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North American Grains/Oilseed Review: Canola ends mixed on technical trade

By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Apr. 11 – The ICE Futures Canada canola market finished mixed on Tuesday in intermonth trading with the two front-month contracts taking strength from ideas canola stocks are dwindling away in Canada.

Large funds were rolling out of their short positions, according to a trader in Winnipeg.

“The May canola contract is firming up here on slow cash moves from the farmers,” he added.

Rain is expected to fall throughout key regions of the Prairies in the next two weeks, which underpinned the market amid expectations for seeding delays.

However, the more-deferred canola contracts were weighed down by losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil and soybeans.

Oilseed acreage in North America is expected to be very large, which undermined prices.

Crush margins declined in Western Canada.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.

Around 38,701 canola contracts were traded on Tuesday, which
compares with Monday when around 23,504 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 31,460 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade managed to recover from larger losses earlier in the session to settle with only small declines of one to two cents per bushel on Tuesday.

The USDA’s monthly supply/demand report was somewhat bearish, as both US and world soybean stocks estimates were revised higher. Upward revisions to South American production also weighed on values.

The government agency now sees world soybean ending stocks for 2016/17 at 87.4 million tonnes, which would be well above the 82.8 million forecast in March.

Soybeans briefly fell to their lowest levels of the past year, but some support was uncovered to the downside.

SOYOIL futures were down on Tuesday.

SOYMEAL futures posted small gains on Tuesday.

CORN futures in Chicago were steady to down one cent per bushel at Tuesday’s close, as the USDA data did little to move the market.

The USDA left its US corn ending stocks estimate unchanged at 2.32 billion bushels in today’s report, while raising the world corn ending stocks projection by 2.3 million tonnes, to 223 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were up by four to six cents per bushel on Tuesday, recovering from earlier losses despite the relatively bearish USDA report.

The USDA raised its US and world wheat ending stocks forecasts, with total world carryout now forecast at 252.3 million tonnes by the agency. That’s up by about 2.4 million tonnes from the March estimate.

The US winter wheat crop was rated 51 per cent good-to-excellent in the latest weekly USDA report, which was down from 59 per cent in that category at the same point the previous year. However, conditions varied widely on a state-by-state basis.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
2017-04-11 13:19
Price Change
May494.504.80
Jul494.802.60
Nov479.20-2.80
Jan481.60-2.70

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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