Strategie Grains cuts EU wheat crop outlook again after dry spring

Consultancy Strategie Grains June 11 further reduced its forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest in the European Union, saying it expected a hot, dry spring to have hurt crops before rains resumed in June.

In a monthly cereal report, the French analyst lowered its estimate of 2020 soft wheat production in the EU plus Britain to 130.9 million tonnes, down two million tonnes from its May forecast and now 11 per cent below last year’s output.

Wheat crops in northwest Europe endured soggy conditions during autumn and winter, which curbed sowings, before suffering from spring drought.

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“The rapid changeover from one extreme of the climatic spectrum to the other does not bode well for this summer’s harvests,” Strategie Grains said.

“Admittedly, the fall in the mercury and increased rainfall at the start of June is beneficial in terms of grain filling – but much of the damage is irreversible,” it said, referring to wheat.

Strategie Grains made a similar-size cut to its EU soft wheat harvest forecast last month and has lowered its outlook every month since its initial projection of 140.5 million tonnes in December.

This month’s cut included a one-million-tonne decrease in expected French production, now seen at 32 million tonnes.

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