Canola ending stocks forecast lowered

Canola ending stocks forecast lowered

Canadian canola ending stocks for the 2020-21 marketing year could be their tightest in eight years, according to updated supply/demand data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released late Dec. 18.

The government agency cut its forecast for canola ending stocks for 2020-21 to only 1.20 million tonnes. That was down by roughly a million tonnes from the November forecast of 2.25 million tonnes and compares with the year-ago carry-out of 3.13 million. If realized, the carry-out would be the tightest since 2013, when canola ending stocks came in at only 588,000 tonnes.

The stocks adjustment was due to a decline in production from earlier expectations and an increase in domestic usage. Projected canola exports for 2020-21 were left unchanged at 10.20 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, Canadian wheat ending stocks for 2020-21 were raised by 500,000 tonnes from November, to 6.80 million tonnes. That compares with the 5.50 million tonnes carried over from 2019-20, but would be only up slightly from the 10-year average of 6.63 million tonnes.

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Phil Franz-Warkentin - MarketsFarm

Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.



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