North American grain/oilseed review: Canola ends lower after USDA data

By Jade Markus and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, March 9 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola closed weaker on Thursday, feeling spill-over pressure from losses in the US soy complex.

Soybean futures declined following United States Department of Agriculture data, which raised the country’s soybean ending stocks for this marketing year by 15 million bushels to 435 million bushels.

Deferred contracts saw sharper losses on Thursday, as Canadian farmers are expected to seed a large amount of canola this summer.

However, canola still sits in fields in Western Canada, and the quality of those crops is in question.

About 12,539 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 13,443 contracts changed hands.

Durum and barley futures were untraded and unchanged, while milling wheat was revised lower after the close.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

CORN futures in Chicago declined four to five cents per bushel on Thursday after the USDA hiked its prediction for Brazil’s harvest to 91.5 million tonnes from February’s estimate of 86.5 million.

Corn production in Argentina is also expected to rise slightly, which contributed to the bearish tone.

World stockpiles are expected to rise to 220.7 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 217.6 million.

On the other side, Japan purchased 120,000 tonnes of corn from private exporters in the US, which was supportive for the market.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade finished eight to ten cents per bushel weaker on Thursday, due to forecasts calling for higher-than-expected soybean production in South America. The USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at 108 million tonnes, which compares to its previous target of 104 million. Today’s prediction was also significantly higher than analysts’ expectations calling for 106.1 million tonnes.

The USDA also bumped up US ending stocks to 435 million bushels from the old estimate of 420 million.

The agency increased its forecast of world ending stocks. The USDA projects them at 82.2 million tonnes, which is up 2.4 million tonnes from the last estimate.

SOYOIL futures fell 43 points in most contracts Thursday.

SOYMEAL futures finished lower on the day.

WHEAT futures in Chicago dropped three cents per bushel in most contracts on Thursday due to forecasts calling for rain to fall in dry regions of the US Southern Plains.

The USDA’s estimate for world wheat stockpiles was slightly larger than what analysts had been expecting, which was bearish.

However, the agency did lower its estimate of US ending stocks by 10 million bushels, which limited the losses.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
2017-03-09 13:19
Price Change
May526.50-0.70
Jul528.90-0.50
Nov505.90-1.30
Jan511.60-1.30
Milling Wheat
2017-03-09 13:57
Price Change
May235.003.00
Jul237.002.00
Oct229.002.00
Dec232.001.00
Durum
2017-03-09 13:57
Price Change
May282.000.00
Jul281.000.00
Oct268.000.00
Dec268.000.00
New Barley
2017-03-09 13:57
Price Change
May137.000.00
Jul138.000.00
Oct138.000.00
Dec138.000.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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