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North American Grains/Oilseed Review – Canola drops with bearish USDA report

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

WINNIPEG, August 10 (CNS) – The soybean market plunged 24 to 33 cents after the USDA raised its estimate for this year’s crop to 4.4 billion bushels.

As well, the erratic weather in the US Midwest has made it tough for many participants to know what quality the crop will be.

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, August 10 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market ended lower on Thursday, after a report from the USDA came out indicating this year’s US soybean harvest could be larger than expected.

The USDA pegged the crop at 4.4 billion bushels, which surpassed what most analysts had been expecting.

Steep losses in US soyoil were bearish for the canola market.

Recent rains and cooler temperatures in Western Canada have been favorable for the crop, which weighed on prices.

However, the Canadian dollar was weaker compared to its US counterpart, which made canola more attractive to out-of-country buyers.

The summer heat wave has likely cut into canola yields, which was supportive.

Around 21,869 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 10,584 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 1,932 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Farmers in the Western Plains have had too much heat while some areas in the eastern plains have had too much rain.

Soybean stockpiles in the US for 2017/18 were pegged at 475 million bushels, which was bearish.

The corn market also fell, dropping 12 to 15 cents after the USDA raised its estimate for this year’s corn harvest.

The agency pegged this year’s crop at 14.2 billion bushels.

That is definitely lower than last year’s 15.2 billion bushel harvest but it was still higher than expected.

The USDA also projected more stockpiles of US corn than previously thought at 2.3 billion bushels.

Wheat ended 16 to 19 cents lower.

The market took spillover losses from corn and soybeans.

The agency pegged spring wheat in 2017/18 at 402 million bushels which was higher than most analysts thought heading into the report.

There are ideas baking costs could get pricier for consumers due to the shortage of high protein wheat.

Some farmers in the US Plains have begun to bale their wheat for livestock, due to the low quality.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
2017-08-10 13:19
Price Change
Nov506.20-5.00
Jan511.20-5.30
Mar514.90-5.30
May517.10-4.50
Milling Wheat
2017-08-10 14:24
Price Change
Oct277.00-8.00
Dec280.00-8.00
Mar285.00-7.00
May285.00-6.00
Durum
2017-08-10 14:24
Price Change
Oct320.007.00
Dec321.007.00
Mar296.001.00
May293.000.00
New Barley
2017-08-10 14:24
Price Change
Oct145.000.00
Dec141.000.00
Mar141.000.00
May141.000.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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