops are safe and many scientific studies back those claims. But there are also studies showing links to human and animal health problems, and environmental damage.

Proponents of labelling fear the food and biotech agriculture companies will seek a federal ban to pre-empt more state labelling efforts. But they continue to express confidence in long-term victory.

“There is growing consumer outrage and backlash,” said Dave Murphy, executive director of Food Democracy Now, a consumer group that supports labelling. “We are going to wear them down. We are going to win.”

The post After Washington GMO label battle, both sides eye national fight appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

The consulting company estimates Manitoba corn production provided nearly $117 million in added value to the provincial economy in 2012 based on direct and indirect sales of $281 million and 852 jobs it creates, including 402 full-time equivalent, non-farm jobs, the report says.

Growing corn instead of canola added $16.06 million to the Manitoba economy from increased sales of $121.13 million and an additional 168 non-farm jobs. Canola was used in the comparison because it is widely grown and like corn has a relatively high cost of production.

The MCGA believed corn is important to Manitoba but wanted accurate, up-to-date figures to prove it, association and Carman-area farmer Myron Krahn said in an interview July 4.

“We want to make sure provincial (government) officials are aware of that when they go to make their decisions,” he said.

The MCGA expected the study would reveal corn’s strong monetary contribution to the economy but was pleasantly surprised by how many jobs are created, Krahn said.

The report also concludes Manitoba’s corn industry is stabilizing, while acreage and production continue to increase making the province less reliant on imported American corn.

“We’re finally getting to the point where we can supply our own local markets,” Krahn said.

Sixty-eight per cent of Manitoba’s corn is fed to livestock, 21 per cent goes to make ethanol at Husky’s plant in Minnedosa, five per cent is made into booze at Gimli and five per cent is exported to nearby provinces, the study says.

For years corn, a heat-loving crop that requires a long growing period, was an important but smaller-acreage crop in Manitoba. But last year it ranked sixth at 299,000 acres behind canola (3.57 million acres), wheat (2.99 million) soybeans (800,000), barley (540,000) and oats (300,000), based on figures from Statistics Canada.

Moreover, Manitoba farmers harvested a record 121 bushels of corn per acre producing a record 815,000 tonnes — almost double 2011’s production and the previous five-year average.

Corn is expanding in Manitoba thanks to the development of earlier-maturing varieties. And seed companies are committed to developing even earlier ones.

In June Monsanto announced it’s investing $100 million over 10 years to develop corn hybrids that can potentially be grown on 26 million acres across Western Canada.

“Taking into consideration crop rotations, this could result in an estimated annual western corn market of eight million to 10 million acres by 2025, up significantly from the current annual western Canadian corn acreage of around 300,000 to 500,000 acres — the large majority of which is confined to southern Manitoba,” Monsanto said in a release.

DuPont Pioneer announced a similar goal a year ago.

“If we get to a 70-day corn hybrid that opens up about 10 million acres (in the West),” Greg Stokke, DuPont Pioneer’s business director for Western Canada, commercial unit, said in an interview last year. “When you get down to that 68-day corn hybrid you open up about 20 million acres in Western Canada. In 10 years or less we’ll be at 68 day (1900 CHU).”

To put those goals into perspective western farmers seeded 20 million acres of wheat and 19 million acres of canola last year.

Corn has the potential to earn farmers good money, but it’s also a high-risk crop, Krahn said. Record yields and high prices last year have raised corn’s profile. But new growers need to be careful.

“Take baby steps,” Krahn advises. “Feel your way in.

“We’re certainly encouraging producers to try corn, but just be careful and level headed about it.”

Traditionally there has been corn wreck in Manitoba about once every 10 years. The last was 2004 when the provincial average crop insurance yield was just 1.3 bushels an acre. However, there have been some bumper crops since, including last year’s.

Like most Manitoba crops, corn started off slowly in 2013 because of the late, cool, wet spring. But the crop improved following warmer weather.

“It’s amazing what two or three weeks will do,” Krahn said.

“I would say it looks really good now. I would rate it good to excellent versus two weeks ago.”

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I’m the secretary of agriculture, and I am not here today to give a scientific lecture on climate change. I’m here to tell you what we’re seeing on the ground.

We’re seeing more severe storms. We’re facing more invasive species. More intense forest fires threaten communities each year. NOAA (U.S. weather service) reported that 2012 was the second most intense year in our history for extreme weather events — droughts, flooding, hurricanes, severe storms and devastating wildfire. NOAA also advised that last year was the warmest on record for the continental United States.

New technologies and advanced practices have managed to keep production steady even in the face of these new and more extreme weather patterns.

But the latest science tells us that the threat of a changing climate is new and different from anything we’ve ever tackled.

Earlier this year USDA released two comprehensive studies — one focused on crops and one on our forests — detailing the projected effects of climate change on our agriculture and forestry production.

These studies found that in the short term we have the means to manage threats, but over the next 50 years we will face new and different problems.

We’ll face the need to adapt crop production. As temperatures increase, crop production may need to shift based on water availability and other factors. Where you’re growing water-intense fruits and vegetables today, you may be growing a drought-resistant row crop in a generation.

Rising temperatures will also add to our invasive species issues, bringing with them increased costs for producers. Right now, weed control alone costs us more than $11 billion a year in the U.S. — and those costs are expected to rise with increasing temperatures. When winters aren’t cold enough to kill off invasive insects, we’ll face a new challenge to adapt to those threats. Landowners, dealing with bark beetles, are already starting to experience this phenomenon.

We will face more severe weather patterns. We’ll see more events that could harm crops and livestock, which demand new strategies.

In our forests, the troubling pattern of intense and destructive wildfires threatens to become the norm. The fire season is now at least 60 days longer than it was just 30 years ago. The pine beetle epidemic, which many scientists attribute to climate change, covers some 40 million acres of land across the interior West. Fires impact more acres. A recent Forest Service study forecasts a doubling of annual acreage subject to wild land fire by 2050.

In the Northeast, extreme precipitation events have increased faster than anywhere else in the nation, reducing yields.

Across the Midwest and Great Plains the growing season has lengthened by almost two weeks over my lifetime.

In the West and Southwest — home of more than half of our nation’s high-value specialty crop production — increased drought poses a particular threat to irrigation-intensive nuts, fruits and vegetables.

So the fact is, across America, farmers and ranchers and forest landowners are seeing the beginning chapter of what will be a long-term challenge posed by a changing climate. This problem is not going to go away on its own.

That’s why America must take steps now to adapt.

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