First, was the tornado outbreak over the United States a couple of weeks ago, and in particular, a F3 tornado that went through Michigan and actually crossed an ice-covered lake where it appears to pull up ice. If you haven’t seen the video, I would highly recommend taking a look.

The second item has been the record-shattering heat over a good chunk of the western and central U.S. I don’t have room to go into all the details, but a heat dome brought record temperatures for March to many locations with some of them seeing temperatures that would have broken April all-time records. With persistent arctic high pressure to our north, these extreme temperatures have been kept south of the border, but southern Minnesota did see a record high of 31 C.

Last on our list is an article that came out indicating that there is a good chance we will see the development of El Niño conditions across the Pacific later this year and it could be a very strong El Niño. We will look at that topic in April.

OK, now on to our main topic.

In our last article we looked at the composition of the atmosphere, breaking it down into a heterosphere and homosphere. Then we looked at the atmosphere from a temperature point of view and proceeded to break it down into four regions or layers — the thermosphere, mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere. We finished off by saying that one of these layers is responsible for most, if not all, of our weather. So, in this issue we will get back on track and extend our understanding of weather and the atmosphere by beginning our look at the atmosphere and surface energy balances.

To begin to understand how solar energy is spent as it reaches the Earth’s surface, and thus understand our surface energy budget, we need to look at the pathways in which solar energy can travel once it reaches the Earth’s surface.

Where the rays go

Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form of shortwave radiation. When this energy is turned into heat, it takes on the form of long-wave radiation. A good portion of both of these types of radiation passes through our atmosphere in the process known as transmission. When we are looking at shortwave radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, we call it insolation, and it is this insolation that is the driving force behind all of our weather.

Insolation is comprised of shortwave radiation that is transmitted directly to the ground, along with diffused or scattered radiation (indirect radiation). As shortwave radiation travels through our atmosphere some of it interacts with gas, dust, pollutants, water droplets and water vapour, changing the direction of the shortwave radiation — or scattering it. This scattering is what causes the sky to be blue during the day and why sunsets and sunrises take on a reddish hue.

The principle behind why we see these colours is known as Rayleigh scattering; named after the English physicist Lord Rayleigh, who came up this principle back in 1881. The principle relates wavelength to the size of the particles that are causing the scattering.

The general rule is: the shorter the wavelength, the greater the scattering; the longer the wavelength, the less the scattering.

Small gas molecules will scatter shorter wavelengths (remember with visible light, blues and violets have the shortest wavelengths, while oranges and reds have the longest wavelengths). So, since short waves are scattered the most and the molecules in our atmosphere scatter short waves, we end up having the lower atmosphere dominated by scattered blue waves.

At sunrise and sunset, the angle of the Sun is such that the insolation has to travel through much more atmosphere than during the day. The short blue wave lengths are still scattered, but now they encounter so much scattering only the longer orange and red wave lengths are left to reach our eyes — so we tend to see these colours.

Action and refraction

Another thing that happens to shortwave radiation as it enters the atmosphere is that it refracts. Refraction is the bending of light as it passes from one medium to the next. In this case, it is passing from the virtual vacuum of space to our dense atmosphere.

We have all seen examples of refraction. Rainbows are created when light passes through dense water drops causing the different wavelengths of light to refract at different rates. Mirages are another example of refraction. Most of us have experienced mirages on warm days along a highway when you stare down the highway and see what appears to be something floating above the road. In this case, it is the hot air above the highway that causes the light to be refracted.

One interesting note about refraction is that without it, the amount of daylight we receive would be about eight minutes less each day. When the sun sets or rises, the light refracts as it passes from space into our atmosphere. This refraction allows us to “see” the Sun when it is actually below the horizon. In the morning we see the sun rise four minutes before it actually moves above the horizon and at sunset we continue to see the Sun for four minutes after it has actually dropped below the horizon.

Next we will take a break from learning about the weather and take a look back at our extended winter to see how the numbers stacked up.

The post Why is the sky blue? appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

We will start off with a quick look back at the weather across the Prairies in 2025. Then we will look at the global temperature rankings last year and how they compared to other years. Finally, we will look ahead to see what the weather forecasters are predicting for the final few months of this winter and what spring might have in store for us.

Weather on the Prairies

Let’s look at the average yearly temperatures across the Prairies for the main reporting stations in each province, then compare those values to the long-term averages.

We can see that Calgary’s yearly mean temperature surpassed Winnipeg by more than one degree. That’s because Calgary’s yearly temperature in 2025 was very similar to the previous years, while Winnipeg came in nearly 1.5 C cooler in 2025.

Mean temperatures across the remainder of the Prairies varied from 3.3 C in Edmonton to a cool 2.0 C in Peace River.

Next, let’s compare these values to the long-term averages, where we can see Winnipeg ended up being the warmest location when compared to its average, with Calgary coming in a close second. The cold spot was Saskatoon, which was the only location reporting a yearly temperature that was below the long-term average.

Next up, yearly precipitation. Southern Manitoba was the wet spot in 2025, with three of the top four wettest locations occurring in that province. Peace River was by far the driest location with only 190 mm of precipitation recorded during the year. Let’s look at how these amounts compare to average.

From this data we can see that there were no ‘wet spots’ as all locations reported below average precipitation in 2025. The least-dry location compared to average was the region extending from Edmonton eastward to Saskatoon. Not surprisingly, Peace River was also the driest location compared to average, receiving less than 50 per cent of the average long-term precipitation.

So overall, 2025 saw near-average temperatures across the Prairies, with well-below average precipitation.

Global weather look

Moving on to global temperatures for 2025, all of the major reporting agencies — including NASA, NOAA, the European Copernicus program, Japan, the UK Met Office, and Berkeley Earth — ranked 2025 as either the third-warmest year on record or tied for second. The warmest year on record remains 2024, with 2023 and 2025 essentially in a statistical tie just behind it.

The mean global temperature for 2025 was approximately 1.44 C above the pre-industrial average. This compares to 1.52 C in 2024 and 1.47 C in 2023. Of particular note, the 11 warmest years on record have all occurred within the past 11 years.

Several other notable climate-related milestones occurred in 2025, including:

• the highest global ocean heat content on record,
• the second-warmest troposphere,
• record-high global sea levels and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and
• record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

A fifth point is also worth highlighting. While 2025 was slightly cooler on a global scale compared to the previous two years, that near-record warmth occurred during a La Niña year. Typically, La Niña conditions are associated with a modest reduction in global temperatures. However, while last year’s La Niña was only moderate in strength, its impact on global temperatures was virtually negligible.

The outlook for 2026 suggests a good chance of another top-five warmest year on record, although lingering La Niña influences will likely prevent it from setting a new record.

Farm weather ahead for 2026

Turning now to our final topic: late winter and early spring outlooks. As usual, we begin with the Old Farmer’s Almanac, which is calling for above-average temperatures for the remainder of winter, along with near- to slightly above-average precipitation. This outlook then transitions to near-average temperatures and precipitation during the spring months.

Looking next at the weather models, NOAA’s latest three-month outlook suggests below-average temperatures to finish winter and begin spring, accompanied by above-average precipitation. Conditions then trend toward near-average temperatures and precipitation later in the spring.

The CFS model is calling for above-average temperatures in February, below-average temperatures in March, and near-average conditions in April and May. Its precipitation outlook shows near- to above-average totals across all four months.

The European model forecasts near-average temperatures in February and March, warming to slightly above-average in April and May, with precipitation near- to slightly above-average throughout the period.

Finally, the Canadian CanSIPS model predicts well below-average temperatures from February through April, with May returning to near-average values. Precipitation in this model is near-average in February and March, then below-average in April and May.

As is often the case, these differing signals make it difficult to draw firm conclusions. Relying largely on experience and gut instinct, I am leaning toward near- to below-average temperatures in February and March, followed by a warming trend to near- or above-average values in April and May.

Precipitation, always the most challenging element to forecast, appears likely to be below average in February, near average in March, and above average in April and May.

As always, we now sit back and watch how it all unfolds.

The post What’s the weather for last half of winter 2025-2026? appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

That’s according to Alberta-based soil health advocate Kim Cornish, who spoke at the Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association’s regenerative agriculture conference in Brandon in November.

WHY IT MATTERS: On paper, ecosystem or carbon credits should offer a path for farmers to get paid for good management, but the reality of taking on-farm practices to the bank has been filled with questions and road bumps.

Cornish said she first became interested in soil health long before she knew anything about carbon protocols.

“It felt like there was a buzz or a hum,” she said, recounting the feeling of a biodiverse landscape.

“There seemed to be a lot of pollinators around.”

She noticed that same “alive” feeling on farms using adaptive grazing, holistic management and other regenerative practices.

Figuring out how to measure that kind of soil function in a way that could eventually translate into payments for farmers, though, has proven complicated.

Messy reality of carbon markets

Every industry and policy maker in North America seems to have carbon, greenhouse gases and climate change top of mind.

At first glance, that focus should be slam-dunk good news for regenerative farmers. Their management style, after all, also prioritizes getting more carbon (in the form of organic matter) out of the atmosphere and into the soil, where it can bolster productivity and their farm’s bottom line.

The concept of a carbon offset market, therefore, should make those farms hot commodities.

Early attempts to build a carbon-credit system around grazing, however, hit a wall when it came to codifying practices in a way that could be commodified. No two operations looked alike, and rigid protocols failed almost immediately.

“The only consistent answer I got was, ‘it depends,’” Cornish said.

“There was absolutely no consistency. Everybody had a different way.”

Producers told her the solution was simple: just measure the carbon. But scientists warned it was too expensive, too complicated and too variable to trust.

Overpromising on offsets

Existing efforts to capitalize on carbon credits have also run into caution-inducing obstacles.

Prairie farmers have occasionally been pitched on carbon-offset programs and contracts in recent years, with uneven results. Issues included struggles to verify credits or find buyers for farmer credits.

In one case in 2023, a number of farmers registered with one Manitoba program — which promised to use gathered farm data to backstop sellable carbon credits — reported they had not seen payments and were on the hook for subscription costs they had been led to believe would be covered by sale of their credits. The company later cited issues with selling those credits at the expected price.

Trust in offsets was also shaken globally in 2023 when an investigation found that many rainforest-based credits approved by a leading standard were largely worthless, prompting a sharp drop in demand.

Other companies, including big names like Nutrien and Corteva have also played with offset programs or pilots in recent years.

Policy challenges on carbon credits

Kathryn Harrison, a professor at the University of British Columbia whose field of expertise includes climate policy, said many agricultural offset programs face structural credibility problems.

One of the biggest is additionality, or the requirement that credited actions go beyond what would have happened anyway.

Fifteen years ago, Alberta allowed large emitters to purchase agricultural offsets to comply with emissions rules, while neighbouring Saskatchewan did not, said Harrison.

“What was striking is the rate of uptake of low and no-till agriculture was the same in both provinces,” she said.

“What that suggests is that those changes in agricultural practices were going to happen anyway.”

When something like that happens, those offsets aren’t considered “real,” Harrison added.

The other major challenge is permanence, especially as climate effects intensify.

Both buyers and sellers have strong financial incentives to be optimistic about potential carbon gains, Harrison said.

“The seller wants to say, ‘Of course I wouldn’t have done this,’ otherwise, ‘I’ll only do this if you pay me,’ and the buyer wants to say, ‘Of course this is additional,’ because they want to get credit for reducing their emissions at a lower cost,” she said.

“That is a worry for me.”

Digital soil mapping

Back in Alberta, Cornish connected with global experts in digital soil mapping, hoping it would offer some answers. It was, after all, the system used in Australia to quantify soil carbon at scale.

That partnership led to Alberta’s carbon map, built by combining satellite imagery, soil surveys and targeted sampling. The Regenerative Alberta Living Lab then expanded that work dramatically.

Today, the project includes 111 producers and more than 340,000 sampled acres, with cores taken a full metre deep and analyzed for everything from total carbon to microbial DNA.

But that approach has its own issues. The findings, for example, surprised many adaptive grazers who expected to show clear advantages over neighbouring cropland. Some didn’t, at least not on paper.

“As soil gets healthier, the bulk density drops,” Cornish said.

That’s a problem if the goal was to reward producers doing the right thing for their soils. That fluffy, sponge-like structure is great for water infiltration and increased resilience on the landscape — both big soil health wins touted by farmers adopting regenerative agriculture.

A new kind of ecological credit

Eventually, Cornish came to the conclusion that carbon density of the topsoil wasn’t enough to properly weigh overall soil health.

That’s where deeper indicators came in, including more stable aggregates, higher fungal diversity and carbon movement far below 60 centimetres, especially in adaptive multi-paddock grazing systems.

Cornish’s group used those findings to help redesign an entirely new ecological credit, meant to avoid the weaknesses of current carbon markets.

Like many regenerative certification programs emerging, the Alberta system revolves around outcomes, not prescribed practices. It locks data securely using blockchain, Cornish said, reduces verification costs with geo-referenced photos and soil maps and pays producers annually through an investment fund instead of one-time easements.

“You basically don’t have an easement. You can leave at any point, but you surrender that annual payment,” she said.

Preparing to expand into Manitoba

The project will now look at bringing in international buyers, tapping green bonds and stacking new credit types such as biodiversity and flood mitigation.

Cornish said Manitoba is high on the list, especially with tools like MFGA’s Aquanty water model ready to plug in. A Prairie-wide, grassland-conversion monitoring system is already in development to address leakage concerns.

Through all of it, her goal remains simple: reward good stewardship in a way that reflects what producers already know from the ground up.

“This was not about a scheme to just make money,” Cornish said. “It was a desire to see more people have more living land.”

Harrison, however, said the uncertainty inherent to offsets is amplified by the price incentives buyers and sellers have and is being amplified by climate change. She personally believes that offsets should not be allowed for regulatory compliance unless they involve permanent solutions like carbon capture.

“I would rather we find other ways to incentivize changes in agricultural practices, other than looking to big polluters and heavy emitters to pay for those,” she said.

The post Finally getting paid for sustainable farming? appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Ellis, 38, a fourth-generation farmer in Wawanesa, Manitoba, credits investments in pricey systems including minimum and zero-till farming which help protect soil; tile drainage, an underground system to prevent flooding; slow-release fertilizer pellets which are more effective, and advice from a professional agronomist on weedkillers.

“We are constantly making little tweaks,” he said. “That’s how we’re going to be able to keep fighting the changing climate.”

Across much of western Canada, farmers like Ellis have been turning out strikingly better crops despite hotter and drier conditions — far above what farmers in the region could have expected in better conditions years ago, according to Canadian government data, thanks in part to widespread embrace of climate adaptation strategies.

While greater yields in Canada and elsewhere are depressing global prices for grains, they are keeping many farmers in business.

Record harvests despite drought

Adaptation practices – which tend to be costly and require cutting edge technologies – have enabled many farmers to ride out a drought that began in 2020.

Earlier this month, the Canadian government announced record harvests of spring wheat and canola for 2025. And because most of the grains produced in Canada are shipped and consumed abroad, those gains have major implications for the rest of the world’s ability to feed itself affordably.

Australia, another large global grain exporter, has also reported rising crop yields despite drier conditions.

This combination of methods and technology is not just helping Canadian growers keep up with climate change, but stay ahead of its ravages, according to interviews with 25 farmers, scientists and agriculture industry leaders, and a review of more than a dozen academic papers.

Spring wheat, used to make high-quality bread, yielded 58.8 bushels per acre this year, according to the government data release. That’s a gain of 77 per cent from 30 years ago, based on a three-year average. Canola yields nearly doubled, reaching 44.7 bushels per acre, also based on a 1994-1996 average.

While most climate science paints a bleak picture for global food supply, with a study in Nature this year forecasting up to 40 per cent reduction in North America’s wheat harvest by 2100, the agricultural experts Reuters interviewed said that with climate adaptation strategies the Prairies can continue to produce bigger and bigger crops in the future.

“Back in the day, 30, 35 bushels an acre (for wheat) would have been a bumper crop,” said Rob Saik, a Canadian agronomist who has consulted with governments all over the world. “Now it’s an abject failure.”

A notoriously difficult region

Even before climate change brought more unpredictable and extreme weather, western Canada was a notoriously difficult region to farm.

The central Prairies, a land of green and golden short grasses and thin, scrubby brush, get only about half as much rainfall as Iowa, and have a much shorter growing season. Climate change has made it even harder. Environment and Climate Change Canada says the country is warming at double the global average and that extreme events have become more common. On the Prairies, annual snowfall, a key source of spring moisture, has declined and summer extremes of rain and drought have increased, with rain often coming in enormous torrents, or not at all.

“Extreme events, like floods, heatwaves, wildfires, and severe storms, are increasingly damaging to our economy, ecosystems and built environment,” the federal department said in a 2024 report.

Incremental gains, not miracles

Scientists and agronomists say Canada’s gains don’t come from a single, dramatic factor, but from steady, incremental progress with farming methods and inputs.

Many seeds now come stacked with insect, disease and weed resistance, thanks to conventional breeding as well as genetic modification. Fertilizer application is designed to minimize disturbance to the soil surface by being placed at the same time as the seed goes in.

Fungicides, weedkillers and nutrients allow crops to outcompete their natural enemies.

Some of the strategies recall pre-industrial practices, such as intercropping, growing multiple crops at the same time.

Experts also credit automation such as self-guiding tractors that apply fertilizer at different rates based on soil tests and satellite mapping.

One family’s adaptation evolution

The Mowbray family ventured into adaptive practices four decades ago with tile drainage, laying a small stretch of perforated pipe designed to take the water down into the soil rather than spread it across the surface.

Over the last 12 years, Scott Mowbray, 46, has expanded the drainage system to about 800 acres of his land.

Meanwhile, the Mowbrays gradually took up minimum till. By 2010, the 2,000-acre farm was entirely no-till, leaving the soil unplowed and with stubble standing as a moisture trap and a barrier against the wind that otherwise carries the topsoil away.

The innovations allow the Mowbrays to “pull off yields twice what we used to with half as much rain,” Mowbray said, producing “incredible” volumes of spring wheat, peas and rye.

Technology’s steep price tag

Much of what has allowed Canadian farmers to deal with climate change involves expensive and complex equipment. A smart combine costs upwards of $1 million. A high-speed-data-enabled tractor and seeding drill cost around $2 million.

Kip Eideberg, senior vice president of government and industry relations for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, which represents John Deere DE , Case New Holland CNH and other manufacturers, said precision systems have saved Canadian farmers nine per cent in herbicide and pesticides, six per cent in fuel, and four per cent in water use. That saves money for farmers operating on razor-thin margins, he said.

Most large-scale farmers have access to such technology in their tractors, combines, sprayers and management computers, Terry Griffin, a Kansas State University agricultural economist, said. But an older generation of farmers often doesn’t want to take on digital challenges, while younger farmers don’t have the money for machines or agronomic advice.

One obstacle to greater adoption is rural broadband access. Mowbray can’t count on being able to run a constant stream of data from his big farm machines. He can’t even call his farmhouse from his cellphone. His farm relies on two-way radios instead.

“It’s a simple thing but hugely important when you are in the field and might need a pick-up but can’t get a call through to the house,” he said.

Seed science – the invisible factor

Another equally important factor for farmers’ gains: breeding genetically superior crops that are hardier, drought-tolerant and produce bigger yields.

“We’re just starting down that path,” said Rick Mitzel, CEO of farmer-and-industry-funded mustard seed development organization Mustard 21. The company is developing drought-tolerant plants as an alternative to canola. The varieties “come out of the ground quicker, develop roots quicker, get leafing faster,” Mitzel told Reuters in an interview.

The farmer-controlled South East Research Farm in Redvers, Saskatchewan has been testing crops such as camelina, which is most likely to be planted in Canada for sustainable aviation fuel, that could offer farmers better yields and more resilience.

Executive director Lana Shaw doesn’t think climate change will happen without losses to the Canadian farm community. Some farmers will choose to not adapt and will simply retire. Some will adapt and fail. And some farmers will adapt and thrive.

“Under pressure,” she said, “they can adapt very fast.”

The post How Canada’s farmers are producing record crops despite droughts and floods appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

The report was full of predictions that came true, as well as a few surprises. This year’s report was the 16th annual.

Food prices were driven higher in 2025 by meat, said Sylvain Charlebois, the lead of Canada’s Food Price Report. Charlebois is the Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University. He leads Canada’s Food Price Report, but the report was developed by a collective of scholars.

“In fact, we claimed last year that meat would be driving food inflation, and we underestimated how significantly meat prices would go up. That was really the big story in 2025,” he said.

Meat prices to stay high

Unfortunately, the group expects meat prices will remain a huge factor for 2026.

“Beef is an issue, of course, it’s been an issue for a while now, and we don’t see how the situation will normalize itself before at least mid-year 2027,” he said. “Ranchers are leaving the industry. It’s difficult for ranchers across North America.”

The high prices of beef are encouraging people to change to other types of meat, like chicken.

“We’re short on chicken because of higher beef prices. The situation with beef is really a major issue for meat counter economics in general,” he said.

Chicken raised in Canada is under supply management.

“Supply shouldn’t be a problem, but it is a problem right now, because we’re importing more chicken from abroad. But I don’t think that is going to last. I do think the chicken industry will recover eventually. It’s kind of awkward to have supply management and import more chicken from the United States right now,” he said.

Fruit and vegetable inflation down

Vegetables and fruits had their inflation rates go down in 2025 compared to 2024.

“We were expecting increases to be in the positive, but the increases didn’t accelerate as much as we expected,” he said.

The group thought the “Buy Canadian” movement and the entire American boycott would put a lot of pressure on grocers to source products that are cheaper or the same price in America.

“But we were spared, and I think that’s due to the Canadian dollar. I think the Canadian dollar remained a non-issue. That came as a surprise, I would say,” said Charlebois.

Food affordability is a top concern for consumers. A quarter of Canadian households are considered food insecure, and nearly 2.2 million people visited food banks in Canada monthly this year.

Charlebois said there are numerous factors that affect food prices including geopolitics, global weather events, policy enactment, consumer behaviour and changes in retail models. Energy costs, climate change, interest rates, labour costs, the level of consolidation in a sector, and consumer demand, including whether consumers have more money or less money to spend on food.

“These are the things that impact food prices over time. But the bottom line is that not one node of the growth of the food supply chain totally controls food prices,” he said.

Trade wars affect food prices

In 2025, food prices were affected by the trade dispute between Canada and the United States and subsequent policy changes. Consumer-led movements also altered the economic retail landscape, impacting food price inflation.

Charlebois said farmers would say there’s a weak correlation between protein prices, and retail prices, and they’re correct to say so.

“So even though there is a weak correlation between the two, production does have an impact on how food is sourced to supply grocery stores in general,” he said.

When people spend more money at the grocery store, the farmer gets a bigger proportion of the farm bill. With retail, 13 to 15 per cent of the money spent at the grocery store goes back to the farmer compared to food service, where about four per cent to five percent goes back to the farmer from food service.

“Right now, there is a strong movement towards staying retail for consumers, because they’re trying to save as much money as possible, and they’re avoiding restaurants, so that could actually be a positive for farmers in general,” said Charlebois.

Temporary foreign workers

Temporary foreign workers are widely used along the food supply chain. In 2024, Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program brought in over 78,000 workers into the agricultural industry. The Canadian government is revisiting its immigration policy and has announced plans to reduce the share of temporary residents in Canada to less than five per cent of the population by 2027, to encourage more domestic labour and improve youth employment rates. Agriculture is exempt from this cap.

The current population of temporary foreign workers is at seven per cent.

There are concerns that shifts with temporary workers could lead to a major labour shortage in agriculture, disrupting the supply chain and costing businesses already operate on tight margins. The costs would be passed down to the consumer.

Charlebois said the research team is concerned about the temporary foreign worker problem.

“It’s a very important program to support our farmers,” he said. The information about temporary foreign workers was added to Canada’s Food Price Report, to send a clear signal to government that the temporary foreign worker program in agriculture should not be compromised, he said.

Food bill to rise “a lot”

The report also contains predictions for 2026.

“We’re expecting the average family (of four) to see their food bill increased by $1,000, so we’re expecting an increase of four to six per cent, so that’s a lot. I believe it’s the highest we’ve ever seen in 16 years. That’s going to be pushed by two categories; meat and the centre of the store. That’s pantry goods and dry goods. This is not going to help consumers,” he said.

“We think it’s going to push inflation higher,” he said.

The ongoing trade dispute with the United States will continue to affect prices next year. The inflationary aspects of the tariffs and counter-tariffs will continue in 2026 as trade tensions reshape the economic landscape. Canada is strengthening its relationships with other international trading partners to build resilience and competitiveness.

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The two governments are kicking in a total of $262.5 million, with the feds putting in $180 million and the balance coming from the province.

It’s going to take more than a bit of buzz and a flood of government money to get private sector investors to crack open their wallets and invest in what the federal government has dubbed “Port of Churchill Plus” though — it’s going to require answering a number of burning questions.

WHY IT MATTERS: Agricultural proponents of the Port of Churchill are excited by government support, but that doesn’t guarantee success.

Can it be operated year-round as a northern trade port as Prime Minister Mark Carney has enthused? How much volume can the adjoining Hudson’s Bay Railroad (HBR) accommodate? What can be done to minimize the plight of wildlife and the environment in general, particularly with plans to ship oil?

These questions and others were posed by Barry Prentice, a supply chain management professor with the University of Manitoba’s IH Jasper School of Business, at a recent “In Conversation” luncheon hosted by the McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics on Nov. 19.

Prentice offered an overview of some of the bright spots and challenges facing the Port of Churchill Plus.

Breaking the ice

Pivotal to the federal government’s ambitions for its five-year, $180 million railway and port upgrade investments is the question of whether Churchill can realistically serve year-round.

Even with the rapid decline of ice in the Hudson Strait, year-round service would still necessitate extensive use of costly ice-breaking labour and equipment.

Prentice pointed to the province’s $750,000 feasibility study to that end. He also referred to the interest of Montreal-based Fednav, a company billing itself as Canada’s biggest bulk shipper, in operating in the port year-round.

Building back reputation

In spite of their status as “the Prairies’ east coast,” the Port of Churchill/Hudson Bay corridor suffers from a “reputational deficit,” said Prentice.

“What do people think about Churchill when they hear about it? Only seasonal navigation comes up. Obviously it is cold, and although this is changing, (there’s a) somewhat wonky rail line that’s had its troubles over time.

“And then finally, a lonely grain elevator that hasn’t seen grain moving very much for some years now. So those are the kinds of ideas that people generally have.”

Climate opportunity

Today, the port and its route to the Atlantic is teeming with trade possibilities, but not for any reason a climate scientist would champion: the retreat of ice that, up until recently, assured Churchill could never be a world-class trade route.

For illustration, Prentice displayed photos comparing ice coverage around 30 years ago to today. The 1993 images showed that even in June the ice extending all the way to Newfoundland with very little open water to be found.

“Moving forward to Jan. 12, 2025, we see open water on the east coast of the Hudson Bay and, of course, pretty much open water up to the Hudson Strait.”

“What we’re seeing is an extension of the season.”

Regional growth

One measure of Churchill’s potential is the sheer number of people living in the Prairie provinces today compared to nearly a century ago. The 1931 national census (the year the port opened) said two million people lived on the Prairies, compared to 8.3 million today, according to the latest Statistics Canada numbers. And that means more demand.

“I expect to see growth continuing, maybe at the same pace,” said Prentice.

Not only is there more demand today, but there are more commodities to ship as well. The port was opened with the sole intent of shipping wheat, but now there’s a long list of goods the corridor could accommodate and some for which it is doing so already. There’s potash, lumber, minerals, petroleum products, sulfur, other grains and containerized freight.

“Containers would be interesting because this is the one product that would move in both directions,” Prentice said.

“… even if 10 per cent of the potash went through Churchill, that commodity alone would be enough to sustain the rail line.”

Barry Prentice
UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA

However, that doesn’t mean the Arctic Gateway Group, the owners and operators of the Port of Churchill, is losing sight of its origins in agriculture. In a recent presentation to Keystone Agriculture Producers (KAP), president and CEO Chris Avery said agricultural commodities are the port’s “core backbone.”

The diversification of the port’s shipping interests has been a welcome change for some.

In a Feb. 23, 2024, Manitoba Co-operator story, Churchill Mayor Michael Spence hailed the return of grain to the port, which had dropped substantially after the demise of the Canadian Wheat Board. But he also wanted the port to be less reliant on a single commodity than it was in the past.

“We are a port community, and one of the commodities that we all know has been historically shipped through the Port of Churchill is grain, but we will diversify; we will look at other products as well,” said Spence.

Environmental impact

A major concern of critics is the movement of oil along the route, which they say presents a threat to both marine and land-dwelling animals, not to mention the Indigenous residents. These and other environmental concerns must be addressed, said Prentice.

The community has a growing tourist trade, interested in paddling in Hudson’s Bay with beluga whales, or coming to view polar bears. They’ll naturally be concerned about the prospect of moving commodities like oil through the shipping route, Prentice said.

Faster shipping potential

The current route for potash from Saskatchewan to Brazil is long and convoluted, said Prentice. The Port of Churchill could change that.

“It’s taken west over the Rocky Mountains, down the coast of North America, through the Panama Canal, around South America and finally, to Brazil.

“Most of South America lies east of North America. So by the time you get through a downhill run to Churchill on the rail and load up, (when) you’re coming out of Churchill you’re almost straight south going to Brazil, so it’s a much shorter route and in theory should be much less expensive.”

Another factor is the amount of cargo required to maintain a railway today, said Prentice.

“For the length of the Hudson’s Bay Railway, it turned out you need about two million tonnes a year of traffic. Well, this railway has seldom seen more than half a million tonnes a year.

“But in the case of potash, we’re already shipping out 20 million tonnes. So even if 10 per cent of the potash went through Churchill, that commodity alone would be enough to sustain the rail line.”

At Avery’s KAP presentation, he stressed the need to increase the HBR’s car-carrying potential in anticipation of heavier traffic in terms of increased use and car weight.

“We need this upgrade to allow rail cars that carry a gross weight of 286,000 pounds per car. Our line allows cars that are weighted 268,000 pounds per car,” Avery said.
— With files from Don Norman

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At a panel titled Sustainability Disclosure in Canada: Overcoming the Headwinds, hosted by the Canadian Sustainability Standards Board (CSSB), speakers discussed the challenges and opportunities for Canadian businesses as international trading partners increasingly look for environmental, social and governance (ESG) transparency.

Eight out of Canada’s 10 biggest trading partners either have or will soon have mandatory disclosure rules — including those in the Indo-Pacific region, an emerging market for Canada’s agri-food sector, said Canadian Sustainability Standards Board chair Wendy Berman.

She called Canadian Sustainability Standards the “ticket to play” in a global market which may also be moving toward sustainability disclosure practices.

Canadian standards in the global market

Companies do not need to be perfect, only rigorous, Berman said.

“If you communicate that rigour, and you put sunlight around the main assumptions, which our standards tell you to, then that is what you’re communicating to the market.”

Berman said the standards board is helping Canadian companies address the market’s needs by looking at global reporting baselines and adding changes to reflect the uniqueness of the Canadian market.

“What we also have is a Canadian version of proportionality mechanisms,” she said. “What we’re saying to the market is ‘It’s okay, build capacity on these items and continue to do that so that you’re ready to enter the global market’.”

Ontario Securities Commission CEO Grant Vingoe said Canada will need to follow a global baseline if it wishes to continue on the path of market diversification. He said he hears many investors express frustration at a lack of a consistent global framework, forcing them to rely on private sources.

Disclosure fatigue

Canada is in a “pivotal moment for sustainability in Canada,” one “full of complexity and uncertainty and also real possibility,” said Elizabeth Dove, executive director of the UN Global Compact Network Canada.

“Over the last few years, Canadian companies have stepped up,” Dove said. “They’ve adopted climate action strategies. They’ve incorporated ESG into governance and risk. They’ve built systems to measure, disclose and manage sustainability performance. But let’s be honest, it hasn’t been easy.”

There has been fatigue around disclosure, and some businesses are now asking if the measures are necessary — particularly if they seem to hamper the company’s ambitions.

“We cannot allow ambition to be the casualty of uncertainty,” Dove said.

“Climate change is not waiting for regulatory clarity.”

Adoption of ESG will likely increase as the means of measuring climate risks improve, said Peter Routledge, superintendent of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

“Guess what? As you measure the risk more effectively, boards of directors and senior management teams will make really smart decisions about how to invest to counteract that risk,” Routledge said.

“That’s the beauty of market capitalism at work.”

“It is not a regulatory burden for the sake of increasing costs to in pursuit of some abstract virtue,” Routledge said. “That’s the last thing we’re interested in. What we’re interested in is creating management and risk measurement discipline to elevate and improve and sustain shareholder value.”

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Early results from a multi-year University of Manitoba study suggest it might be possible to shave nitrogen fertilizer rates by 10 per cent or more when paired with the right products.

WHY IT MATTERS: Fertilizer costs are high, while fertilizer efficiency is continually being pushed thanks to federal emission reduction targets. Nitrification inhibitors, including best practices and their efficacy, are one feature of the conversation.

The research is led by Mario Tenuta, research chair in 4R nutrient management at the U of M, in collaboration with Manitoba Agriculture’s Manasah Mkhabela. There are four sites across different growing regions of the province, including the Prairie East Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (PESAI) in Arborg, Roblin, Melita and Carberry.

The study was launched in 2023 in response to Ottawa’s target to cut nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer by 30 per cent by 2030.

The additional cost of inhibitors has been the complicating factor in that efficiency argument. Tenuta’s own earlier work suggests that the products don’t reliably boost yield on their own.

“They reduce nitrogen losses, but farmers are already applying enough N that having more in the system usually doesn’t help them,” he said.

For farmers to see a robust economic argument for inhibitors, there must be enough room to strategically trim nitrogen rates, without yield impact, to offset the extra cost of adoption. The thought is less about cutting nitrogen application so much as rebalancing overall soil nitrogen.

“At the Arborg site, nitrous oxide dropped 23 per cent when we used a nitrification inhibitor,” said Mkhabela during a July field day at PESAI this summer.

There were comparable reductions recorded at Melita and Carberry.

Yield appeared to be unaffected by the inhibitor in 2024, but results suggest the soil at that time still held significant nitrogen reserves. Wheat grown with 100 per cent of recommended N averaged 64 bushels to the acre (bu./ac.). At a 10-per-cent reduction plus inhibitor, yield held at 63 bu./ac. Even at 30 per cent below the recommended rate, yield only dropped to 57 bu./ac. Unsurprisingly, the plots without extra nitrogen fell behind on yield, at 37 bu./ac.

Lags in plant impact to applied nitrogen, however, encourages researchers to be a little careful in speculating how deeply farmers can cut.

A 10-per-cent rate reduction is low-risk, Tenuta noted, but much bigger cuts are more of a gamble.

Nitrogen stored in soil continues to feed the plants long after the last application of the nutrient. The more agressively nitrogen rates are reduced, the more quickly soil reserves will be depleted.

“If we drastically reduced nitrogen by 50 per cent, we probably wouldn’t see an effect in 2026,” he said. “But by 2028 we’d really see it.”

Similarly, the respectable yields Mkhabela observed with a 30 per cent nitrogen reduction will almost certainly diminish over time.

The longterm goal is to find that sweet spot: the lowest nitrogen rate that will consistently deliver good yields.

When asked where he thought that sweet spot would end up, Tenuta was conservative. Based on wider research, he guessed it would land in the neighbourhood of 10 to 15 per cent.

That might not be dramatic enough to get producers lining up to change long-held habits, he acknowledged.

“Nitrogen management is so ingrained in us,” he said. “We always think about going up, not down.”

Regardless of what the research says, producers will ultimately be the ones to pull the trigger on a management change.

“Is there benefit if you cut nitrogen 10 per cent and add an inhibitor? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, we’re dealing with slivers,” said Bond.

He also noted that environmental conditions can swing yield by 25 bu./ac. If farmers are asked to make decisions over pennies while weather can rewrite the whole outcome in a day, motivation tends to diminish.

“Mother Nature bats last when it comes to this type of stuff. That’s why producers are reluctant to cut nitrogen,” Bond said.

With a little more data, however, Bond noted the mental calculation on the issue could shift. That same nutrient-application-to-impact lag means that short trials tend to flatter aggressive rate reduction insights. For field studies like this, where changes unfold incrementally over years, longer trials are needed.

“Let’s go past three years to four, five, even 10, and start seeing what really changes,” Bond suggested.

The study’s long-term scope isn’t locked in yet, but Mkhabela told the PESAI tour crowd that the team is aiming for 10 years of funding.

Government has launched a number of funding streams meant to bolster fertilizer efficiency in the wake of their 2030 emission goals. Those include subsidies and incentives through the Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership (S-CAP) and other programs that may fund dual-inhibitor products, combining nitrification and urease inhibitors to offer additional benefits for growers.

“Urease inhibitors are like an insurance product to allow that nitrogen to get into the root zone and become more stable,” explained Bond. “The nitrification inhibitor is mainly impactful on greenhouse gases.”

Persistently tight margins could also change the outlook, noted Bond. When nitrogen was cheap, farmers just applied more urea to buffer against nitrogen losses. If prices rise and margins narrow further, the efficiency gains from nitrification inhibitors could start to look a lot more compelling.

Tenuta says it’s important not to over-promise with these products. Enhanced-efficiency fertilizers, including nitrification inhibitors, can play a role, but farmers need a clear-eyed view of what they can and can’t do.

“I don’t want good practices, and these products, to get a bad name,” he said. “If we can show farmers they can reduce losses and maintain profit, that keeps nutrient stewardship moving in the right direction. That’s the take-home message here.”

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The mean near-surface temperature in January-August 2025 was 1.42 C above the pre-industrial average, said the WMO report, released just ahead of the United Nations climate change summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, Nov. 10-21. The past 11 years, 2015 to 2025, will individually have been the eleven warmest years in the 176-year observational record, with the past three years being the three warmest years on record.

Why it matters: Rising global temperatures are influencing agricultural production and food systems

Concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases and ocean heat content, which both reached record levels in 2024, continued to rise in 2025, said the WMO. Arctic sea ice extent after the winter freeze was the lowest on record, and Antarctic sea ice extent tracked well below average throughout the year. The long-term sea level rise trend continued despite a small and temporary blip due to naturally occurring factors, said the report.

Weather and climate-related extreme events to August 2025 — ranging from devastating rainfall and flooding to brutal heat and wildfires — had cascading impacts on lives, livelihoods and food systems. This contributed to displacement across multiple regions, undermining sustainable development and economic progress.

“This unprecedented streak of high temperatures, combined with last year’s record increase in greenhouse gas levels, makes it clear that it will be virtually impossible to limit global warming to 1.5 C in the next few years without temporarily overshooting this target,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in a press release. However, she added that “the science is equally clear that it’s still entirely possible and essential to bring temperatures back down to 1.5 °C by the end of the century.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on nations to “act now, at great speed and scale, to make the overshoot as small, as short, and as safe as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 C before the end of the century.”

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When snow accumulates early across Siberia in September or October, it dramatically increases the surface albedo, reflecting more sunlight back into space.

The result is rapid cooling of the lower atmosphere, which strengthens a dome of cold, dense air over the Eurasian continent known as the Siberian High. This high-pressure area intensifies the temperature contrast between the frigid north and the still-mild mid-latitudes, sharpening what is know as the baroclinic zone where large-scale atmospheric waves form and propagate.

The movement of energy through the atmosphere impacts the generation of these planetary (also known as Rossby) waves. These are the massive undulations that dominate the jet stream, creating what we call upper-level ridges and troughs. These waves act as a communication system between the troposphere (the lower atmosphere where weather occurs) and the stratosphere above.

As theses waves amplify over Eurasia, they can propagate upward into the stratosphere in late autumn. There, they interact with the stratospheric polar vortex, a vast, fast-spinning region of cold air encircling the Arctic at high altitudes that has been making the news almost every time we get a severe outbreak of cold air. When these upward-moving waves become strong, they deposit momentum and heat into the stratosphere, slowing and displacing the vortex. The result is a weaker, warmer, and often off-center polar vortex.

Polar vortex

A disrupted vortex often leads to higher surface pressures over the polar region and weaker westerly winds at mid-latitudes. This state corresponds to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) — atmospheric patterns that profoundly shape winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere.

When the AO turns negative, the jet stream becomes wavier and shifts southward. Instead of locking cold air in the Arctic, it allows frigid air masses to plunge southward. In North America, this typically brings colder and often snowier conditions to central and eastern regions, while the west may experience milder and drier weather.

The timing of these events follows a rough sequence: early-season snow in October, wave amplification in November, stratospheric weakening in December, and surface impacts by January or February. Thus, what happens over Siberia in autumn can influence the probability of cold snaps months later across North America.

Just like with El Niño or La Niña this relationship is probabilistic, not deterministic — it can increase the chance of a colder winter, in other words, but does not guarantee it.

Many other climate drivers can either amplify, neutralize, or even override the snow signal. So far this year, Siberian snow cover advanced early but slowed in recent weeks, so exactly how much of a factor it will be is still uncertain.

Despite these uncertainties, the Siberian snow connection offers a fascinating example of how interconnected Earth’s climate system truly is. A few weeks of early snowfall in central Asia can set in motion atmospheric waves that travel across continents and through layers of the atmosphere, influencing winter patterns half a world away.

This is one region why the idea of controlling the weather to any large degree is impossible.

Ocean weather impacts

Next up on our list of factors is an anomalously warm northern Pacific Ocean. The northern Pacific is a key energy reservoir for the atmosphere. When it runs warmer than normal, the ocean releases greater amounts of heat and moisture into the air above it. This excess energy thickens and warms the lower atmosphere, building a dome of high pressure that alters normal circulation patterns.

The first major atmospheric feature to be impacted is the Aleutian Low, a semi-permanent low-pressure system near Alaska. Warmer water tends to weaken or displace this low northward and eastward. That change alone can dramatically shift the path of the Pacific jet stream.

A persistent area of warm water in the northern Pacific often gives rise to a ridge of high pressure over western North America. Meteorologists sometimes call this the “North Pacific ridge” or “Gulf of Alaska block.” The ridge acts like an atmospheric wall: it deflects storms northward toward Alaska and the Arctic, while downstream, across central and eastern North America, the jet stream dips southward into a broad trough.

This ridge-trough pairing sets up one of the most recognizable winter patterns in the hemisphere. Western North America experiences mild, dry conditions, often with reduced mountain snowpack and extended drought periods. Alaska frequently sees exceptionally warm, wet winters with rain replacing snow in coastal areas and slower sea ice growth. While central and eastern North America fall under the influence of repeated Arctic outbreaks as cold air slides southward beneath the trough.

The influence of northern Pacific warmth often leads to western Canada seeing mild winter temperatures and less storm activity which means a drier winter with low snow cover. The eastern half of the Prairies often see periodic shifts between warm and cold periods as the western ridge builds and weakens which in turns allows the trough over the eastern half of North America to build and weaken. The repeated back and forth between warm and cold airmass can lead to plenty of storm systems resulting in higher-than-average snow cover.

As you can see, there’s a lot of variables that can affect a long-range winter forcast, with factors pulling it back-and-forth like a tug-of-war, sending conflicting signals.

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