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North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down, but off lows

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, May 11 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were weaker on Thursday, with fund selling a feature, as bearish technical signals and ideas the market was looking overbought had speculators liquidating some of their long positions.

Light hedge pressure and a lack of significant end-user demand contributed to the losses, according to participants, with buyers only coming forward on a scale-down basis.

However, canola held above chart support and managed to finish well off its lows for the session. The slow pace of spring seeding across much of Western Canada underpinned the futures, with more rains in the forecast for parts of the Prairies later this week.

About 17,556 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 14,834 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 6,144 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although wheat prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade finished two to four cents per bushel lower on Thursday as Brazil’s agricultural wing Conab raised its estimate for the country’s soybean crop. The agency pegged it at 113 million tonnes, well above analysts’ estimates of 111.8 million tonnes.

The market was still reeling from yesterday’s USDA report, which hiked world soybean ending stocks to 90.14 million tonnes, from 87.41 tonnes in April.

Light commercial buying and solid weekly export numbers helped limit the losses.

SOYOIL futures finished higher on Thursday.

SOYMEAL futures were weaker, with spreading against soyoil a feature.

CORN futures in Chicago lost roughly four cents per bushel due to poor demand.

Conab hiked its forecast for the crop in Brazil by 1.3 million tonnes to 92.8 million, which exceeded analysts’ estimates of 95.1 million.

The market was also undermined by poor weekly export sales in the US. Analysts estimated that 700,000 to 900,000 tonnes of corn would be shipped out, but the final total was just 278,000.

WHEAT futures in Chicago rose one to two cents on rumours Ukraine could have a smaller crop this year due to drought.
There are some estimates that this year’s winter wheat crop in the US could be 25 per cent less than last year, which buoyed values.

However, weekly export sales were slow, which dragged on values.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
2017-05-11 13:19
Price Change
Jul519.30-0.60
Nov502.40-1.70
Jan507.40-1.30
Mar511.80-1.20
Milling Wheat
2017-05-11 14:05
Price Change
Jul238.00-1.00
Oct239.00-1.00
Dec242.00-2.00
Mar247.00-1.00
Durum
2017-05-11 14:05
Price Change
Jul273.000.00
Oct267.000.00
Dec267.000.00
Mar267.000.00
New Barley
2017-05-11 14:05
Price Change
Jul138.000.00
Oct140.000.00
Dec140.000.00
Mar140.000.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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