By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, August 21 (MarketsFarm) – ICE Futures canola contracts were stronger at midday Wednesday, which was a surprise to one Winnipeg-based trader.
“The markets are at the stage of not knowing where to go. We’re on the verge of harvest and we really don’t know what the crop looks like,” he stated.
With the exception of southern Manitoba, especially around the Winnipeg area, the canola harvest “is still a ways away,” the trader said, adding local crop appears to be in good shape.
He noted crush values were lower, at around C$78 per tonne above the futures, having been at C$90 a week ago.
“That indicates we’re holding strong, relative to the U.S., but the U.S. is on the verge of going lower,” the trader commented, noting there was little activity in the spreads.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its August production estimates this morning and kept its canola estimate at 18.575 million tonnes from the July report. Canola production in 2018/19 was at 20.343 million tonnes.
The AAFC also kept its export projection at 9.000 million tonnes, which remained 500,000 under last year’s exports. Ending stocks decreased to 3.775 million tonnes from July’s estimate of 3.975 million, but above last year’s 3.700 million.
Statistics Canada releases its survey-based forecast on August 28.
Approximately 8,500 canola contracts were traded as of 10:39 CDT.
Prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne at 10:39 CDT:
Canola Nov 453.40 up 2.00
Jan 460.80 up 1.90
Mar 467.70 up 2.40
May 473.40 up 2.70