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North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola up, but oilseeds lack direction

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, August 20 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were higher on Tuesday, as bids lacked direction in choppy trading.

One trader commented that lack has been common in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil as well.

Another trader theorized Prairie farmers haven’t been selling their canola because the Canadian government extended the Cash Advance Program.

“That takes away the need to sell,” he stated.
While crop conditions remain generally favourable, as August progresses, the threat of frost increases. Below normal temperatures are expected next week on the Prairies.

There were 12,010 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 7,485 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 4,934 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 451.40 up 1.20
Jan 458.90 up 1.20
Mar 465.30 up 1.00
May 470.70 up 0.90

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Tuesday, due to lower average pod counts on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

The western leg of the tour found an average 833 pods within three by three-foot squares in South Dakota fields on Monday. That’s down from last year’s 1,025 pods. The tour’s eastern leg in Ohio averaged 764 pods compared to 1,248 last year. The tour continues until Thursday.

In the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report released yesterday, soybean crop conditions rated 53 per cent good to excellent, down one point from the previous week.

Soybeans blooming were at 90 per cent, eight points up from the previous week’s report, but six points back of the five-year average. Soybeans setting pods reached 68 per cent, from 54 per cent last week, but behind the average of 85 per cent.

Soybean and Corn Advisor’s Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his estimate of U.S. soybean production for this year at 92.26 million tonnes. The USDA, in its August supply and demand report, forecast 100.16 million tonnes.

CORN futures were weaker on Tuesday, as rain fell or was forecast to fall over dry pockets of the U.S. Corn Belt.

The Pro Farmer Tour’s western leg projected corn yields in South Dakota to be approximately 154 bushels per acre, which was below last year’s estimate of 178 bushels. The eastern leg in Ohio also forecast 154 bushels per acre, below the 180 bushels the tour estimated last year.

The USDA reported corn conditions were 56 per cent good to excellent, down one point from the previous week. Corn reached 95 per cent silking, up from 90 per cent the previous week, but behind of the average of 99 per cent.

Corn doughing was at 55 per cent, a gain of 16 points from the previous week, but 21 points off of the five-average. Corn dented was at 15 per cent, about double from last week, but half of the average.

There was no change in Cordonnier’s estimate of U.S. corn production in 2019 of 327.17 million tonnes. The USDA’s projection was at 353.09 million tonnes in its August report.

Brazil has substantially increased its corn exports with 20.7 million tonnes compared to 7.5 million a year ago. The country’s August exports are on pace to surpass 8.8 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were lower on Tuesday, with small declines in Minneapolis and larges losses in Chicago and Kansas City.

Spring wheat conditions were 60 per cent good to excellent, up one point from last week. The spring wheat harvest was 16 per cent complete, double from the previous week, but far behind the five-year average of 49 per cent. The winter wheat harvest hit 93 per cent complete, up four points from last week, but five behind the average.

Japan issued a tender for more than 110,000 tonnes of food-quality wheat with about half each coming from the U.S. and Canada.

China has taken its first shipment of French wheat in five years. A loaded bulk carrier was set to leave the Port of Dunkirk for southern China today.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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