Canadian canola stocks as of Dec. 31, 2023, came in at 12.9 million tonnes, which was up 1.3 per cent from the same time the previous year but slightly below the five-year average of 13.3 million tonnes. On-farm stocks were up 5.6 per cent from the same time the previous year, at 11.7 million tonnes, while commercial stocks fell 27.7 per cent at 1.2 million tonnes. Some market participants had anticipated even larger on-farm stocks, given the slower export pace during the crop year-to-date.

Meanwhile, total wheat stocks were down 10.3 per cent on the year at 20.7 million tonnes. On-farm stocks fell 11.7 per cent to come in at 16.7 million tonnes while commercial holdings were down 4.2 per cent at 4.0 million tonnes. Canadian wheat exports through the first five months of the crop year were up 2.7 per cent at 10.6 million tonnes.

Barley stocks increased to 5.5 million tonnes, from 5.2 million tonnes at the end of December 2022. The increased stocks came despite the smaller crop, as domestic usage declined 16.6 per cent on the year, according to StatCan.

Oats stocks were down 40.3 per cent year over year at 2.1 million tonnes. Pea and lentil stocks were down 15.6 per cent and 30.5 per cent respectively, at 1.8 million tonnes for peas and 1.0 million tonnes for lentils.

Corn stocks in the country were down 4.8 per cent at 11.3 million tonnes, while soybean supplies increased 9.8 per cent to come in at 3.8 million tonnes.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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The government agency pegged canola supplies in the country at the end of March at 10.019 million tonnes, up by 10.5 per cent from the previous year, and up from the five-year average of 8.68 million tonnes.

Of that total, on-farm stocks of 8.838 million tonnes were also a new record for March 31, and well above the previous five-year average of 7.151 million.

Canadian barley stocks as of March 31 hit their lowest level in records going back to 1981, with only 2.488 million tonnes on hand in 2019. That compares with 3.39 million the previous year and the five-year average of 3.94 million tonnes.

Oat stocks were also tight, with 1.401 million tonnes in the country as of March 31, down by 33.4 per cent from 2018 and well below the five-year average of 1.914 million tonnes.

All-wheat stocks of 15.694 million tonnes were down by 4.3 per cent from the previous year and the tightest since 2016. Of that total, durum stocks of 3.915 million tonnes were up by 18 per cent on the year and up from the five-year average of 3.327 million tonnes.

Pea and lentil stocks were both down slightly from their year-ago levels, at 1.401 million and 1.363 million tonnes respectively.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Table: Statistics Canada stocks of field crops as of March 31, 2019, in millions of tonnes.

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Statistics Canada on Friday pegged canola supplies in the country as of March 31 at 9.1 million tonnes, the second-largest on record for that time of year and about 1.1 million tonnes above the stocks on hand at the same point in 2017.

“The canola number came in a shade below expectations, but it still confirms that we’re headed towards a pretty good (ending) stocks number this year,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial.

The big stocks, he said, should also be seen as confirmation that the Statistics Canada production estimate for 2017 of 21.3 million tonnes wasn’t overstated, as some industry participants had speculated.

“We will still have a fairly decent carryout. We’re not short on canola,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

End-user demand from both exporters and domestic crushers is running behind the year-ago pace, but is still solid overall.

“While the stocks are comfortable, there’s still not much room for any significant adversity,” said Ball, noting attention now is focused on new-crop production.

He described conditions across Western Canada as variable, with the western Prairies on the wetter side and the eastern Prairies very dry.

Wheat stocks as of March 31 were pegged at 16.4 million tonnes, down by about 600,000 tonnes from the same point the previous year. Declines in durum accounted for all of the change, with stocks of that crop at 3.4 million.

Barley stocks were on the tight side, down 25 per cent on the year at 3.4 million tonnes. Jubinville said the tighter barley stocks were showing themselves in the cash market, which has shown some strength through the winter.

Pea and lentil stocks were both up on the year, confirming the poor export demand for the crops since India backed away from the global pulse market.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s stocks report for the period ended March 31, 2018, in millions of metric tonnes.

* – “All wheat” includes durum, spring and winter wheat

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The unexpected revision to the old-crop production now has many industry participants questioning just how large the current crop is.

Canadian canola stocks, as of July 31, were pegged at 2.016 million tonnes by StatsCan, which compares with 2.542 million at the same point the previous year.

However, supply/demand numbers heading into the report had pointed to a carryout closer to one million tonnes, and the bigger than expected ending stocks were largely explained by a revision to the size of the crop grown in 2015.

Just two weeks after the last official production estimates, StatsCan has now revised its 2015-16 canola production estimate 1.2 million tonnes higher, to 18.4 million tonnes.

“That’s a pretty hefty jump,” said Mike Jubinville, of ProFarmer Canada. “This now seriously calls into question StatsCan’s current 2016-17 crop at 17 million tonnes as potentially grossly understated.”

“Today’s report basically confirms that we’ll see upward revisions to this year’s crop from the August report for canola,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office for Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg.

“This causes traders to second-guess the previous StatsCan numbers,” he added, noting the stocks report was “neutral to bearish” for canola with large increases to this year’s crop now expected.

“Nobody believes anything Statistics Canada comes out with anymore,” said analyst Wayne Palmer of AgriTrend Marketing, noting the government agency can make revisions going back as far as two years.

While the StatsCan numbers are questioned, he said the lack of confidence in the official data was also tied to the general belief that farmers typically underreport their crops in order to try and generate higher prices.

Solid demand will work to counter the larger supplies, but any concerns over tightening supplies have subsided, said Jubinville.

Palmer agreed demand was there for the larger canola supplies, but added prices were unlikely to see much movement during the harvest period over the next month.

Looking at the other crops, total wheat ending stocks, at 5.2 million tonnes, were down from the 7.1 million tonnes at the same point the previous year, but a bit higher than expectations.

The slightly larger than expected wheat supplies show that domestic feed use was a bit lower, said Klassen.

Meanwhile, he said, barley stocks showed the opposite, with feed usage a bit larger than thought. Total Canadian barley supplies, as of July 31, came in at 1.4 million tonnes, which compares with 1.2 million tonnes at the same point the previous year.

Lentil ending stocks, at 73,000 tonnes, were down from the 365,000 carried out the previous year. Pea stocks, at 176,000 tonnes, were also well below the 684,000 seen at the same point in 2015.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @philfw on Twitter.

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StatsCan pegged the country’s canola stocks, as of March 31, at 7.49 million tonnes in its report released Friday. That compares with 8.33 million at the same point the previous year.

The tighter supplies were in line with trade guesses, although most industry participants were anticipating an even smaller number.

“Usage is strong, and there’s no obvious reason why it won’t continue to be strong,” said canola broker Ken Ball of PI Financial.

Solid demand and a tightening supply situation, together with uncertain weather conditions facing the 2016-17 crop, will keep commercial buying interest in the market going forward, he said.

Analyst Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing said actual canola stocks were likely much tighter than what StatsCan is reporting, given the anecdotal reports coming from farmers.

StatsCan pegged Canadian wheat stocks (including durum), as of March 31, at 13.79 million tonnes, which would be well below the 18.09 million in the country at the same point the previous year and the tightest stocks at that date since 2008.

Canadian wheat exports have been strong this year, and the wheat stocks were in line with trade expectations.

Barley was one of the few crops that saw supplies rise on the year, with stocks as of March 31 coming in at 3.81 million tonnes. That was up by 400,000 tonnes from the same point the previous year, and above average trade guesses.

“There’s more barley out there than we really need,” said Palmer.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada on Twitter at @CNSCanada.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s stocks report for the period ended March 31, 2016. Figures in millions of tonnes.

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The report on grain and oilseed stocks as of Dec. 31, 2015 will provide a better indication of feed usage to date, while also helping confirm the official production estimates.

“The stocks report will confirm the production estimate from December, and provide an idea of the feed usage for wheat and barley,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office for Swiss-based grain trade GAP SA Grains and Produits.

Non-durum wheat stocks will be watched especially closely this year, he said, as production was down and exports are running ahead of the year-ago level, which could eventually lead to a historically tight carryout. The question now is just how much wheat is going into feed channels.

Relatively strong feed wheat prices in Western Canada are believed to be hindering feed usage, but there are also more cattle on feed, which raises some uncertainty over what the official stock numbers will show.

The milder winter has also had an as-yet unknown impact on feed usage, said analyst Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada. While export demand is well reported, he said, the stocks report should help provide a better sense of the domestic demand — especially for cereals.

Canadian all-wheat stocks of 25.6 million tonnes were reported on Dec. 31, 2014. For the current crop year, most industry participants anticipate a number in the 20 million- to 22 million-tonne area.

Feed usage will also be important for barley, with high feed wheat prices likely leading to an increase in barley usage. The weak Canadian dollar has also shut out imports of U.S. corn or DDGs.

The stocks number for barley will help determine the price direction over the remainder of the crop year, Klassen said. A number below the 5.4 million tonnes available at the same point the previous year would be deemed supportive.

For canola, feed usage is not a major factor, but the stocks number will still be watched closely as it provides confirmation of the official production estimate.

“It is going to be a very interesting report, simply because there are a lot of people out there who seem to think the StatsCan crop estimate (for canola) was way too high,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial.

As a result, he said, traders will be looking at the stocks report to see how the numbers line up with their own production estimates.

Klassen said if canola stocks as of Dec. 31, 2015 came in at around 12 million tonnes it would confirm the production estimate of 17.2 million. However, if the stocks fall closer to 11 million, it would imply production was overstated and significantly tighten the supply/demand balance sheet.

Canadian canola stocks on Dec. 31, 2014, came in at 12.6 million tonnes.

“Do the big deliveries mean that farmers are running out, or do they mean that they have too much to deliver?” Winnipeg-area trader Bill Craddock asked, noting there were two opinions heading into the report as to what the stocks numbers would say about the canola supply situation.

Jubinville reiterated that sentiment, noting both canola and wheat are being exported at a faster pace relative to supplies. If the pace continues, it would grind inventories down to very tight levels for both crops, but there are also many other variables at play.

“It’s one small information piece of a thousand-piece puzzle,” he said, adding that the report “will give some inclination of how things are progressing on the demand side.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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StatsCan is scheduled to release its report on Wednesday.

“Because of that tighter acreage, the stocks number will be watched pretty closely this week,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

On April 23, Statistics Canada pegged 2015-16 Canadian canola acreage at 19.4 million acres, smaller than the 20 million acres some industry members believe is needed to fulfill demand.

The report will also be important for canola because supplies in Canada aren’t “overwhelmingly large,” Ball said, adding “the stocks reports are always fairly important as a gauge to whether our numbers are in line or not.”

General expectations call for canola stocks to be around 7.1 to 7.8 million tonnes, down from 8.6 million on March 31 last year.

According to Jerry Klassen, manager of Swiss-based GAP Grains and Products, expectations call for a tighter canola figure as both the crush and export paces have been ahead of last year.

All wheat stocks (spring, winter, durum) are generally pegged in the 17.2 million- to 18.7 million-tonne area, from 21.9 million tonnes at the same time in 2014.

“We had a fairly good export program for wheat and there’s been a lot more wheat fed domestically compared to last year because of the poorer quality crop,” said Klassen. “So, I think that’s having an effect on the stocks, and obviously so is the lower production.”

The stocks figure for barley will also be watched closely in the report, as the carryout is rather tight and some people are “anxious to see how much feed was used domestically,” Klassen added.

Though the stocks report is important for determining the supply and demand situation for Canada’s major crops, the effects on markets and prices aren’t likely to be long lasting.

“Whatever the numbers are, people will look at them for a second and then continue (focusing) on what spring weather will be,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

— Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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A poor-quality crop produced in Canada in 2014-15 is one reason importers have started sourcing their malt supplies from other countries. North America has even started importing the commodity from Europe to make up for the lack of good-quality barley in Canada.

Recent figures show Canada now exports about 900,000 tonnes of malt barley per year, below Australia at two million tonnes and Argentina at one million, Selinger said.

Argentina’s production is likely to start tapering off, which should give Canada a little bit of that share back, Selinger said. What Argentina produces and exports will influence how much Canada exports going forward.

Global demand for malting barley remains steady, and though world production has dropped off in recent years, supplies haven’t found themselves to be extremely tight.

“Overall, we are in a comfortable place for global production” and stocks, said Selinger, the company’s North American merchandising manager.

Canada’s barley production has also been on a steady decline, though domestic demand continues to rise, which has also contributed to fewer exports of the commodity.

One driving force behind stronger local demand is the growing number of craft breweries, which generally use very high malt content barley for their products.

Data show there were about 400 licensed craft brewers in North America in 1990. Currently, there are more than 3,700 and that number is expected to swell above 4,000, Selinger said.

Generally good prices for malting barley this year could lead to an increase in Canadian acres of about five per cent, Selinger said. Lower values for competing grains such as wheat are also making barley a more attractive crop to grow.

Statistics Canada data show the 2014-15 area seeded to barley totaled 5.9 million acres.

— Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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StatsCan’s figure for canola stocks as of Dec. 31, at 11.103 million tonnes, was at the high end of expectations, surpassing what some market watchers anticipated.

“I’m not sure if that means that StatsCan’s production number for 2014 is understated, and it’s bigger than 15.56 million tonnes,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada. “Or, the demand element for the first five months of the marketing year was not quite as strong as expected.”

ICE Futures Canada’s canola market initially moved lower Tuesday in reaction to the report, as it means ending stocks for canola could increase from previous estimates.

But macro issues, such as outside oilseeds and currency movement, will continue to be the main drivers going forward, Jubinville added.

The report was also bearish for flaxseed, oats and barley, as the stocks estimates were all either above or at the top end of pre-report guesses.

“It could be suggesting that more feed wheat is being substituted for barley in terms of the usage side of things. Or maybe the barley (production) number is also understated,” Jubinville said.

The report showed animal feed, waste and dockage usage for barley was at 2.67 million tonnes as of Dec. 31, down sharply from a year ago when 3.57 million tonnes were used.

This suggests StatsCan’s production figure of 7.12 million tonnes of barley for 2014-15 is too low, according to Jerry Klassen, manager of Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg.

Total wheat stocks, at 24.818 million tonnes, were at the lower end of expectations — but it won’t likely impact prices as it doesn’t make a big difference to the broader wheat market, Jubinville said.

Wheat stocks, excluding durum, were fairly large at 20.76 million tonnes, as feed usage dropped significantly as well. Animal feed usage was estimated at 1.96 million tonnes, from 2.99 million tonnes in 2013. Klassen believes this also means StatsCan’s wheat production figure of 24.09 million tonnes is understated.

The one bright spot in the report is on pulses, such as peas and lentils. The two crops had very good usage through the first five months of the crop year, which will likely lead to very tight stocks.

“The pulses look like they’re on track to going to zero for ending stocks this year,” Jubinville added.

StatsCan showed stocks of lentils as of Dec. 31 at 755,000 tonnes, down from 1.45 million the year prior. Pea stocks were at 1.56 million tonnes, down from 2.34 million in 2013.

— Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s stocks report for the period ended Dec. 31, 2014, in millions of metric tonnes.

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