Reuters reported as such on Feb. 10, noting that deep staff cuts to the department made by the Trump administration have been seen as a main culprit. Reuters said there was growing skepticism in the USDA’s corn acres, which has concerned those who depend on the ups and downs of corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn acres and distrust

The crux of the matter is the USDA’s corn estimates from June 2025 compared to those this January. Last month, the department finalized 2025/26 corn acres at 98.8 million planted and 91.3 million harvested. Those numbers are up 8.7 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, from 2024/25.

In June, the USDA estimated 2025/26 planted corn acres at 95.3 million. Harvested acres were projected to be 87.4 million.

It’s a given that adjustments will be made over time, but the scope of the adjustment has the corn industry worried about the quality of the data from the USDA. After all, the USDA is widely considered to be among the best sources for such information, be it from farmer surveys or model-based analysis. In terms of accuracy, the USDA has typically been considered a gold standard.

Lack of willing farmer participation in the USDA surveys is part of the problem. That’s compounded by fewer staff interpreting and processing that data.

There are always going to be skeptics when it comes to such an information gathering process. It’s the level of that distrust that can become disturbing.

Canola harvest

As a reporter, I’ve often compared the numbers coming from Statistics Canada (StatCan) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to what the USDA says about Canada.

I marked with some amazement how close StatCan and the USDA came to estimating the 2025/26 Canadian canola harvest. StatCan pegged it at 21.80 million tonnes, while the USDA projected 22 million. That told me that StatCan was likely pretty close to the amount of canola.

Unfortunately, the USDA’s reports on other countries have also come under scrutiny — again, because there are far fewer staff to oversee gathering that information.

The USDA now is looking inward. It’s trying to figure out what happened with its corn numbers and how to rebuild the credibility it’s lost.

Let’s hope effective solutions are put in place that keep this treasure trove of information coming.

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There’s little doubt among market participants that this year’s canola harvest exceeded the 20.03 million tonnes Statistics Canada estimated in September. We’ll get a good idea as to how much canola came off the fields come Dec. 4, when StatCan issues its next production report.

Nevertheless, there’s a lot of canola to be had across the Prairies. But without China buying canola from Canada, the impetus for farmers to sell it simply isn’t there. Not long ago the idea was for growers to get rid their canola on the idea a trade deal between Canada and China won’t come in 2025. That an agreement between Ottawa and Beijing is more likely to be reached sometime in 2026.

However, even without China there’s still sufficient demand for canola that the commercial buyers are wanting it, so prices have climbed.

Although the Canadian government said recently there was some progress in trade talks with China, there’s been nothing more on that front. In turn, those stiff tariffs China imposed on Canadian canola seed, oil and meal imports will continue to loom over the market until some deal is reached.

Canadian Grain Commission data shows 4.87 million tonnes have been delivered by farmers so far in 2025/26, 1.12 million tonnes less of the oilseed than they did a year ago. That decline is now underpinning demand, as the commercials are trying to entice reluctant sellers.

Just where do canola futures go in the weeks to come? That remains in the air. Rallies always come to an end; it’s just a matter of having an idea as to when.

Canola could go higher, but likely fresh news will be needed to give the trade something more to bite on. Should the market fall back, then canola could stay rangebound with the January contract finding support at $600/tonne.

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Citing favourable price expectations for canola compared to wheat and barley, the USDA’s Australian attaché was forecasting an 8.5 per cent increase in seeded canola area in the country in 2024/25, with production up by 14 per cent at 6.5 million tonnes. If realized, that would be Australia’s third-largest canola crop on record. Canola exports from Australia are forecast at 5.1 million tonnes, which would be up by 16 per cent on the year.

Australian farmers are just starting to seed their next canola crop, with moisture conditions generally in better shape than they were a year ago.

Meanwhile, European farmers reduced rapeseed plantings in 2024/25 according to the Vienna-based attaché, with the EU ban on the use of neonicotinoids and declining availability of other plant protection products contributing to the smaller plantings. Profitability compared to other planting options in the EU was also said to be behind the 4.8 per cent reduction in area.

Rapeseed production in the EU is forecast to be down by 4.4 per cent in 2024/25, at 18.8 million tonnes. As a result, “the decline in production will need to be offset by imports, mainly from Ukraine and Australia, the EU’s traditional suppliers,” said the attaché. However, several member states have bans on imports of Ukrainian agricultural commodities in place, including rapeseed.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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USDA raised its forecast for European rapeseed imports during the 2022-23 marketing year by 550,000 tonnes, to 6.525 million tonnes, in its latest Oilseeds report released Wednesday, citing “increased exports from Ukraine and Australia.”

The agency raised its forecast for Australian exports to 6.25 million tonnes, from 5.7 million in the February report, while increasing the Ukraine export forecast by 300,000 tonnes, to 2.1 million.

Canadian canola production for 2022-23 was left unchanged at 19 million tonnes by USDA, which compares with Statistics Canada’s estimate of 18.174 million tonnes.

USDA forecasts Canadian canola exports during the marketing year at 8.4 million tonnes, which would be down slightly from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s projection of 8.6 million.

Meanwhile, USDA is working with a domestic usage number for Canadian canola of 10.45 million tonnes, which would be nearly a million tonnes above AAFC’s 9.5 million-tonne estimate.

Total Canadian canola ending stocks for 2022-23 are forecast at 1.15 million tonnes by USDA, which compares with the AAFC estimate of 800,000 tonnes. World canola carryout was estimated at 6.672 million tonnes by the U.S. agency, which would be up from the February estimate of 6.163 million tonnes and the year-ago level of 4.211 million tonnes.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor and analyst for MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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A new production report from Statistics Canada, due out Monday (Aug. 30), could set the stage for a break one way or the other, with the nearby market focus on harvest conditions.

Drought conditions through the growing season cut into yields, with pre-report expectations calling for canola production well below the 18.7 million tonnes grown in 2020.

However, with industry estimates coming in anywhere from 11.5 million to 16 million tonnes, any surprises in the data have the potential to spark a move in the futures.

“Guys are holding their cards tight,” said a Winnipeg-based trader, adding he was hearing mixed reports from clients of great yields in some spots that got moisture — but even worse-than-expected yields in others.

As a result, putting a number on the size of the crop would be difficult until the harvest is complete.

From a chart standpoint, the November contract finds itself in a range between $850 and $940 per tonne.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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For the world’s top two canola exporters, the attachés forecast production in Canada to remain steady and project strong gains for Australia.

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) published the reports Monday, a few days ahead of the scheduled release of the department’s April world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE).

The USDA attaché in Canada noted several issues with its canola industry, particularly last fall’s poor weather conditions. The attaché, Erin Danielson, noted more than two per cent of Canada’s canola remained in the fields to overwinter and was uncertain as to how much would be harvested in the spring.

Also, the late-harvested canola contained high moisture of 12 to 15 per cent, which posed increased risk for the crop’s deterioration in the bin.

Although Canada’s canola exports to China dropped sharply during the 2019-20 marketing year, Danielson said significant increases in exports to the European Union, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates helped offset the drop of about 70 per cent in exports to China.

Also, Danielson wrote, rail blockades this year, along with the strike at Canadian National Railway in November, a rockslide across a CN track in British Columbia and cold weather combined to delay canola shipments to the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert. The current COVID-19 pandemic has added another major problem.

The attaché also noted the strong uptick in Canada’s canola crush.

Danielson projected nearly 8.5 million hectares (about 21 million acres) are likely to be planted to canola by Canadian farmers in 2020-21, with 8.4 million to be harvested. Production was forecast at 19 million tonnes and the attaché expects exports to be nine million tonnes. Domestic use is to consume 9.7 million tonnes, with a carryover of more than 3.2 million.

Increase expected for Australia

After years of drought, Australia received heavy rains following devastating wildfires throughout the country. Those rains, particularly in the states of New South Wales and Western Australia, are to push canola production upward by 800,000 tonnes in 2020-21, according to USDA’s attachés Zeljko Biki and Levin Flake.

If their projections hold, Australia would produce about 3.1 million tonnes of canola in the coming marketing year. Although an improvement, it would still be short of the 10-year average of almost 3.3 million tonnes of canola.

Another factor fueling the increase is improved canola prices in Australia. The attachés noted canola was priced about A$80 higher per tonne compared to this time last year.

However, they point to the years of drought that curtailed farm incomes, which could mean Australian farmers may not have sufficient resources for the higher input costs associated with canola compared to wheat and barley.

Biki and Flake predicted Australia’s canola exports to improve by 600,000 tonnes in 2020-21, to about 2.2 million tonnes. Also, they forecast domestic consumption to remain steady at 800,000 tonnes.

The attachés put the area to be harvested in the coming marketing year at more than 2.3 million hectares (5.6 million acres). They estimated the carryover to be 481,000 tonnes.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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AAFC’s August report kept the canola production estimate at July’s 18.575 million tonnes.

“Maybe we’ll see if the production numbers are close, who knows?” MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett said of Statistics Canada’s report, due out Aug. 28.

Burnett revised his estimate from 17.85 million tonnes to 18.025 million.

One wildcard could come into play very soon: frost. Burnett has forecast single-digit low temperatures for parts of the Prairies for next week, raising the possibility.

Should that happen within the next 10 days, he said, AAFC’s and Statistics Canada’s numbers will change dramatically.

“We do have parts of the Prairies with extremely good conditions, just the crop is late,” Burnett said.

Other estimates for next week include 19.6 million tonnes from MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville; 20.021 million, courtesy of FarmLink; and 19.3 million from Terry Reilly of Futures International.

Even though it has been widely accepted the 2019 canola crop will be less than the 20.343 million tonnes last year, expectations are for a bountiful harvest.

The canola harvest has yet to begin in earnest, but it’s underway in the Winnipeg area, said trader and farmer Bill Craddock.

The local crop does look very good, which could raise hopes of a strong harvest Prairie-wide.

— Reporting for MarketsFarm by Glen Hallick, with files from Marlo Glass.

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Wheat ending stocks were also raised in the report, while adjustments to the canola tables led a slight reduction to the still record-large carryout forecast.

Total Canadian wheat production for 2019-20 is now forecast at 32.5 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 32 million and the year-ago level of 31.769 million. If realized, that would mark the second-largest Canadian wheat crop on record.

Of the total, durum production for 2019-20 was raised to 5.1 million tonnes, from five million in July. That compares with the 5.745 million tonnes grown the previous year.

Total Canadian wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 were raised to 5.5 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 5.1 million and the 2018-19 carryout of an estimated 5.2 million.

AAFC left its canola production estimate for 2019-20 unchanged at 18.575 million tonnes, but raised its old–crop export forecast slightly. As a result, ending stocks for both 2018-19 and 2019-20 were tightened to 3.7 million and 3.775 million tonnes respectively. Both would still be record large, comparing to the previous record of 3.008 million set in 2013-14.

Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based production estimates for the 2019-20 crop year on Wednesday next week (Aug. 28).

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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In a survey compiled in the latter days of July and released Friday, Statistics Canada pegged canola production for 2018-19 at 19.2 million tonnes, which was lower than what most traders were expecting. It would also be down sharply from last year’s total of 21.3 million tonnes.

“It’s certainly on the light side,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada, which is owned by Glacier FarmMedia. “But with harvest just getting underway, I suspect we will see a bigger number in subsequent reports.”

The next report traders will be watching for is a computer-based model, also compiled by Statistics Canada, due out Sept. 19.

A trader in Winnipeg agreed yield numbers could rise in that report, adding there are noticeable differences between crop quality in the southern Prairies and the north.

“Yields in the south are coming in below expectations; as you move further north they’re higher,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Markets.

The estimate for Canadian all-wheat production came in at 28.9 million tonnes, which was on the lower side of trade guesses.

Jubinville suspects that number could also grow. “Spring wheat could be one million or two million tonnes higher,” he said.

Estimates for durum came in around five million tonnes, slightly higher than last year’s production.

As expected, the forecast for pulse production was down significantly from last year. Pea production was pegged at 3.6 million tonnes while lentils were 2.2 million tonnes.

According to Bruce Burnett of Glacier Farm Media, the lower forecast could help the supply and demand balance sheets for both crops.

Barley production is expected to be higher. According to Statistics Canada, production this year will hit just under eight million tonnes.

“It’s suggestive of a tight barley supply situation that is evolving for new crop marketing year,” said Jubinville.

In the near term, harvest pressure is expected to keep upward price action muted, but once the crop is in the bin today’s forecast should be supportive for prices in general.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s crop production estimates for 2018-19, in millions of tonnes. Pre-report estimates are included for comparison.

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However, a hot and mostly dry summer on the Prairies has left many growers guessing about the size and quality of their crops.

Some traders say it is difficult to know how much the sizzling hot temperatures in August may have cooked the plants, but others say damage was definitely done.

“I don’t think people appreciate how much the crop has been hit,” said Bill Craddock, a trader who also farms near Winnipeg. He expected total canola production would be much lower than expected.

Crops would very significantly from field to field, he said — a point on which others agreed.

“The yields may be lower,” said Bruce Burnett of MarketsFarm, adding the survey by Statistics Canada was carried out when canola was podding. The survey was conducted at the end of July.

Another question mark involves durum. Much of the crop is traditionally grown in central and southern Saskatchewan where summer heat was especially fierce.

“Durum is a tough one,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial. “We haven’t heard a lot but most of it is grown in the drier areas so I wouldn’t be surprised if it came in lower.”

The Prairies have seen wetter summers in recent years, he said, with yields surprising participants to the upside. However, this year looks different.

“The chances of the (canola production) number being over 22 (million tonnes) now are not very good,” said Burnett. “I think we’ll be down half a bushel from last year.”

Many of the trade guesses were bearish on flax production with most predicting a little over 500,000 tonnes. One of the main reasons for that was the decline in acreage from other years.

“Yields have improved in flax but it’s nowhere near what’s happened with canola or soybeans or some of the other crops. That’s one of the reasons why it’s fallen in popularity,” Burnett added.

The mood seems a little brighter for all-wheat production this year with most guesses exceeding the 30 million tonne mark.

“I think the wheat crop could be three million tonnes bigger than that,” said Ball. “But right now 30 and a half makes sense.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

Table: A quick summary of pre-report estimates ahead of the Aug. 31, 2018 Statistics Canada production report, in millions of tonnes.

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