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North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola Hits Two-Month Lows

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, March 15 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were weaker on Wednesday, hitting their lowest levels in two months as losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil and a firmer tone in the Canadian dollar weighed on prices.

Larger-than-expected US soyoil stocks, despite a smaller-than-expected monthly crush, accounted for some of the weakness in soyoil that spilled into the canola market on Wednesday.

Chart-based selling added to the declines, as the nearby technical bias is pointed lower for canola. The May contract moved below nearby support and hit fresh two month lows in the process as some stops were hit on the way down.

However, solid end-user demand from both exporters and domestic crushers helped limit the losses, especially as traders expect to see tightening supplies going forward.

About 21,251 canola contracts were traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 20,082 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,242 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed about one cent per bushel weaker on Wednesday, as pressure from South America continued.

Brazilian and Argentinian supplies are expected to cut into demand for US oilseeds, which is bearish.

US seeding intentions estimates are at a record high, which furthered the downside.

Soybean planting intentions are expected to hit 88.825 million acres, the largest ever, a survey conducted by Allendale, Inc. said.

However, as prices hit fresh lows technical buying could underpin values in coming sessions.

SOYOIL prices closed weaker on Wednesday.

SOYMEAL closed mixed on Wednesday, with front contracts gathering moderate advances while deferred contracts decline.

CORN futures closed about one cent per bushel higher on Wednesday.

US seeding intentions estimates compiled by Allendale said corn seeding could be about 90.018 million acres, which is large, but well off the 94.004 million acres the USDA says was seeded in 2016.

Reports of strong Asian demand for the grain were also bullish.

WHEAT closed four to five cents per bushel stronger on Wednesday, propped up by ideas that US wheat has become competitive.

Prices for the grain have fallen low enough to be affordable to international buyers, which is bullish.

Analysts say fund buying could underpin values through the end of the week.

Commodity Future Prices

2017-03-15 10:47
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Milling Wheat
2017-03-15 00:00
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2017-03-15 00:00
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New Barley
2017-03-15 00:00
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton