Reuters reported as such on Feb. 10, noting that deep staff cuts to the department made by the Trump administration have been seen as a main culprit. Reuters said there was growing skepticism in the USDA’s corn acres, which has concerned those who depend on the ups and downs of corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn acres and distrust

The crux of the matter is the USDA’s corn estimates from June 2025 compared to those this January. Last month, the department finalized 2025/26 corn acres at 98.8 million planted and 91.3 million harvested. Those numbers are up 8.7 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, from 2024/25.

In June, the USDA estimated 2025/26 planted corn acres at 95.3 million. Harvested acres were projected to be 87.4 million.

It’s a given that adjustments will be made over time, but the scope of the adjustment has the corn industry worried about the quality of the data from the USDA. After all, the USDA is widely considered to be among the best sources for such information, be it from farmer surveys or model-based analysis. In terms of accuracy, the USDA has typically been considered a gold standard.

Lack of willing farmer participation in the USDA surveys is part of the problem. That’s compounded by fewer staff interpreting and processing that data.

There are always going to be skeptics when it comes to such an information gathering process. It’s the level of that distrust that can become disturbing.

Canola harvest

As a reporter, I’ve often compared the numbers coming from Statistics Canada (StatCan) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to what the USDA says about Canada.

I marked with some amazement how close StatCan and the USDA came to estimating the 2025/26 Canadian canola harvest. StatCan pegged it at 21.80 million tonnes, while the USDA projected 22 million. That told me that StatCan was likely pretty close to the amount of canola.

Unfortunately, the USDA’s reports on other countries have also come under scrutiny — again, because there are far fewer staff to oversee gathering that information.

The USDA now is looking inward. It’s trying to figure out what happened with its corn numbers and how to rebuild the credibility it’s lost.

Let’s hope effective solutions are put in place that keep this treasure trove of information coming.

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Corn futures eased on the day, with the most-active contract Cv1 ended the week nearly 2.05 per cent lower, amid expectations of a large U.S. harvest.

Corn faced pressure from weather forecasts calling for milder nighttime temperatures in the Midwest in August, which can be beneficial to the plants during the crucial grain-fill period, traders said.

CBOT soybeans slipped on trade uncertainty and export demand questions, as U.S. weekly export sales hovered at the lower end of trade estimates.

Traders said they were trying to position ahead of the Trump administration’s August 1 tariff deadline, but were hesitant to make big shifts in their trading models as U.S. talks are progressing with several top export markets.

The European Union and the United States could reach a framework deal on trade this weekend, ending months of uncertainty for European industry, EU officials and diplomats said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 140,000 metric tons of U.S. new-crop corn to South Korea and another 102,870 tons to Mexico, and private sales of 142,500 metric tons of U.S. new-crop soybeans to Mexico.

The most-active wheat, soybean and corn futures all ended the week lower. CBOT wheat Wv1 ended down 3-1/4 cents at $5.38-1/4 a bushel, with CBOT corn Cv1 closing 1-3/4 cents lower at $4.19 a bushel.CBOT soybeans Sv1 settled down 3-1/4 cents at $10.21 a bushel.

U.S. wheat exports, which have been considered among the cheapest on the global market, have been brisk. Net U.S. wheat export sales for the week ended July 17 came in at 712,000 metric tons, at the high end of a range of trade estimates.

Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour projected hard red spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 49.0 bushels per acre, down from a record 54.5 bpa last year.

While North Dakota accounts for roughly half of U.S. spring wheat production, crop conditions in nearby states are showing wide variability, said Mike Castle, a senior market analyst at StoneX.

In an note Friday, Castle said Minnesota’s crop is in nearly the best condition on record, while Montana’s crop was rated as the worst on record until recently.

– Additional reporting by Peter Hobson and Sybille de La Hamaide

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Monday’s cattle declines came after managed funds had bolstered their long holdings in both markets over recent weeks, encouraged by tight cattle supplies and resilient demand for beef.

“The managed money added to their net longs in feeders and, to a lesser degree, in fats and it just opened the door for some long liquidation and some profit taking,” said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics.

News that meat packer Tyson Foods would be closing another of its meat processing plants stoked concern among some livestock traders that the packing industry may be poised for further belt-tightening that could dent livestock demand.

The plant in Emporia, Kansas, which produces seasoned and marinated meats but does not slaughter livestock, is slated to close in February.

“This kind of news is price-negative for the wholesale and producer prices and price-positive for the retail market. It’s not a slaughter plant, but it goes along with other Tyson plants that have closed,” Zuzolo said.

CME January feeder cattle FCF25 dropped 2.625 cents to end at 256.850 cents per pound. February live cattle LCG25 shed 0.700 cent to 188.625 cents per pound.

The declines come after a two-week tear in the feeder cattle market that took prices up more than six per cent following a halt in cattle imports from Mexico over a case of New World screwworm in a cow there.

CME lean hog futures advanced on Monday, supported by rising wholesale pork prices.

February hogs LHG25 jumped 1.625 cents to 86.325 cents per pound.

The wholesale pork carcass cutout gained $2.35 on Monday to $92.66 per cwt, led by a strong gain in hams.

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Corn followed wheat lower.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1settled down 4-3/4 cents at $5.64-3/4 per bushel, but rose about 2 per cent for the week.

Soybean futures Sv1 closed up 5-3/4 to $9.83-1/2 a bushel, moving up about 1.5 per cent for the week, while corn Cv1settled down 1-1/4 cents at $4.25-1/2 per bushel, rising about 0.40 per cent for the week.

Wheat futures WH25 jumped on Thursday, setting up actively traded nearby contracts for weekly gains of about 2 per cent on concerns about Black Sea region supplies.

Russia launched a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro in response to the U.S. and the UK allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western weapons, and warned that more could follow.

The strike gave traders an excuse to cover short positions, said Austin Schroder, a commodity analyst at Brugler Marketing and Management. But prices retreated as the dollar gained on Friday as strength in the dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive to holders of other currencies.

Soybeans experienced a technical bounce from contract lows on Thursday, Schroeder said.

But that market remains anchored by good South American crop weather and trade deals between China and Brazil which signalled a cozier relationship that could hurt U.S. exports, according to analysts.

China granted Brazil permission to export sorghum, fresh grapes, sesame and fish products to Chinese buyers, the Latin American country’s agriculture ministry said on Wednesday.

In Argentina, 2024/25 soybean planting progressed by 16 percentage points in the past week, reaching 35.8 per cent of the 18.6 million hectares projected for the season, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

– Additional reporting by Mei Mei Chu in Beijing and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris

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Wheat and corn futures also dipped as funds sought profits and positioned ahead of two U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that will be released next week.

All three crops were nevertheless on track for weekly gains.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Wv1 settled down 7-3/4 cents to $5.67 per bushel but settled up 2.8 per cent for the week.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 settled down 18-1/2 cents to $10.05 per bushel and settled up 0.5 per cent for the week. Corn Cv1 settled down 4-1/2 cents to $4.06-1/4 per bushel.

The rallies were driven by speculators unwinding some of their hefty short positions. A weaker dollar and some concerns over dry weather in the U.S. Midwest had encouraged short covering in previous days, traders said.

Light rain is expected across chunks of the U.S. Midwest, a note from Commodity Weather Group said, but it may be too little too late to ensure the soybean crop has enough moisture to reach its yield potential.

Many traders are waiting for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to release its September crop estimates next week before making big moves.

“The USDA report next Thursday is expected to confirm high yields, but whether they’ll be as high as what was reported remains to be seen,” Brian Basting, analyst at Advanced Trading, said.

Wheat prices have been supported by reports of poor harvests in Europe, notably in the largest producer France, set to yield the smallest volume in more than 40 years while also producing mixed grain quality after heavy rain and limited sunshine during the growing season.

However, cheap wheat from Russia and increasing exports from Ukraine have maintained pressure on U.S. wheat futures.

– Additional reporting by Peter Hobson and Sybille de La Hamaide

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Wheat followed corn downward, while brisk exports from the Black Sea region continued to curb prices.

A lower dollar and concerns over damaging, dry U.S. Midwestern weather encouraged recent short-covering in grain markets where investors had built up big short positions.

However, commodity funds added new short positions on Thursday on the perception that corn and soy futures had become over-valued, traders said.

“The hedge funds have a bias to be short the market,” said Joe Davis, broker at Futures International. “The market is fundamentally bearish with large crops here and in South America.”

The most-active corn contract Cv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade settled down 2 cents to $4.10-3/4 per bushel, and soybeans Sv1 ended down 2 cents to $10.23-1/2 per bushel. CBOT wheat Wv1lost 6 cents to $5.74-3/4 per bushel.

Despite a dry end to the U.S. growing season and drought in Brazil that may hamper early planting, corn and soybean markets are expected to be well supplied.

StoneX on Wednesday lowered its U.S. corn production estimate to 15.127 billion bushels from 15.207 billion and raised its estimate for U.S. soybean output to 4.575 billion bushels from 4.483 billion.

Soybean futures gained little support from news of fresh U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destinations.

Traders are awaiting next week’s U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report and September crop estimates before making big moves.

“We want to see something definitive before we jump in with both feet,” said Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading.

– Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra

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Corn on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose on spillover support from soy futures while wheat increased as harvest pressure eased and traders covered short positions.

Industry players have been assessing whether overly dry weather in the U.S. Midwest will dent earlier projections of bumper soybean yields in the upcoming harvest.

“We’re not ending the growing season in ideal fashion. Some of these areas need rain to reach their maximum yield potential,” Mark Soderberg, analyst at ADM, said.

Dryness is stressing roughly 25 per cent of the nation’s corn and soy crop, Commodity Weather Group said in a note.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reduced its weekly rating for soybean crops more than anticipated after Tuesday’s market close. The condition of corn crops held steady last week, surpassing average analyst expectations.

CBOT corn Cv1inched up 3-1/2 cents to $4.12-3/4 per bushel. Soybeans Sv1settled up 9-1/2 cents to $10.21-1/2 per bushel. Soybeans have also been supported as the possibility of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola raised hopes that China could buy more U.S. soy.

The most-active CBOT wheat contract Wv1settled up 14 cents at $5.80-3/4 per bushel.

All three crops have been moving away from near four-year lows, with the recovery boosted by short-covering and a weaker dollar amid a risk-off mood in financial markets. GRA/

Farmers continued to clear out old-crop corn to make room for the new harvest, pressuring the nearby corn contract, though selling of old-crop soybeans has slowed to a trickle.

Russian wheat prices have stabilized and strengthening European wheat prices have added support to U.S. wheat futures and spurred short covering, traders said.

“Wheat is taking cues from overseas,” Tom Fritz, broker at EFG Group, said.

– Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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The ICE canola contract for November delivery RSX4 dropped seven per cent to its daily limit on the news as the move could disrupt trade in Canada’s main export market for the oilseed.

Market participants saw the news as an indication that China may seek other oilseed options, such as soybeans and rapeseed, traders said. China’s rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange CRSMcv1 jumped six per cent following the announcement, hitting its highest since Aug. 6.

“There’s no doubt the canola story is giving quite a bit of support to soybean futures today,” said Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting. “It’s that and the fact that we’re starting to see Chinese demand for soybeans perk up, even though they’re still severely under-bought.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1 – the third soybean sale to top buyer China in the past week.

Adding further support, USDA on Tuesday reported U.S. weekly export inspections of 496,860 metric tons of soybeans for the week ended Aug. 29, which was at the high end of analyst expectations.

CBOT’s most-active soybeans Sv1 ended the day up 12 cents, at $10.12 a bushel. During the session, they rose to $10.24-1/2 a bushel, the highest price since Aug. 7.

Chicago grain futures gained on technical support and bargain buying, as they resumed trading following Monday’s U.S. Labor Day holiday. MKTS/GLOB

Corn futures also were supported by traders expecting the USDA to report crop ratings turning lower in the Midwest, market analysts said.

CBOT corn Cv1 settled up 8-1/4 cents to $4.09-1/4 per bushel, while wheat Wv1 ended up 15-1/4 cents to $5.66-3/4 a bushel.

– Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra

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Though scouts on the four-day crop tour said there was solid soybean crop potential in the two states, some questioned whether corn yields in South Dakota would hit the hefty levels the government has predicted – and whether there could be more grain in Ohio than expected.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month forecast a record U.S. soybean crop and the third-largest corn crop – a bounty that comes as grain and oilseed prices have slumped to nearly four-year lows amid robust global supplies and growing concerns about demand from top soybean buyer China.

South Dakota’s average corn yields were projected at 156.51 bushels per acre (bpa), the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said, below the 2023 crop tour average of 157.42 bpa but higher than the three-year crop tour average of 142.44 bpa.

Some scouts found persistent rains at the beginning of the growing season had limited the number of ears on the plants, pressuring yields in some fields.

“It was disappointing,” crop scout Sherman Newlin said.

In Ohio, the tour’s state average corn yield was projected at 183.29 bpa, just below the 2023 crop tour average of 183.94 bpa and above the prior three-year average of 181.06 bpa.

The USDA has projected a seven per cent increase in South Dakota’s corn yield this year and a five per cent drop in Ohio’s, compared to 2023.

The four-day crop tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in South Dakota at an average of 1,025.89 pods, up from last year’s average of 1,013.00 pods and above the three-year average of 960.42 pods.

It estimated the amount of soybean pods per 3-by-3-foot square in Ohio at an average of 1,229.93 pods, down from last year’s average of 1,252.93 pods but above the three-year average of 1,193.31 pods.

The tour will release forecasts for Indiana and Nebraska on Tuesday.

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Meanwhile, corn rose as the government agency saw smaller than expected acreage, and wheat fell on competition from Black Sea crops.

The Chicago Board of Trade’s most active soybean contract Sv1 fell 19-1/2 cents to $9.83 a bushel by 12:37 p.m. CDT (1737 GMT) and corn Cv1 rose 7-1/4 cents to $4.02-1/4 a bushel.

Wheat Wv1 fell 4-1/2 cents to $5.38 a bushel.

The USDA’s monthly world agricultural supply and demand report forecast a record soybean crop at 4.589 billion bushels, surpassing analysts’ already record expectations and prompting major losses.

“USDA is looking for a potential record crop, so the beans are down pretty hard,” said Jack Scoville, vice president at Price Group.

Meanwhile, some analysts were taken aback by a lower than expected harvested acres forecast in corn.

“Apparently farmers, looking at low (grain) prices and high inputs, decided to plant less corn and more beans. That area up in Minnesota, Iowa and up there in the Northern Plains that had some excess water, they switched to some beans,” said Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading.

Wheat faced pressure from the disclosure of offers on Egypt’s biggest ever wheat tender, highlighting the competitive pricing of Black Sea supplies.

Some 15 suppliers submitted offers in the Egyptian tender, with the cheapest price before freight for Ukrainian wheat and limited offers of French wheat much pricier, traders said.

Wheat’s fall was limited by bad crop news from France and elsewhere in Europe.

France’s 2024 soft wheat crop is expected to be 25 per cent below last year’s after relentless rain.

– Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Michael Hogan in Hamburg

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