Terry Reilly, an independent analyst, said soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade is the commodity most closely following the lead of crude oil, with the latter almost touching US$120 per barrel earlier this week. The May soyoil contract closed at 67.16 U.S. cents per pound on March 11, up 3.57 cents or 5.6 per cent from the week before.

While corn, soybean and wheat prices won’t be as closely tied to crude oil as soyoil, Reilly said their movement will still be determined elsewhere.

“The outside markets will continue to drive the markets for at least until when the conflict starts to wind down,” he added. “Fertilizer is going to be heavily impacted and it will drive up the costs for farmers across the globe. It’s shifting some ideas and we could see less acres go into the ground this spring across North America.”

There was also speculation the United States Environmental Protection Agency may submit its 2026 renewal fuel standard later this week, which could increase the need for corn (ethanol) and soybeans (biodiesel). However, Reilly doesn’t anticipate any increased demand.

“Currently, the prices of some of the feed stocks like canola oil going to California or (used cooking oil) and tallow, their prices are at a discount to soybean oil,” he explained. “I don’t see any greater demand for alternative fuel sources, but no doubt we’ll probably be blending as much ethanol as we can.”

Reilly added he was surprised to see the U.S. Department of Agriculture trim projected soyoil use for biofuel by 800 million pounds at 14 billion in its monthly supply/demand estimates released on March 10. But there were little changes to projected U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks. While Reilly thought corn and soybean exports were “on the low side”, he believes the trade is more focused on new crop plantings.

“We still have several months to go until the end of the regular crop year,” Reilly said. “But either way, U.S. soybean stocks are expected to be pretty tight at the end of the season as China continues to buy U.S. beans.”

The war in Iran will continue to leave the trade guessing and keep prices higher, Reilly stated, adding that some analysts believe crude oil could surpass US$150/barrel. However, prices should stabilize once the war ends.

“I think after things start to cool down a little bit, I’d look for prices to get lower,” he said.

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At its February annual agriculture outlook forum, the United States Department of Agriculture predicted corn plantings in the country would be down by four million acres this year while soybeans would be up by 3.8 million acres. Corn futures dropped sharply in late January on confirmation of the large 2025 crop but have subsequently trended steadily higher with the expectations for a smaller acreage base in 2026 contributing to the gains.

“We’ve seen a gradual steady increase in corn prices since the very bearish January crop report … it’s just grinding it’s way higher,” said Tom Lilja, of Progressive Ag in Fargo, North Dakota.

The next big report will be the USDA’s planting intentions estimates at the end of March. If corn area is down by four million acres on the year, Lilja expects the corn market could have more room to the upside — at least in the new crop contracts. However, he added that “we know we’re sitting on a good chunk of old crop corn.”

For soybeans, in addition to the likelihood of increased U.S. acres, Lilja said the large Brazilian crop created “a strong headwind on the market.”

Iran war

The escalating war in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S. sent crude oil and vegetable oil markets climbing higher, but the reaction so far has been more muted in the grain markets. Lilja was surprised by the reaction in wheat especially, as it had rallied sharply in tandem with oil four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine.

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Soybeans

One of those unknowns is the additional eight million tonnes of United States soybeans China is to buy, President Donald Trump said recently. It’s believed that China fulfilled its promise to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans and Trump claimed on social media they were going to buy more.

“The problem is China hasn’t confirmed nor denied any of this,” Lusk said.

He also pointed out the U.S. 45Z biofuel tax credit and the biofuel mandate, could be favourable or unfavourable to soybeans depending on the choices to be made by the Trump administration.

A sharp increase in Indonesia importing U.S soymeal would be very supportive. Lusk said that country is to buy up 3.8 million tonnes of U.S. soymeal compared to its current imports of 260,000 tonnes.

Corn and Wheat

Another issue Lusk pointed out is the U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook Forum forecasting 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 1.84 billion bushels. That would be a drop from 2.13 billion/bu. the USDA projected for 2025/26.

“They’re assuming good weather. You don’t assume that,” Lusk said, but acknowledged the weather over the last few years has been quite good for U.S. crops.

For wheat, Lusk said the weather threats in Eastern Europe and in parts of the U.S. have dissipated and that should limit prices from going much higher.

Tariffs

He mentioned the reduction or elimination of tariffs would also help U.S. commodity prices.

Recently, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Trump exceeded his authority to impose many of his levies. However, the president said he will enact new 15 per cent surcharges using different legislation.

Iran

Lusk warned that any U.S. attack on Iran or a regime change in that Middle East country would increase crude oil prices.

“Higher crude prices are to support higher grain prices,” he said. “You don’t want to be caught short.”

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• Solid crush data released Tuesday remained supportive for soyoil, helping underpin beans. Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 221.564 million bushels of soybeans in the United States in January, which was a record for the month and up 10.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House later this week.
• Rainfall in southern Brazil helped improve crop conditions, reducing concerns over hot and dry weather in the area. Meanwhile, the harvest was progressing in central and northern growing regions.
• Optimism over increased sales to China remained supportive for values, although the Lunar New Year holiday was limiting business.

WHEAT futures corrected higher amid ideas recent losses were overdone.

• Concerns over cold temperatures damaging winter wheat in parts of Ukraine were supportive.
• Warmer weather and dryness concerns in parts of the U.S. Plains were also supportive.

CORN futures were up in sympathy with wheat, with positioning ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Ag Outlook Forum a feature.

• The USDA will release its first projections for 2026/27 supply and demand as part of the Ag Outlook Forum, with early trade estimates predicting a reduction in corn acreage and increases in soybean area.

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Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

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Wheat rose on what appeared to be fund-driven short-covering, while corn futures sagged in choppy trade.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures closed up 1-1/2 cents at $11.24 per bushel after reaching $11.28-1/4, the contract’s highest since February 6.

CBOT March wheat gained nine cents to close at $5.37-1/4 a bushel while March corn settled down 1-1/4 cent at $4.27-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans rallied as traders gauged the likelihood of top global soy buyer China booking more U.S. soybeans.

U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that China had increased its target for U.S. soybean purchases, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a monthly world crop report on Tuesday said, “China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans.”

Brazil, the world’s biggest soy producer and exporter, has begun harvesting a record-large soybean crop that is expected to dominate the global export market in the coming months. But the prospect of China buying additional U.S. soy cargoes under a trade truce has buoyed the futures market.

“The big unknown with China continues to be the big factor. We are finding that futures are just not able to set back very much in this environment,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago.

Wheat climbed despite a lack of news. Commodity funds hold a hefty net short position in CBOT wheat futures, leaving the market vulnerable to bouts of short-covering.

Corn futures drifted lower, losing to soybeans and wheat on inter-market spreads. The market shrugged off confirmation from the USDA of private sales of 230,560 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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“February isn’t really known for rallies in the grain markets,” said analyst Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago, adding that “there’s not much going on.” He expected the markets may hold rangebound in the short-term.

Corn

In its February report the USDA raised its call for U.S. corn exports in 2025/26 by 100 million bushels from January to 3.3 billion bushels, and lowered its carryout forecast by the same amount.

While the record-large export demand was a supportive price influence, “there’s just too much corn out there right now,” said Lusk. He added that there are still questions over the size of the 2025 corn harvest after the USDA’s surprising upward revisions to harvested area and yields in January.

Soybeans

The USDA left its domestic numbers unchanged from January in the February report, despite recent talk from the White House that China would increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans this year to 20 million tonnes.

While increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans should be supportive, “there’s a bumper crop coming out of Brazil,” said Lusk. If China is buying more U.S. soybeans, the Brazilian beans will just move elsewhere in the world resulting in a “zero sum game,” he added.

The USDA will hold its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Feb. 19-20, with the event providing the agency’s first look at 2026 acreage ideas. Given the current price relationship between soybeans and corn, Lusk expected to see increased soybean planting intentions and a reduction in corn on the year.

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The expanding harvest of a record-large Brazilian soybean crop added to bearish sentiment, analysts said.

Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures SH26 settled down 4-1/2 cents at $11.10-3/4 per bushel, retreating from Friday’s high of $11.37-3/4, the contract’s highest level since early December.

But CBOT soyoil futures bucked the lower trend, rising more than two per cent after the U.S. and India released an interim framework for a trade deal that could lower barriers to Indian imports of U.S. soyoil.

Corn and wheat futures drifted lower amid a lack of supportive news. CBOT March corn CH26 ended down 1-1/2 cents at $4.28-3/4 a bushel and March wheat WH26 finished down 1 cent at $5.28-3/4 a bushel.

Last week’s surge in soybean futures, tied to hopes for fresh purchases by China, unleashed a wave of cash soybean sales by U.S. farmers that helped knock futures off their highs by Friday. Soybeans had risen last week after Trump said China was considering raising U.S. soybean purchases to 20 million metric tons for the current season. But dealers remain skeptical as higher prices make it uneconomical for China to purchase U.S. beans.

The focus by Monday appeared to shift back to Brazil, the world’s top soy supplier, where growers had harvested 16 per cent of the soybean crop as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said. That was just above the 15 per cent level reported a year earlier.

“A lot of this has to do with the Brazilian harvest getting into full tilt,” said Tom Fritz, a partner with Chicago-based EFG Group.

Ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly world supply-demand report on Tuesday, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expected the agency to raise its estimate of Brazil’s soybean harvest to 179.4 million metric tons, from its previous forecast of 178 million, already an all-time high.

Brazilian crop supply agency Conab is scheduled to release its own production estimates on Thursday.

Traders shrugged off news from the USDA on Monday confirming private sales of 264,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China.

“U.S.-China soybean trade appears to be running out of steam with that growing supply pressure out of South America ever-present,” said Sean Hickey, an analyst at Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.

-Additional reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Michael Hogan in Hamburg

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Corn and wheat chopped up and down, though ample global supply continued to curb grain prices while traders turned their attention to a U.S. Department of Agriculture world crop report due Tuesday.

The most-active CBOT soybean Sv1 contract settled 3 cents higher at $11.15-1/4 a bushel.

Soybeans hit a two-month high on Wednesday after Trump posted that China was hiking purchases and “lifting the soybean count to 20 million tons” for the current season.

That implied that China could buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025/26 on top of about 12 million tons already booked since a trade truce was reached in late October.

“The market is assuming that China will buy something,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, though he noted that many industry players are skeptical that Trump’s comments will prove accurate.

The remarks surprised traders, who expected China to rely heavily on Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026.

Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, is expected to produce 181.6 million metric tons in 2025/26, consultancy firm StoneX said on Monday, raising its outlook for the harvest that is in progress.

Meanwhile, CBOT corn Cv1 closed 4-3/4 cents lower to $4.30-1/4 per bushel. CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 5-1/2 cents lower at $5.29-3/4 per bushel.

Traders are monitoring dry weather in Argentina, though a massive U.S. harvest last year and favorable planting conditions for Brazil’s second corn crop tempered concerns.

In wheat, traders have been monitoring severe cold in the U.S.and in Russian production belts, but snow cover is expected to limit potential crop losses. Nearly all Russian crops were in normal condition as of Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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Corn and wheat ticked up with spillover support from soybeans, though a firmer dollar and easing weather concerns capped the cereal markets.

Soybeans rallied on Wednesday after Trump said China was “lifting the soybean count to 20 million tons for the current season,” suggesting China could buy 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025/26 on top of approximately 12 million tons already booked since the trade truce in late October.

“Honestly, it’s the only story right now,” said Jason Ward, managing director of Northstar Commodity.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 settled 20 cents higher at $11.12-1/4 a bushel.

The news surprised traders who have expected China to focus on buying cheaper Brazilian beans in the coming months as Brazil’s new crop comes onto the market.

Many traders are optimistic that China will fulfill its verbal commitment to purchase additional bushels, which in addition to demand from other countries and soy processing plants, would drastically change the U.S. soybean supply.

Some market players, however, have remained cautious given the potential strain on U.S. supply from the new export volume cited by Trump.

Such additional purchases may represent a political gesture by Beijing, despite higher costs, ahead of a planned visit by Trump to China in April, according to analysts.

CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 8-1/2 cents higher at $5.35-1/4 a bushel while corn Cv1 closed 5-1/2 cents higher at $5.35 per bushel.

Nearly all Russian crops were in normal condition as of February 5, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev was quoted as saying on Thursday.

Wheat traders have been monitoring severe cold in U.S., Russian and Ukrainian production belts, but snow cover is expected to limit potential crop losses.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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