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With seeding intentions clear, traders now watching the skies

Strength in the Chicago soy complex also helped lift canola values

New Canadian and U.S. estimates of canola and soybean acres were generally supportive for canola futures.

Acreage data from government agencies supported canola values during the week ended July 2.

On June 29, Statistics Canada estimated canola acreage across the country at 20.778 million acres, which was at the higher end of trade estimates, though slightly lower than the 20.956 million acres seeded the previous year. Canola prices were supported by reports of lower seeded acreage, with nearby new-crop contracts closing higher by $5.10 at $473.60 on Monday.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture also released its estimate for planted soybean area in the U.S., at a total of 83.8 million acres — a slight increase from previous estimates but below pre-report expectations. U.S. farmers planted 76.1 million acres of soybeans in 2019.

Subsequent strength in the Chicago soy complex following the report was supportive of canola prices. At mid-week, nearby soyoil contracts increased by about half of a penny, and maintained that strength throughout the week.

With a marginally better idea of seeded canola acreage across the Prairies, market participants will turn their attention to growing conditions and potential crop yields.

Areas of the Prairies have received significant rainfall, with flood warnings and high-water advisories across southwestern and western Manitoba. Northern Alberta has also seen considerable precipitation. However, the extent of the damage done to crops is not yet clear.

The Canadian dollar was slightly stronger throughout the week, keeping some pressure on canola prices. The dollar closed at 73.61 U.S. cents on Thursday.

Canola prices started the week at $473.60 per tonne, and steadily gained throughout the week with a break on Wednesday for Canada Day. On Thursday, the November contract closed at $476.40 per tonne.

About the author

Glacier MarketsFarm

Marlo Glass

Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.



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