The first part of last week’s forecast played out pretty much as expected, but the second part of the forecast, well that was a bit of a bust! The upper area of low pressure did cross north-central Manitoba over the weekend, but it lost a fair bit of its energy as it did so. The result was that there was not much of a push of cold air behind the system, so temperatures for the first part of the week remained fairly warm.
For this forecast period, we’ll have another upper low to deal with. These upper lows can be tough to figure out. This low is expected to travel across southern Manitoba on Wednesday and Thursday of this week, bringing with it a mix of sun and clouds along with a fairly good chance of seeing the odd shower or thunderstorm. The current model runs have been pulling back on the amount of showers and thunderstorms, but as I said, these lows can be tricky and a lot will depend on its exact track and when it crosses our region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday and Thursday mainly due to the increase in cloud cover, with highs expected in the mid-20s.
By Friday the upper low should have moved off to the East and we will once again see the ridge of high pressure begin to rebuild across our region. This will bring a return to mostly sunny skies over the weekend, with highs moving back to the upper 20s to low 30s. Monday and Tuesday of next week are looking like they’ll be hot and muggy as moisture increases. Along with this moisture will come a good chance of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.
Looking further ahead the models are hinting at a slow cooldown starting late next week, but that is a long way off and plenty can change between now and then.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C Lows, 9 to 16 C.