In the report released on April 17, AAFC’s kept 2024/25 canola exports at 7.500 million tonnes. However, the Canadian Grain Commission reported that day those year-to-date exports reached 7.381 million tonnes with 16 weeks remaining in the marketing year.

Among the slight alterations AAFC included was nudging up all wheat exports by 100,000 tonnes to 26.25 million, as well as corn to 2.400 million and soybeans to 5.600 million. Also, the department trimmed 2024/25 domestic use for corn by 100,000 tonnes at 15.041 million and cut that for soybeans by 200,000 tonnes at 2.265 million.

AAFC eased back 2024/25 all wheat ending stocks by 100,000 tonnes to 4.300 million, and the same for durum at 500,000. Meanwhile, the carryover for soybeans was bumped up 100,000 tonnes at 675,000.

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StatCan issued its stocks of principal field crops as of Dec.31, 2024, which showed total canola stocks at 11.38 million tonnes. That’s down from 14.09 million tonnes a year ago and it’s the tightest level since the drought year of 2021. The agency pointed to increased exports and domestic use of the oilseed for the decline.

A survey by Reuters ranged total canola stocks from 10.80 million to 13.2 million tonnes.

“This is a step further towards confirming tight canola stocks this year,” commented MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville.

In the breakdown of stocks, StatCan pegged on-farm canola at 9.89 million tonnes, compared to 12.92 million a year ago. However, commercial stocks bumped up to almost 1.50 million tonnes from 1.17 million.

As for all wheat, StatCan estimated total stocks at 24.48 million tonnes and the year-ago at 24.25 million. On-farm stocks were estimated at 20.94 million tonnes versus 20.24 million the previous Dec. 31. Commercial levels slipped to 3.54 million tonnes from 4.01 million. The federal agency said increased production in 2024/25 led to the larger stocks.

Of the wheat, total durum stocks accounted for 3.62 million tonnes, up from 3.19 million last year. That comprised of 3.02 million tonnes on-farm compared 2.58 million and commercial stocks of 600,000 tonnes, dipping from 610,000 tonnes.

The Reuters survey slotted total all wheat stocks at 22.50 million to 23.50 million, with durum at 1.70 million to 3.70 million tonnes.

Canada’s total corn stocks of 11.32 million were virtually unchanged from the 11.30 million the previous Dec. 31. Also, barley stocks of 4.96 million tonnes pulled back from 5.46 million, while soybeans increased to 4.15 million tonnes from 3.74 million. Oat stocks of 2.19 million tonnes slipped from 2.29 million a year ago.

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One of the most notable numbers in the December outlook for principal field crops was AAFC holding its call on canola exports for 2024/25 at 7.50 million tonnes, despite StatCan cutting production to 17.85 million from 18.98 million. The AAFC’s report explained the department did so because “…the impact of China’s announced anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola remaining unknown at this time.”

As well, AAFC listed five factors for the canola market needs to keep an eye on: the strength of China’s buying; farmer delivery pace; crush pace; possible tariff and non-tariffs barriers for seed, oil and meal; and the size of the soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina.

AAFC reduced its domestic use projection for 2024/25 canola to 11.94 million tonnes from 12.13 million in November. Combined with smaller production, that led the department to drop canola ending stocks to 1.25 million tonnes from 2.20 million.

With 2024/25 all wheat production being nudged higher by StatCan to 34.96 million tonnes from 34.29 million, AAFC upped exports to 26.15 million tonnes versus November’s 25.70 million. Also, domestic use rose to 9.10 million tonnes from 8.73 million. Ending stocks were eased back to 4.45 million tonnes from 4.60 million.

Among the lentils, AAFC lowered ending stocks for dry peas to 325,000 from November’s 450,000 tonnes. Lentils were cut as well, with the December figure at 350,000 tonnes from 475,000 the previous month.

– With files from Phil Franz-Warkentin, Glacier Farm Media

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The department bumped up all wheat exports for 2024/25 to 25.70 million tonnes from 25.40 million last month. As well those for durum are now at 4.90 million tonnes, tacking on 100,000 tonnes. AAFC pointed to this year’s wheat and durum exports improving over those from the same time in 2023/24.

That led to Canadian all wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 being reduced to 4.60 million tonnes from 4.90 million in October. Durum slipped to 800,000 tonnes from last month’s 900,000.

This is the final AAFC report using Statistic Canada’s principal field crop report from September. StatCan is scheduled to release its next report on Dec. 5 with the AAFC report set for Dec. 19.

November estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Saskatchewan produces 90 per cent of Canada’s canary seed crop, which is also known as alpiste and is used as a health food and bird seed. The top destination for the province’s canary seed exports was Mexico.

“Saskatchewan plays a key role in establishing Canada as the world’s largest producer and exporter of canary seed,” Agriculture Minister David Marit said in a news release. “Global consumption for canary seed is relatively steady, and meeting that need as a reliable supplier of this and many other agricultural commodities is one of the reasons why our producers have always had such an important role in our economy.”

“Saskatchewan remains a reliable producer of food, fuel, fertilizer and critical minerals the world needs,” Trade and Export Development Minister Jeremy Harrison said. “After a record-breaking year of agri-food exports, it is more important than ever that we continue to reach new international markets. The Saskatchewan Mexico Trade and Investment Office has been a key component in strengthening exports to the region, resulting in economic benefits here at home.”

According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), 284,418 acres of canary seed were estimated to have been planted across Canada in 2024 for a projected crop of 161,869 tonnes. In Saskatchewan alone, an estimated 274,039 acres were grown for a potential crop of 155,525 tonnes.

Canada accounts for more than half of global canary seed production, exporting to other countries including Belgium, Brazil, Spain and the United States. Canada exported 112,265 tonnes of canary seed during the 2023-24 marketing year, with Mexico accounting for 31 per cent of the total, according to StatCan data.

Saskatchewan also surpassed C$20.2 billion in agri-food exports in 2023, exceeding its 2030 Growth Plan target of C$20 billion seven years ahead of schedule.

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David Nobbs, chair of the Canary Seed Development Commission of Saskatchewan and pulse merchant for Purely Canada Foods, said exports are on pace for 110,000 to 120,000 tonnes in 2023-24, compared to 150,000 to 160,000 in a typical year. Statistics Canada (StatCan) projected 125,000 tonnes of exports for 2023-24, compared to 147,000 the previous year.

He cited reasons for the slowdown such as competition from other countries and a lack of demand in Europe, but also a five-cent per pound discount for new crop compared to old crop, United States millet prices at 10 U.S. cents per pound and a Brazilian ban on Canadian canary seed due to phytosanitary concerns.

“It’s not really one thing. It was a number of things that impacted us,” Nobbs said.

While these obstacles may doom the outlook for any crop, things are looking up for the Canadian canary seed market, according to Nobbs. Prices for new crop have stayed the same compared to last year – at around 36 cents/lb. – and hasn’t come down compared to other major crops.

“If you’re an eastern Saskatchewan grower, I think canary seed makes a lot of sense this year compared to last year. I think acres are going to increase. I don’t think acres are going to be huge, but acres are going to increase,” Nobbs said, estimating between 300,000 and 330,000 seeded acres, more than Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) forecast of 291,600.

Nobbs also doesn’t trust the accuracy of StatCan’s 2023-24 acreage numbers, which showed nearly 257,000 for canary seed.

“Crop insurance had seen a rise of acres in Saskatchewan (in 2023-24) whereas StatCan showed a drop,” he said. “I think (acres) will be at 300,000, close to last year. But the increase is probably 10 per cent higher at 330,000.”

Nobbs said he is seeing a lack of contracting, which he interprets as growers anticipating higher prices. Last fall, canary seed prices rose to 46 cents/lb. before settling lower. He touted canary seed as a high-priced crop that grows well under wet conditions with few Fusarium concerns.

“Generally, you’re going to have 50 per cent of the volume in a wheat crop, but you have double the price or even higher,” Nobbs explained. “I view the durum market looking pretty weak this year and if I could grow all canary seed, I would. Whether or not growers will (drop durum completely), I don’t know.”

A normal-sized canary seed crop would likely produce prices in a range of 32 to 38 cents/lb., according to Nobbs, adding that a larger-than-normal crop could be worth 30 cents/lb. while a smaller-than-normal crop could fetch 40 cents/lb.

“The outcome is going to be important,” he said. “Some of the other things may not fix themselves. I don’t know what Colorado or European millet values are going to be. I think what hurt us a lot are millet prices. Even flax is cheaper as a bird food … There’s a lot of stuff to happen between now and next harvest. I guess we’ll wait and see.”

—Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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The Canadian Grain Commission on Tuesday announced changes in store effective Aug. 1 for how Canadian wheat is graded, along with a list of clarifications and new housekeeping rules for the grading of other crops it regulates.

For one, the CGC will update its Official Grain Grading Guide’s definition of “severely sprouted” as a grading factor for western classes of wheat, following research on how far sprouting has to advance to affect end-use quality.

Under the current rule, a kernel of wheat is classified as “regular sprouted” if it has sprouts that are visible but still “within the contours of the germ.”

To be classified instead as “severely sprouted,” a kernel today must either be clearly “severely degenerated,” or clearly sprouted beyond the contour of the germ — or it must show signs of a sprout that’s broken or missing, whether with or without clear evidence of a sprout’s length or severity.

It’s been given that a kernel deemed “severely sprouted” contains a higher level of alpha-amylase than a “regular sprouted” kernel, which has negative impacts on the wheat’s falling number, which in turn is an indicator of the soundness of the grain.

But the research done last year and this year at the CGC’s Grain Research Laboratory found kernels of Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) and durum wheats that show a sprout broken or missing, without clear evidence of a sprout’s length or severity, had alpha-amylase activity and impact on falling number in the same range as in “regular sprouted” wheat, rather than the other forms of “severely sprouted” wheat.

Thus, starting Aug. 1, kernels of sprouted western wheats with sprouts broken or missing, but without any clear evidence of a sprout’s length or severity, will be redefined as “regular sprouted” rather than “severely sprouted.” The impact on end-use functionality, the lab found, was “similar to that of regular sprouted kernels.”

Tolerances

Among other changes scheduled to take effect Aug. 1, tolerances for test weight and total foreign material are being matched up in most classes of western wheat that until now had different tolerances for “primary” or “export” use.

Under the new rule, test weight and total foreign material tolerances will be aligned to the “export” tolerances for all grades of:

• Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS);
• Canada Western Hard White Spring (CWHWS);
• Canada Western Extra Strong (CWES);
• Canada Western Soft White Spring (CWSWS); and
• Canada Northern Hard Red (CNHR) wheats.

On a related note, total foreign material “primary” and “export” tolerances for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) wheat will also be lined up to the “export” tolerances for all grades.

An “export” tolerance is used when grain is destined for a market overseas and is shipped out of the country through a terminal grain elevator. Such a tolerance is set based on research and is used to ensure milling quality expectations are met for end-use customers, the CGC said Tuesday.

A “primary” tolerance, meanwhile, is set lower than an export tolerance; it’s used when grain is delivered directly to a primary grain elevator within Canada.

Sieves

Among other changes taking effect in the Grain Grading Guide starting Aug. 1, the process for determination of dockage, in the canola chapter, will clarify the process and the different-sized sieves that should be used.

That change, the CGC said, comes in the wake of concerns raised by producers about “inconsistencies in the process used at delivery.”

The guide’s definition of “processed sample” will also be updated in all chapters, in the wake of issues with samples submitted to the CGC for official grades from which dockage was already removed.

The guide will also see adjustment to the composition of dockage to include insect parts, and the definition for insect parts will be adjusted in the lentils, beans, chickpeas and fababeans chapters.

Also, in the canary seed chapter, the composition of dockage will be adjusted to include the percentage of hulled seeds in dockage, and the definition of foreign material and hulled seeds will be adjusted accordingly. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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David Nobbs, pulse merchant for Purely Canada Foods in Saskatoon and former chair of the Canary Seed Development Commission of Saskatchewan, said after the price for the crop in Western Canada hit 57 cents per pound in the fall of 2021, a large surplus had pressured it since.

The high-delivered bid as of Friday was 39 cents/lb., seven cents less than one year ago, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

“We simply had too much canary seed in the bins,” Nobbs said. “Too much product came to town and the market gradually came down.”

However, he also mentioned canary seed prices above 35 cents/lb. are historically high. Nobbs expects them to trend down to between 30 to 40 cents/lb. later this year, which could attract buyers from Mexico and the European Union, where half of Canada’s crop is exported.

“As we see the price of wheat come down, canary seed is very competitive (compared to wheat and durum) at 35 cents/lb.,” he said. “I think we’ll see more acres this year than last year.”

In last month’s production estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), Canadian canary seed production is projected for 159,000 tonnes, 32,000 more than last year, on 291,584 acres, a decline of 14,826 acres from 2021-22.

Nobbs believes those projections are sharp undercounts while also expecting a repeat of last year’s high yields in eastern Saskatchewan. He also cited many reasons for additional canary seed acres, such as lower seed costs and needing fewer inputs than wheat.

“We’ll see acres drift towards canary seed. It doesn’t have fusarium issues; it doesn’t have wheat midge issues; it doesn’t have grating issues. It’s an easy crop to grow,” he said. “That’s why I feel like acres are going up and that’s why our prices are going to trend down a bit more.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Nobbs explained prices were on a rollercoaster in 2021, starting out at around 30 cents per pound only to climb through the 30s and 40s, pushing into the 50s as drought took hold across the region.

Production last year fell almost 39 per cent compared to the 178,000 tonnes harvested in 2020-21, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s January supply and demand report.

Ending stocks of 26,000 tonnes were squeezed to 5,000, which cut the stocks-to-use ratio from 16 to only four per cent.

Nobbs said prices climbed into the 60-cent range before buyers began to turn away, which eventually forced prices back to 45 cents/lb. for old crop.

“We are into a different part of the marketing year where farmers tend to be more worried about cash flow then they are the top price. Now we are on the downside of the crop year,” he said.

Prices, he said, should bounce back to about 40 cents/lb. — “which for the first 20 years of my career was a record price,” he added.

As for the 2022-23 crop year, he’s not completely sure as to how things will pan out. A lot depends on what farmers choose to plant and what buyers are looking for. Nevertheless, he feels prices will increase from the mid-30s into the 40s for new crop.

There are still some concerns about drought on Prairies continuing through this year, but more snow would help to alleviate the situation, he said.

On another note, the canary seed industry is looking to rebrand itself with another name as the product was approved for human consumption.

Rather than continuing with canary seed and its association with bird feed, the industry decided to rename it ‘alpiste,’ its Portuguese and Spanish name.

— Reporting by Glen Hallick for Glacier MarketsFarm in Winnipeg, with files from Michael Robin of the Western Producer.

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“Overall, canary seed is one of the most susceptible to the drought when compared to other crops,” he said, noting it’s shallow-rooted and could not access any soil moisture further down.

Yungmann, who farms near St. Gregor, about 20 km east of Humboldt, said prices have been climbing this year and were around 55 cents/lb.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported canary seed prices were currently 52 to 57 cents/lb. delivered on the Prairies. Over the course of the last 12 months, prices have climbed from 25 cents/lb and reached as high as 58 cents.

The great majority of the canary seed market has remained in bird feed, although Yungmann noted the crop was approved for human consumption in January 2016.

“But the market is still developing,” he said.

Also, canary seed became an official grain under the Canada Grains Act in 2021.

One issue the canary seed industry has been facing, other than this year’s tough growing conditions, is the global shortage of shipping containers. Yungmann said canary seed is most often bagged and then loaded into containers — and it has been difficult to ship product.

As for next year’s crop, he was uncertain as to what could develop. “It’s hard to say what the market will do. It depends if we get some timely rains or snow to help out growing conditions.”

For the last seven years, canary seed production has been on the rise in Canada, according to Statistics Canada. Production dropped back to 131,000 tonnes in 2013 and had climbed since, topping off at 178,200 tonnes in 2020. But production remained well short of 2004’s record crop of 300,500 tonnes.

This year the federal agency is expecting 112,000 tonnes, which would be the smallest crop since the 100,300 tonnes produced in 1991.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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