Assuming normal weather conditions for the season, southern Manitobans can expect levels on the Red River south of the floodway to peak near 2011 levels, the department said.

In 2011, almost three million acres of Manitoba farmland went uncultivated due to flooding on the Assiniboine and Red Rivers and others.

If unfavourable weather conditions arise — late-season snow, spring rain and/or rapid snowmelt, for examples — the Red River may peak at levels close to its 2009 flood.

Flooding on the Red alone in 2009 impacted nearly 215,000 acres of farmland and led to closures of major roads such as Highway 75 connecting Winnipeg to Grand Forks, N.D.

Thursday’s report also indicates the Assiniboine and Souris rivers are also expected to hit levels high enough to flood farmland and other low-lying areas.

Southern Manitobans will have to wait and see what weather the spring brings, as rain in March and April combined with a late melt could compound the flooding risk.

Ice is expected to be thicker than normal, increasing the likelihood of ice-jam flooding.

Manitoba’s major lakes are expected to remain “within their respective operating ranges” this spring, the province said, noting a low risk of overland flooding in the province’s Interlake, upper Assiniboine and Whiteshell regions.

The Saskatchewan River and Carrot River in northern Manitoba, meanwhile, are at “moderate” risk of overland flooding.

Thursday’s report follows a similar outlook released a week ago by the U.S. National Weather Service.

The U.S. agency noted a substantial risk for snowmelt-related flooding above long-term historical averages across the Red River and Devils Lake basins.

— Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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Six schools attended the 13th annual Southwest Manitoba Water Festival, hosted by the Turtle Mountain Conservation District and Assiniboine Hills Conservation District at Whitewater Park east of Elgin.

The event draws from all schools in the districts’ range, except those in Brandon.

“It went over really well actually,” Yasemin Keeler, Turtle Mountain Conservation District manager, said. “We had a great day for it. The sun was shining, so we can’t complain.”

Neil Zalluski, Assiniboine Hills Conservation District manager, said the day’s activities remain largely the same year to year.

Students got hands on with water issues at nine stations at the event, ranging from boat safety to ecological impacts in water systems.

“One of the favourite ones is the critter dipping,” Zalluski said. “We pull out invertebrates out of the water and the kids get time to go through them and figure out what they are and there’s identification sheets there that they can use.”

A display of animal furs, combined with a discussion of the food chain presented by a visiting wildlife biologist, was also a hit, he added.

Stations echo the students’ curriculum, Keeler said.

Students played out the water cycle at one such station, while others dug into more complex issues such as erosion, flow velocity and riparian vegetation’s role in filtering nutrients and sediment before they reach major water bodies.

“They also got to do some tree boring and age the tree and stuff, so they got to do some forestry skills with that as well,” Keeler said.

River Watch, a water quality monitoring program geared for junior high students, was also highlighted.

Offered through the South Central Eco Institute, the program gathers water quality data from largely student-drawn samples. Data is made publicly available on the program’s website. The online presence allows participants to upload test results and compare either their own water quality over time or access data from other regions and watersheds.

The program blankets watersheds in southwestern Manitoba and spreads east through the Lower Red River, Seine and Rat river watersheds.

“What we did at that station was just a little sneak peak, basically, of the program,” Keeler said.

Students were walked through the water-sampling process and discussed uses for the data.

Keeler noted a higher attendance this year, mostly due to larger class sizes in two schools. Annual attendance generally ranges from 150 to 200 students.

The two conservation districts split schools inside their region and alternate invitations each year. This year, schools from Hartney, Deloraine, Waskada, Glenboro, Souris and the Newdale Hutterite Colony were invited.

The event is the Turtle Mountain Conservation District’s main youth outreach of the year outside of select school visits and smaller single class events, Keeler said. The conservation district also supports the Oak Hammock Marsh on-the-go programs, which organizes off-site interpretive events.

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In 1881 it was a single shanty, and just 12 months later it was the province’s first western city, the Wheat City.

Local history buffs will recount how rail plans were moved 50 kilometres south in the 1870s, in line with the Assiniboine River, and how Grand Valley was eyed as a major stop on the line, only for rail officers to become disillusioned with the town and choose what is now Brandon, several miles away, instead.

“Brandon has never been a village, nor a town,” MacDonald Coleman wrote in his book, The Face of Yesterday, an excerpt of which now graces the City of Brandon website. “It did not have time to pause at such intermediate steps. It was created with such stunning suddenness that it has always been a city.”

But while that tale is ever popular and often repeated, it also leaves out a vast swath of history from long before Sir John A. Macdonald brought up the idea of Confederation.

Greg Steele, along with 20 years’ worth of artifacts currently on display at the Brandon General Museum and Archives, hopes to partially fill that gap.

Fur trade roots

A long student of Canadian history with a particular interest in the fur trade, Steele has travelled to over 50 communities from coast to coast, finding everything from shards of pottery, beads and flint to iron tools left in the ruins of what were once trading posts lining Canada’s major waterways.

What he cannot find, he recreates, and his collection includes replicas he has obtained of clothing and gear worn by both voyageurs and Indigenous hunters, canoe oars, a flintlock rifle, trade goods, animal pelts, uniforms in the style of the North-West Mounted Police and bows like those of local Indigenous people at the time.

“We find buffalo teeth, bone of various kinds, vertebrae, and all of that would tell you that the animals had been killed and butchered there,” he said of one site he has explored, along Highway 10 in western Manitoba.

“The other thing we found was some tiny flakes of flint,” he added, noting that flint is often proof of human activity since the mineral is not natural to the area.

The region around Brandon has been a repeat stop for Steele, often yielding hints of a time before Europeans migrated there en masse, but which left a lasting legacy.

The very name, “Brandon,” is believed to stem from Brandon House, a Hudson’s Bay Company outpost that saw the dying days of the fur trade, although Coleman’s book adds that the city was named after the Blue Hills of Brandon, which were themselves named after the trading post.

Strategic

From 1793 to 1832, Brandon House was a waypoint for supplies, beaver pelts and other furs. The location was strategic, perched near the fork of the Assiniboine and Souris rivers and therefore a window to southern trade as the Souris River dipped close to the Missouri River trade route, according to records from the Manitoba Historical Society (MHS).

Between 1793-1824, several versions of Brandon House were built, Steele said, while the final location six miles upstream from the mouth of the Souris River saw the tail end of trade posts in the region and was in operation for only four years (1828-32) before the governor of the Hudson’s Bay company reported all Brandon House posts closed.

“It was a number of different locations on the Assiniboine River itself,” Steele said. “I have actually gone picking — looking for artifacts, if you will — looking for camp sites or kill sites along the Souris River Valley.”

But while Brandon House is the post that inspired the name, it was not alone on the riverbanks.

The Hudson’s Bay Company, which had been granted fur harvest rights in 1.5 million square miles, all the land “watered” by streams flowing into Hudson’s Bay, were challenged by the North West Company — a rival that had its own outpost within throwing distance of Brandon House by the end of the fur trade.

“This was an interesting time because the fur trade was a massive enterprise,” Steele said.

At the peak of competition, according the Manitoba Historical Society, Brandon House shared the region with two North West Company posts — including the nearby Fort Assiniboine and Pine Fort, near what is now Spruce Woods Provincial Park — an independent post and an X.Y. Company site to the south.

Pemmican War

“For a time, relations between the rival posts were reasonably amicable until the outbreak of ‘The Pemmican War’ in 1814,” the MHS wrote in a 1962 article that first appeared in The Manitoba Pageant.”

“This arose when Miles Macdonell, governor of the Selkirk Colony along the Red River, and under the aegis of the Hudson’s Bay Company, decreed that, because of crop failures, no pemmican could be exported,” the MHS article wrote. “This would have cut off supplies for the North West Company’s voyageurs throughout the northwest. The North West Company and its allies, the Métis buffalo hunters, defied the order.”

Along the Assiniboine, the issue came to blows between the two longtime rivals, which by that point faced each other from opposite sides of the Assiniboine River.

By 1816, personnel from North West Company post La Souris crossed the river to temporarily take Brandon House, reportedly in retaliation to the Hudson’s Bay Company seizure of Fort Gibraltar near what is now The Forks in Winnipeg, according to the MHS.

“This sacking of Brandon House was the curtain raiser to the bloody drama of Seven Oaks 18 days later, when Governor Semple, 20 of the colony men and a North West Company employee were killed,” the 1962 article read.

When Brandon House disappeared in 1832, the Hudson’s Bay Company and North West Company had amalgamated and the fur trade had slowed, a result of shifting fashion in England, with the beaver fur hats that had driven trade being replaced with felt, and the beaver becoming increasingly rare.

“By 1840, basically, the fur trade as a competitive industry was really dying hard, but up until then, they tried to marry them together so that they didn’t have the costs of competition — two posts within rifle shot of each other,” Steele said.

By the time Brandon was established, boats still ran to Fort Ellice near what is now St. Lazare, but little else remained on the banks of the Assiniboine River and the intervening time has done little to stem the decline.

“If you’re lucky, you’re just going to find a depression where there had been some sort of foundation put up and then a building left,” Steele said of the remaining outpost sites. “Many of them are not identified.”

For those that are, Steele is making it his mission to dig out any remnants of the past they have to offer.

Before Brandon, the exhibit highlighting Steele’s 20 years of work, which includes the history of Brandon House and other notable early events of Western Canada, runs until Oct. 31 as part of Brandon’s Canada 150 celebrations.

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The hydrological model, to be launched in March 2018, will mimic the interaction between water and land in the Assiniboine River Basin.

“As we learn more about the MFGA Aquanty model, it becomes more and more evident that this model has great potential as a necessary decision-support tool for flood and drought planning in the Assiniboine River Basin,” Dave Koslowsky, Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association chair, said.

Announced in 2016, the over-$3-million project will use HydroGeoSphere software developed by research company Aquanty Inc. The software has previously been used for site assessment in the mining and energy industry, flood risk assessment, research on groundwater in Prairie potholes and other applications. The company has turned to Saskatchewan IT firm ISM to interpret and package its data for the public. Data will be available through an online portal and may be used to create tables, graphs, line plots and maps to reflect different scenarios.

The finished product will include five interconnected models, one for the entire region, one for each of the three sub-basins (the Assiniboine, Souris and Qu’Appelle rivers), and an in-depth analysis of the Assiniboine-Birdstail Watershed. The watershed crosses the Manitoba-Saskatch­ewan border and runs from south of Miniota to Riding Mountain National Park.

Nearing completion

The project has faced its first stress test after a scenario added riparian vegetation to the Assiniboine-Birdstail Watershed. Initial results were presented during a June 21 Aquanty project tour in Russell.

The test simulated a 300-metre buffer around waterways and measured impact on river flow rates, according to Alaba Boluwade, one of the project’s scientists. Results showed peak flows were reduced and snowmelt run-off was delayed with the increase in riparian vegetation. The model consistently matched flow trends when compared to historical data, although exact flows varied somewhat from observed measurements in several years studied.

Steve Frey, one of the lead researchers on the project, called the results, “very promising because we see that the model is sensitive to the elements of the landscape that it should be sensitive to.”

“We’re trying to simulate Mother Nature to the best of our ability and we’re building, basically, a three-dimensional realization of what the real world looks like, but it’s only a model. Models are inherently uncertain,” he said. “It should never be looked at as an exact replica of the natural system, but the fact that we rely on underlying physics and physical laws of how water moves through the surface and subsurface means that we can capture the key elements of what drives water flows under flood and drought conditions.”

The watershed was singled out both for its size — 7,000 square kilometres compared to the 40,000-60,000 square kilometres of the Assiniboine, Souris or Qu’Appelle river basins — as well as diversity of cropland, forest and grasslands, Frey told MFGA publication, the Grasslander, earlier this year.

“The smaller we go in area, the more resolution we can carry,” Frey later said. “So if we want to identify localized impacts of land use changes in and around the rivers, such as putting more forages and grasslands into the landscape, we can see the highest level of detail in the smaller models.

“We actually are using information generated at a much larger scale to drive the local-scale simulations,” he added. “The groundwater systems are all interconnected and stream flows are interconnected, so we need to know what’s going on around these local high-resolution areas in order to really resolve what’s going on within them.”

Boluwade hopes to model similar scenarios with a 50-metre buffer now that initial results have come in.

Useful tool

Frey says the project’s main goal is to quantify the role of forage and grassland in the watershed, but the finished model will have implications for climate change policy, drainage and flood mitigation and nutrient transport, among others.

“I’m quite encouraged,” Ryan Canart, Upper Assiniboine River Conservation District manager, said. “I think the different uses for the model are going to grow as we learn a little bit more about it.”

The conservation district is one of the main stakeholders in the Assiniboine-Birdstail Watershed and was the focus of the June 21 tour.

Canart says he is already considering other scenarios he would like to run through the program. In particular, he says the model may shed light on infiltration-focused farm management and how it compares to water management infrastructure. Surface water management is among the district’s top priorities, as laid out in the Assiniboine-Birdstail Integrated Watershed Management Plan.

“I think you can take the model and add 50 small dams to the landscape and run them all and say, ‘How does that affect how much peak flow comes through?’ and get a number,” he said. “And then you can say, ‘OK, with the same amount of money we could work with 10-15 farms and could put in practices that increase the organic content in their soil, therefore holding “x” gallons of water, how does that compare to the small-dam concept?’”

Water control structures will account for a significant part of the district’s budget this year, Canart said during a tour stop at one such structure.

The model will also back their education programming and outreach to local farmers with scientific evidence, Canart said.

The Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association is now identifying potential user groups and how those groups might access the project.

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Levels of spring flooding still depend on future weather conditions, Infrastructure Minister Blaine Pedersen said Friday in the province’s March flood outlook, but the risk of overland flooding is “slightly reduced” from the February outlook.

Flooding risk, he said, remains “moderate to major” across the province.

“At this time, the Souris River basin continues to be of concern while favourable weather conditions have eased expected flows in the Red River Basin,” he said, so the chance is low of closing Highway 75, the principal highway from Winnipeg to the U.S.

Right now, the province said, it’s anticipated the province’s major flood infrastructure, including the Red River Floodway and the Portage Diversion, would be activated under unfavourable weather conditions.

The province on Wednesday announced it’s increasing outflow from the Shellmouth Reservoir, a flood control structure on the Assiniboine River at the Saskatchewan border, to 600 cubic feet per second.

More increases in outflow on the Shellmouth are expected over the next few days to maintain storage in the reservoir for anticipated spring runoff, the province said.

With “unfavourable” weather, the province said, the outlook suggests “major” risk on watersheds in the southwestern region; “moderate to major” risk on the Pembina, Roseau River and Assiniboine Rivers; “major” risk in the eastern region and on the Winnipeg River; “moderate” risk in the Interlake region and on the Red and Fisher rivers; and moderate risk in northern Manitoba, around The Pas regions and on the Saskatchewan, Carrot and Swan rivers.

Pedersen, after a municipal tour of potentially affected areas in the southwest, said the province is planning for flooding based on unfavourable weather conditions and the scenario of highest flood risk.

The province said it plans to provide daily flood information to municipalities once runoff begins, to “fine tune” flood preparations. — AGCanada.com Network

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Levels of future snowfall and/or rainfall, the timing and speed of snowmelt, and the runoff timing in Manitoba, the U.S., Saskatchewan and Ontario are still “key factors,” the provincial government said Monday in a release.

Forecast models so far suggest the Red, Souris, Pembina, Roseau and Lower Assiniboine rivers and the Whiteshell Lakes areas are at “major risk of flooding,” the province said, noting conditions in the Souris River basin will affect the lower Assiniboine River in western Manitoba.

Overland flooding risk, meanwhile, is “moderate” for the Interlake region, along the upper Assiniboine River and the province’s north including the Saskatchewan River.

Manitoba’s major lakes “remain a concern,” the province added, and current river flows and other lake levels are “normal to above normal for this time of year.”

The early melt seen in the middle of February in the southern portion of the Red River basin has “diminished” most of the snowpack south of Grand Forks in North Dakota, the province noted.

“This has slightly reduced the potential for flood flows on the Red River in Manitoba, but it has also left the soil saturated and prone to high runoff volumes from future precipitation.”

Saskatchewan’s Water Security Agency on Feb. 9 released a preliminary outlook which suggests “below-normal” runoff potential in most of the province — except in its southeast, which includes the Assiniboine, Souris and Qu’Appelle river basins.

The Manitoba government said Monday its plans and preparations will be based on unfavourable weather conditions and “the scenario of highest flood risk,” and it will work with municipal emergency management teams to review existing emergency response plans and share information.

“At this time, we encourage communities to continue with preparatory measures such as ensuring emergency protocols are in place,” Infrastructure Minister Blaine Pedersen said in Monday’s release.

Information on preparing rural Manitoba properties and beef and hog farms for flood conditions is available online. Flood information seminars are also to be held at later dates in Morris, Brandon and Selkirk, Pedersen said.

The province’s second and final flood outlook is due out in late March. –– AGCanada.com Network

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“We have a shared history with the bison. Our people were almost wiped out just as the bison were. So, we have a connection with them and they are part of our culture and are included in many of our ceremonies,” said Sioux Valley Dakota Nation Chief Vincent Tacan.

In early May, Sioux Valley First Nation reserve, which is located 50 kms west of Brandon near Griswold, welcomed a white male bison calf into its herd of 25.

The calf and its mother are believed to be two of three white bison in Manitoba. The third, Blizzard, resides at the Assiniboine Park Zoo.

“I don’t know what the odds are to have a white buffalo calf. But from what I understand it is pretty rare,” Tacan said. “This is certainly not a fluke of nature, this is not an albino calf. If you look at this calf, its eyes are not pink. It is a true white bison.”

According to the U.S. National Bison Association, one out of every 10 million bison are born white.

The calf’s mother was gifted to the reserve by the Assiniboine Park Zoo in 2009 because of the animal’s cultural significance.

When the white bison first arrived at the reserve, Tacan says that many thought that she would never have a calf. But, despite speculation she calved two brown calves prior to this white calf.

“I am not a veterinarian or bison expert but one of the guys I was talking to thought that this happened because we switched bulls after her first two calves and that the mother’s genes were stronger in this calf,” Tacan said.

Spiritually significant

The white bison is considered sacred or spiritually significant in several Native American religions, a belief that is followed by a number of residents in the Sioux Valley community.

Tacan explains the story of the white bison calf woman, where two Dakota Nation warriors were out hunting and the white bison woman appeared to them in the distance with a herd.

“The story goes that the first warrior had bad thoughts against her and was turned to dust. The other was afraid and the woman told him to go home and get ready and she would come to their camp and have something to share. He went home and got ready and the woman appeared and shared her purpose and taught them the ceremonies and traditions. It is a significant story that our people tell and today, people still follow some of those customs and beliefs.”

Many First Nations in North America believe that a white bison is the most sacred living thing on earth and will often visit the animal for prayer and religious rituals.

The community has seen a number of visitors who have come to view the calf and leave tobacco offerings wrapped in colourful flags that now line the fence of the animal’s enclosure.

“Some people go to a church and speak with a minister or whatever they choose. But in our culture, we take tobacco offerings and flags and hang them at the buffalo site. We have quite a few people who visit the bison, from both on and off of the reserve,” Tacan said.

In Aboriginal culture, the birth of a white bison is also a sign of hope, an indication of good times to come and in many cases it is considered to be a prophetic sign.

Tacan says he isn’t necessarily too spiritual himself but certainly believes the white bison that was gifted to the community in 2009 has brought positive changes.

“Six years ago when I became chief I basically inherited a mess. The finances were in bad shape and a lot of aspects of the reserve were struggling. I noticed that when the buffalo came in things began to improve and I really do believe that something is going on here,” he said.

“Our debt has been cleared up, we have a better relationship with our surrounding neighbours, we are starting to educate our people on and off the reserve, there are cross-cultural exchanges happening, and we have been able to start a significant economic development project. There have been a lot of positive things happen here and some that I can’t explain but it seems to be going along a parallel track with the bison.”

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