Well-above-average temperatures to continue

After a brief period of average temperatures last weekend, which really felt cold, it looks like we’ll be returning to much-above-average temperatures during this forecast period. While it looks like temperatures will be warm, it also looks like it could be fairly wet, with plenty of potential storm systems poised to affect our region.

The first of these systems, which moved through early this week, will be pulling out by Wednesday. While things will be a little cool Wednesday, a building upper ridge of high pressure, combined with low pressure developing to our west, will produce a southerly flow, allowing temperatures to moderate into the low teens for highs by Thursday. These mild temperatures look like they will stick around right through the weekend.

Along with these mild temperatures there will be plenty of chances for precipitation. The models are having a tough time trying to figure out just how to deal with all of the energy developing to our west. They currently show a fairly strong area of low pressure moving through southern or central Manitoba late in the weekend and early next week. It is hard to figure out the exact track and intensity this system will have, but it appears a large portion of agricultural Manitoba will see some significant rain from it.

Interestingly, the models have pointed toward a major cooldown after this system, but over the last few model runs they have been trending away from this and now show a rebuilding ridge of high pressure and continued mild temperatures for the second half of next week. The models haven’t entirely given up on trying to cool us down, as the medium-range forecasts show colder air moving in right around Easter.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -4 to +9 C; lows, -15 to -1 C. Probability of precipitation falling as rain: 30 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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