International Grains Council raises several key projections

Total global carry-over for 2020-21 is now seen at 635 million tonnes

In the latest monthly report from the International Grains Council (IGC) there were several increases in production and carry-over projections.

The council released its report on June 25, predicting a 2.85 per cent increase in total global grain production from 2019-20 to 2.237 billion tonnes in 2020-21. Compared to the council’s May report, that’s a seven-million-tonne increase.

Also, the IGC increased the total global carry-over from 615.0 million tonnes in 2019-20 to 635.0 million tonnes in 2020-21. The June report upped the council’s estimate by 1.4 per cent from its May forecast.

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Among the top five grain producers, the United States remained the world’s largest in the coming crop year at 458.9 million tonnes, ahead of China at 404.2 million. The European Union is to be third at 283.1 million tonnes, followed by India at 153.0 million and Russia 120.4 million.

Global wheat production was projected to further increase in 2020-21 from the 761.9 million tonnes in 2019-20. Increased production, especially in Australia and Russia, were expected to outweigh declines such as in the EU. In its June report, the IGC upped its forecast to 767.6 million tonnes, which was a gain of 1.5 million from its May report.

The leading wheat producers in 2020-21 were projected to be China at 135.0 million tonnes, the EU at 128.4 million, and India with 107.2 million. Next would be Russia at 79.0 million and the U.S. with 51.1 million.

The council’s expected wheat carry-over for 2020-21 slipped 400,000 tonnes to 289.9 million, but that’s about 6.0 per cent higher than in 2019-20.

The June projection for global corn production rose to 1.172 billion tonnes, up by a quarter percentage point from May. That would be a 4.9 per cent increase compared to production in 2019-20.

The leading corn-producing countries in 2020-21 would be the U.S. with 392.5 million tonnes, China at 261.0 million and Brazil at 100.4 million. The EU was fourth at 68.1 million and Argentina ranked fifth at 55.5 million tonnes.

The IGC increased its forecast for the 2020-21 corn carry-over by 2.6 per cent from May to 296.1 million tonnes in June. That’s still under the 299.1 million tonnes estimated for 2019-20.

The council slightly increased its projection for global soybean production from May to 364.0 million tonnes in the June report. That would now make for an 8.1 per cent jump from the 336.7 million tonnes of soybean production in the previous year.

The leading soybean producers for 2020-21 are projected to be Brazil at 128.5 million tonnes, followed by the U.S. at 112.5 million and Argentina with 53.5 million. At a distance behind, China and India then round out the top five with 18.5 million and 12.9 million tonnes respectively.

The June report pegged the 2020-21 soybean carry-over to be higher than the 43.9 million tonnes in 2019-20. In May, the IGC predicted the 2020-21 carry-over to be 41.3 million tonnes, but in June increased it to 45.4 million.

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Glen Hallick - MarketsFarm

Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. He previously reported for Postmedia newspapers in southern Manitoba and the province’s Interlake region.

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