The global soybean market will become increasingly dependent on South American supplies in coming months, following a lower-than-expected U. S. soybean crop, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said Nov. 4.
The U. S. Department of Agriculture on Oct. 28 reduced its forecast of the U. S. soybean crop by 1.5 per cent in an unprecedented correction.
“The downward revision of the U. S. soybean crop has reduced Northern Hemisphere oilseed production below earlier expectations,” Oil World said. “This will raise the global dependence on South American supplies in the second half of this season.”
Oil World forecast Brazil’s soybean crop this season will fall to 60 million tonnes from 60.1 million tonnes last season and Paraguay’s crop this season will drop to 6.6 million tonnes from 6.81 million tonnes.
Argentina’s crop is forecast to rise to 49.5 million tonnes from 47 million tonnes last season.
“Due to the persisting soil moisture deficits and the sharply reduced fertilizer application, these estimates could turn out optimistic, despite higher plantings,” Oil World said.