Stanford University scientists say hot and dry conditions are now regularly hitting multiple regions at the same time. These crop yield shrinking, food price destabilizing and environmentally catastrophic conditions are now twice as likely.

Climate change has doubled the odds that a region will suffer a year that is both warm and dry compared to the average for that place during the middle of the 20th century. It’s also becoming more likely that dry and severely warm conditions will hit key agricultural regions in the same year, potentially making it harder for surpluses in one location to make up for low yields in another.

“When we look in the historical data at the key crop and pasture regions, we find that before anthropogenic climate change, there were very low odds that any two regions would experience those really severe conditions simultaneously,” said climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, senior author of the study published Nov. 28 in Science Advances.

“The global marketplace provides a hedge against localized extremes, but we’re already seeing an erosion of that climate buffer as extremes have increased in response to global warming,” said Diffenbaugh.

The new study points to a future in which multiple regions are at risk of experiencing low crop yields simultaneously. That’s because, while some crops can thrive in a warm growing season, others — particularly crops like wheat, rice, corn and soybeans — grow and mature too quickly when temperatures rise, consecutive dry days pile up and warmth persists overnight.

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It says international trade will play an ever-larger role in helping to feed people in food-deficit regions as warmer temperatures and less precipitation will damage yields in many tropical areas.

Temperate areas, such as Canada and the United States, are likely to see increases in agricultural production over that time.

That situation is likely to widen the food-supply gap between developed countries and developing nations, the report states.

The report called The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, said international trade will play a pivotal role in moving food from areas of surplus to regions of shortages.

It says low-altitude areas of Asia, Africa and Latin America are likely to come out losers.

It said yields by 2050 in West Africa could fall as much as 2.9 per cent and by as much as 2.6 per cent in India.

Canada could see agricultural production increase 2.5 per cent by 2050 and Russian agricultural production could rise 0.9 per cent, the report says. Canada could also see its net agricultural exports increase 21.9 per cent, based on the FAO’s modelling.

The report also says that by 2050, agriculture on a global scale will have to find a way to increase production by 50 per cent while also reducing greenhouse gases.

It suggested subsidies and policies that promote adoption of climate-friendly technologies and practices, as well as hedging tools to guard against extreme weather events.

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In the most general sense, drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time — usually a season or more — resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector.

Which then leads to this slightly more specific definition:

Drought is a protracted period of deficient precipitation resulting in extensive damage to crops, resulting in loss of yield.

Using the first definition, I would say we have definitely seen a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time. Table 1 (below) includes data I have put together showing the total amount of precipitation that has fallen from January to April of this year, the long-term average, and the driest period we have seen on record. In Table 2 (below) I’ve extended the time frame to cover November 2017 through to April 2018.

The first point of note is that all three locations have seen below-average amounts of precipitation over both of these time frames. The Winnipeg region has been the driest, with only around 33 per cent of average precipitation. Dauphin is the next driest, with around 50 per cent of average. Finally, the Brandon region came in with around 70 per cent of average. The Winnipeg region is the only area, at this level of examination, that has broken records for the driest November-to-April and January-to-April periods. In fact, Winnipeg easily broke both records with the January-to-April record going all the way back to 1875. So, if you are saying that this has been the driest winter and spring that you can ever remember, you are probably right, since the previous records for the Brandon and Dauphin regions occurred back in the mid-1920s and early 1930s.

We definitely have seen a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time — usually a season or more. Therefore, according to the first definition, we are now in a drought. Looking at the second definition, a drought occurs when a deficiency of precipitation results in extensive damage to crops. Since this year’s crops are not yet actively growing we can’t yet say that we have seen extensive damage. I know in my region with the wet Red River clay soils, most farmers are just finishing up seeding, so for them another week or so of dry weather is just perfect. I just finished tilling up my own three gardens and I must admit the soil and soil moisture levels were just about perfect. So, do we need to worry about drought?

While soil moisture levels have been good for getting on the land and planting, the lack of snowmelt and scarce spring rains have left very little available water. Water levels in rivers, streams and water bodies are low, along with ground water levels. So, while everything is good right now, there is very little capacity in the current water system to handle ongoing dry conditions. With the current prediction of warm, dry weather, it won’t take long before we begin to feel the adverse effects of dry weather. If the dry weather impacts germination and early-season growth, then we’ll quickly begin seeing extensive crop damage taking place — a drought based on the second definition above.

Now, it is easy to cry doom and gloom — heck, the potential is there — but we also know that dry weather has and can quickly turn into wet weather. Can we have a dry May and still be OK? I think so. June and July are the wettest months, with a majority of the rainfall coming from thunderstorms that are notoriously difficult to predict. What would suffer if we continue to see dry weather for the next couple of weeks would be a lot of the hayfields. With the dry winter and spring there was little standing water in the fields. This usually helps to warm the top level of soil and gets things actively growing. With the available soil moisture and with no rain, it looks to be a slow start to the growing season for hay. With a limited time period to get good growth before the summer heat hits, it may be the hayfields that feel the first impacts of drought.

Next issue we’ll continue to see how things are shaping up rain-wise, and then we’ll begin our annual look at thunderstorms, since thunderstorm season is pretty much upon us.

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For this forecast period, it looks like the polar vortex isn’t totally breaking down. After a mild start to the week, temperatures are going to cool back down Thursday and Friday as arctic high pressure pushes in. Over the weekend we will see temperatures moderate as an area of low pressure comes in off the B.C. coast and moves across central North America. The weather models are having a hard time determining just how this low will evolve, so confidence in this part of the forecast is low. There is the potential for some accumulating snow from this low, with extreme southern regions seeing the best chance late in the weekend as the main energy moves through the Dakotas.

Behind this system we will see yet another arctic high drop south from the Yukon, bringing a return to colder temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the -14 to -18 C range with overnight lows around -25 C. The high is forecast to drop well to our south by the end of next week, which will place us in a more westerly flow starting Wednesday or Thursday. Combine this with a predicted weakening of the polar vortex and it is likely slightly above-average temperatures will move in starting late next week.

Except for next weekend, the weather models are not showing any significant chances of snow any time before the end of the month.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -17 to -3 C; lows, -30 to -11 C.

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“There can be lots of fights about water,” said Ag Days speaker Allan Preston, chair of the Assiniboine River Basin Initiative (ARBI) who began his Jan. 17 presentation ‘Across the Fencelines’ talk using the famous Mark Twain quote ‘whisky is for drinking, water is for fighting over.’

Preston presides over an organization comprised of multiple stakeholder groups that agreed a few years back it was better to find mutually agreed ways to manage water instead of fight over it.

ARBI formed in 2014 bringing multiple groups from across the Qu’Appelle, Souris and Assiniboine sub-basins to the table to seek an integrated watershed approach to critical issues facing a region covering some 162,000 sq. km and home to 1.5 million people.

Last year ARBI released a framework document laying out key issues and challenges of stakeholder groups, and the approaches and new risk management tools they’re developing.

One projects ARBI is supporting is the soon-to-be-released Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association Aquanty HydroGeoSpheric model, a new computer program which will model various flood and drought scenarios and help landscape managers to plan accordingly.

Those drought scenarios need our attention — and planning too, Preston said at Ag Days.

“I think we’ve been so focussed on floods in the last number of years we’ve forgotten that climate cycles do indeed go back and forth and drought events are something that will come back to haunt us,” he said.

Canadian research scientists have ascertained that during pre-settlement periods in Western Canada drought cycles lasted at least as long as quarter century, he said. That’s far longer than the Dirty Thirties of the last century.

“We barely survived as a society a seven or eight year drought cycle in the 1930s,” he said. “Are we at all prepared to manage a 25 year drought?”

Preston’s talk was included in a session that also included presenters on the ‘why tos and how tos’ of tile drainage, and on agricultural best management practices for water management that can benefit for both the farm’s bottom line and the environment.

Read more from this January 16 Ag Days ‘Where the Water Flows’ session in an upcoming issue of the Manitoba Co-operator.

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The old environmental mantra of think globally, act locally is the best way to approach the impact of agriculture on climate change, say two experts from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Agriculture is projected to be the second most economically damaged sector by climate change while at the same time being a significant contributor to it, Guillaume Gruere, senior policy analyst with the OECD’s Trade and Agriculture Directorate, told the Senate agriculture committee recently.

Own interest

Governments should require climate change adaptation measures by farmers but they should account for local conditions, he said.

“Existing evidence shows there is a need for agriculture to undertake climate change adaptation actions, if only to reduce projected damages,” he said.

“Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and multiplication of extreme weather events are expected to impact agriculture productivity globally, but these impacts are also expected to vary significantly across locations.”

For example, the impact of climate change on wheat production is expected to be small but negative in North America as a whole; negative but more important in Europe, on average again; and much smaller and even positive in some scenarios in countries like Korea and Japan, Gruere said.

He also recommended that government policy should complement farmers’ own adaptation actions.

“Farmers already are taking actions to adapt to climate change,” he said. “Government’s role is necessary in the presence of market failures or where the condition for adaptation accesses the public good.”

Policy important

Governments should help educate farmers about research into ways to cope with climate change and assess the risks producers face, he said. They should also eliminate income support and other policies that discourage climate change adaptation.

Agriculture is one of the major greenhouse gas emitting sectors, he said.

“Direct emissions from the sector present about 10 to 12 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions,” he said. “It is the largest emitter of methane, mostly from ruminants, and nitrous oxide, mainly from manure and fertilizers, two gases with significantly higher global warming potential than CO2.”

Ben Henderson, an OECD Trade Policy Analyst, said recent research shows there are many cost-effective solutions for agriculture to lower its greenhouse gas emissions.

“However, the costs and benefits of these solutions vary a lot, making it difficult to identify practices that make economic sense everywhere,” Henderson said.

Carbon pricing policies can help steer farmers to the most cost-effective actions to reduce emissions and encourage innovation and investment toward lower carbon technologies for the future, he said.

“The broader the number of sectors and greenhouse gases covered by a carbon pricing instrument, the more cost effective it will be, which means lower costs to the economy, government and households in reaching any particular emission reduction target,” he told senators.

“The most desirable and direct carbon pricing approach is either tax emissions or to use an emission trading scheme with auction permits,” he said. “However, there are presently challenges associated with the measurement of agriculture emissions, but ongoing development of protocols for the measurement of these emissions could and should eventually ease these constraints, allowing greater participation by agriculture.”

Reduce risk

Countries might hesitate to introduce climate change mitigation because it could reduce their economic competitiveness, he said.

“However, if momentum from the Paris Agreement for the inclusion of agriculture in national plans to lower greenhouse gas emissions spreads among countries, these risks will fade,” he said.

In the meantime, it’s possible to implement carbon pricing in ways that reduce or eliminate competitive risks.

“One approach is to include agriculture as a voluntary auction or offset market, which government and other sectors that are required to pay for emissions can purchase emission reductions from agriculture,” he said. The OECD intends to release a report this year “that aims to address all of these issues on carbon pricing.” It will include an assessment of Canadian policies.

There are two broad strategies agriculture can follow in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Henderson said. “One is to improve the productive efficiency of the livestock sector. The other is to look for ways to reduce emissions, absorb emissions from the atmosphere through sequestration opportunities, such as building up soil carbon.”

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What makes these values over the last couple of months unusual is the lack of an on-going El Niño event. El Niño years tend to bring warmer global temperatures as the Pacific Ocean releases large amounts of heat into the atmosphere. While it looks like 2017 will end up coming in as the second- or third-warmest year on record, behind 2016 and 2015, it looks like it will be the warmest year ever without any influence from an El Niño.

Never mind El Niño, we need to talk a little bit about La Niña. La Niña, which means the girl or girl child in Spanish, is the opposite condition to El Niño, in that we see colder than average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. According to the November monthly advisory issued by NOAA, La Niña conditions are now in place in both the atmosphere and ocean and the odds are around 75 per cent these conditions will continue through to the end of this winter.

So, what does this mean for us? Well, to begin, the current La Niña, so far, is a weak one, which means its overall impact on global weather patterns will typically be less intense. Across our region La Niña typically brings cooler-than-average winter temperatures along with above-average amounts of precipitation. This type of pattern is most persistent over the western prairies and tends to become less persistent as you move eastwards into Manitoba. Since this looks to be a weak La Niña I would say that our current weather pattern has a good chance of being the dominant pattern this winter. Under this pattern we’ll see areas of low pressure cross the prairies every five to seven days. Ahead of these systems we will see mild air move in, followed by a return to cold conditions once the system passes by.

How much snow we’ll see will be determined by where the storm track sets up and how active it will be at any given time. Currently, the storm track is staying to our north, and while we will likely see this track drop southwards at different times, whether or not we will see significant snowfall will depend on whether or not the storm track is active when it is over us. I know that sounds a little wishy-washy, but at this time it is the best I can do. One downside to this possible pattern is that it often favours freezing rain as warm air is pulled northwards ahead of each area of low pressure — something some areas have already had a taste of this winter.

After all of this I decided to take a quick look ahead to see what the latest six-week forecast is calling for, and then what the latest three-month forecast is saying. According to the latest CFS weekly forecast, we should see warmer-than-average temperatures over the next three weeks, followed by cooler-than-average temperatures over the following three weeks. The warmest temperatures are expected over western and extreme southern regions, with near average values over the far north. During weeks 4 to 6 the coldest air is forecasted to remain just to our north, with southern regions running about 1 C to 3 C below average.

The longer range three-month forecast is calling for above average temperatures in December followed by slightly below average temperatures in January and well below average temperatures in February. I will continue to keep an eye on the evolving long-range winter forecasts and will continue to update you on any big changes.

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It was a remarkably consistent frost year with all three locations seeing both the last spring frost and the first fall frost within a couple of days of each other. While this year’s frost-free season wasn’t as long as last year’s, we still saw a frost-free season that was around two weeks longer than average.

Looking back at September, it was a warmer-than-average month. The biggest driver behind the warm September temperatures was the extremely warm start to the month. The first two weeks saw temperatures that were more like summer than early fall. Daytime highs soared into the low to mid-30s on Sept. 12 and broke numerous daily record highs. While we did see a few cool periods during the second half of the month, warm fall temperatures seemed to win out. When all the numbers were added up, the Winnipeg region was the absolute and relative hot spot, with a mean monthly temperature of 14.2 C, which was 1.5 C above its long-term average. The Dauphin region came in a close second with a mean monthly temperature of 13 C, which was 1.3 C above average. Last, but not least, was the Brandon region, which saw a mean monthly temperature of 12.7 C or about 0.9 C above the long-term average.

Looking at precipitation across the province, the dry weather we saw this summer finally broke during the second half of the month. Several systems brought significant rains during the last couple of weeks of September. Most notable were the scattered thunderstorms that brought upward of 30 to 40 mm on Sept. 22. Most of southern Manitoba saw rainfall amounts of around 60 to 80 mm in September, about 15 to 30 mm greater than average. The Dauphin region was the dry spot, with a report of about 50 mm of rain in September, or about five mm below its long-term average. Thanks to the dry summer, even the wettest areas could handle the rain, with most areas reporting workable soil conditions.

Who called it?

Overall, it was a warmer- and wetter-than-average month across most of Manitoba. Looking back at the forecasts, both of the almanacs were off, with predictions of cool and wet conditions. NOAA, CanSIPS, CFS, Environment Canada and my forecast all called for a warmer- and drier-than-average month. This means nobody was able to correctly predict this September’s weather. The question now is, does this mean our late-fall and early-winter forecast will be off as well?

According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac we will see a colder-than-average remainder of fall and the first part of winter, along with near- to slightly below-average amounts of rain/snow. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac also calls for colder-than-average temperatures as it mentions cold several times in its discussion. It also appears to call for above-average amounts of precipitation as it mentions stormy, wet, snowy conditions several times.

Moving on to Environment Canada, it calls for a better-than-average chance of seeing slightly warmer-than-average temperatures along with slightly higher-than-average amounts of precipitation. The CFS model calls for a warmer-than-average October that will then transition to a colder-than-average November and December. Along with the colder temperatures will come near-average amounts of snowfall. The CanSIPS model calls for above-average temperatures to continue, but will slowly cool toward more average values by December. It also follows the CFS models and is predicting near-average amounts of precipitation.

Finally, here is my meagre attempt at forecasting. With no strong global driving forces in place going into this winter, I will have to rely on persistence. This means that until we see a definite shift in the weather pattern that we’ve been in over the last several months, there is no reason to expect it to change. So, I will go with a forecast for slightly above-average temperatures along with near- to slightly below-average amounts of precipitation. As usual, all we have to do now is sit back and see what will happen. As for the rest of the winter, I will take a look at that in a month or so, but my gut is still saying we are long overdue for an epic winter storm.

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Sarah Feakins, a scientist at University of Southern California who has studied leaf wax in the context of climate change, teamed up recently with researchers at Texas A&M University to research and develop drought-resistant crops. During tests growing winter wheat the team found that the cultivars in a high and dry area of Texas generated more protective wax on their leaves as a measure to protect themselves against more extreme conditions.

The results mimicked what scientists have found in leaves in natural ecosystems: Those that survive in dry climates have higher concentrations of wax.

“Water conservation depends on innovation, and in this case, we are hoping to find one solution by identifying the traits in this important food crop that would enable the wheat plants to tolerate drought and still produce plenty for harvest,” said Feakins.

The study was published in the journal Organic Geochemistry.

All plants produce wax that helps their leaves repel water and shield the plant from insects and the elements, said Feakins, who has studied climate history of the Earth through the geochemistry of leaf wax in sediments.

For the study, the researchers grew test plots of winter wheat in two different areas of Texas. They found a trend where moisture stress caused greater leaf wax generation — an increase of nearly 50 per cent in one plot.

“We see a strong effect in the higher and drier location,” Feakins said. “We see the plants adapt to their environment.”

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A heat wave nicknamed “Lucifer” is scorching much of Europe this summer and climate change experts are suggesting these are a greater threat to human life in the short term than rising sea levels, also attributed to climate change.

Evidence continues to mount that these conditions could become the new normal.

A report published in the journal Weather puts 2015 and 2016 in the record books as being the warmest on record, with global temperatures reaching 1 C above pre-industrial levels.

Many still debate whether global warming is actually caused by humans but fewer deny that it’s occurring.

Another report out last week in the journal Nature said that it’s taking longer for regions affected by drought to fully recover. Meanwhile, the time in between droughts is getting shorter, an inverse correlation with potentially disastrous effects.

“If another drought arrives before trees and other plants have recovered from the last one, the ecosystem can reach a ‘tipping point’ where the plants’ ability to function normally is permanently affected,” Yuanyuan Fang, one of the study’s authors said in a release.

In light of this, it’s disturbing to read through the recently released Agricultural Institute of Canada report documenting serious gaps in Canada’s agricultural innovation system, arguably our best hope of preparing for an uncertain production climate.

The report highlights a steadily declining commitment to research by governments over the past three decades, despite the fact that for every dollar invested results in between $10 and $20 returned by way of productivity gains.

Private sector investment is waning as well, “due to low short-term returns on investment or insufficient incentives,” the report said.

Adoption of new technologies, such as precision agriculture, are hampered by the lack of a common analytics platform and poor rural broadband services. And there is a shortage of human capital, which is affecting research and extension capacity as well as on-farm production.

Governments must realize that soil and water will be key to the sector’s ability to adapt to a changing climate. Yet neither are likely to attract private investment.

Taxpayers are in it for the long haul and the sooner they step up the better it will be for all.

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