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Warm, then cooling trend

It looks like this forecast period will start off a little quieter than last week. After seeing several lows pass through our region over the last week bringing more clouds than sun, plenty of showers, rain and even a little snow, it looks as if a ridge of high pressure will build in during this week.

This ridge should bring plenty of sunshine, along with fairly mild temperatures for Wednesday through to Friday and maybe even Saturday. With the sunshine we should see high temperatures once again at or even above the usual temperature range for this time of the year. It doesn’t look as if we’ll break any records, but the way this year is going, who knows?

By the end of the week a strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop over Montana and then move northeastward over the weekend. This system will be associated with plenty of warm air, which means we should see mostly rain with it. The best chances of rain look to be over western and central regions. Depending on how strong this system gets and its exact timing, the higher elevations over western regions could see some wet snow late on Sunday or early Monday.

Once this system pushes through, the overall pattern looks as if it will undergo a shift. The weather models have been trying to forecast this shift for several weeks now and show a more seasonal pattern with cooler temperatures. With each new model run this pattern shift keeps getting pushed further and further into the future and the extent of the cooling is less and less. This means the overall confidence that this shift will occur early next week is pretty low.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 0 to +13 C; lows: -10 to +1 C. Probability of precipitation falling as rain: 45 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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