Shares of the world wheat market in the upcoming 2009-10 crop year are expected to decline for both Canada and the U. S. from 2008-09, with the EU-27, Ukraine, Russia and Argentina picking up most of that decline.
The five top major wheat-exporting countries include the U. S., Canada, Australia, the EU-27 and Argentina, according to Ian Flagg, a market analyst with the U. S. Wheat Associates in Virginia.
Flagg noted that these traditional five largest wheat-exporting nations generally account for roughly 70 per cent to 80 per cent of the world trade.
Global output of wheat among the eight top producing and exporting countries was seen hitting 332.5 million tonnes in 2009-10, which would be down from the 377.2 million produced by these outlets during the 2008-09 season, said David Boyes, a commodity risk manager with the Canadian Wheat Board.
The 27 countries which make up the European Union were expected to remain the top producer of wheat in 2009-10, accounting for 133.6 million tonnes, Boyes said. In 2008-09, the EU-27 produced 152.2 million tonnes of wheat.
Canada’s share of the world wheat market was seen declining as domestic production of wheat declines. Increased demand for vegetable oils, especially canola oil for human consumption and biodiesel output, along with increased demand for barley was seen reducing wheat area and in turn limiting wheat export growth.
The U. S. share of the wheat market was seen declining in view of lower domestic production, increased competition and large carry-out stocks of wheat in most competitor countries.
Australia’s wheat production was expected to climb to 22.8 million tonnes from 19.8 million in 2008-09.
Ukraine was expected to account for 17.5 million tonnes of the 2009-10 wheat total, but that level will be down from the 24.9 million produced in 2008-09, Boyes said.
Canada’s all wheat production in 2009-10 was seen declining to 23.930 million tonnes, from the 2008-09 level of 28.611 million, Boyes said. Reduced seeded area in the spring of 2009 in Canada amid disappointing price projections for the crop among producers were associated with the drop in output.
Meanwhile, USDA chief economist Joe Glauber said wheat-planted area in the U. S. in the spring of 2009 will decline 5.1 million acres from the 2008 level to 58.0 million.
Winter wheat-seeded area was expected to decline 4.2 million acres while spring wheat (including durum) was seen dropping 900,000 acres or five per cent. Soft Red Winter wheat-seeded area was forecast to be down 2.9 million acres or 26 per cent from last year’s 12-year high as lower cash prices and late row crop harvesting limited seedings last fall, Glauber said.
Hard Red Winter wheat-seeded area was projected to be down 1.1 million acres or four per cent, with declines in prices and delays in fall harvesting in the Central U. S. Plains behind the drop. In the Northern U. S. Plains, spring wheat area was seen declining in reaction to increased soybean plantings, Glauber said.
Boyes pegged wheat output in the U. S. at 57.8 million tonnes in 2009-10, down from the previous year’s 67.9 million.
Boyes projected world wheat trade in 2009-10 at an estimated 111.0 million which would be down from his 2008-09 forecast of 114.9 million.