GRAINS-Wheat to 3-1/2 month low ahead of monthly USDA report

* USDA seen raising U.S. wheat ending stocks forecasts

* Corn pressured by favorable U.S. crop weather

* Soy firmer as trade expects USDA to show tighter U.S. stocks (Recasts with updated prices, quotes; changes byline and dateline, previous SINGAPORE/PARIS)

By Julie Ingwersen

CHICAGO, June 10 (Reuters) – U.S. wheat futures fell to a 3-1/2 month low on Tuesday ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report that analysts expect will show rising domestic wheat stocks.

Corn futures fell on favorable crop weather in the U.S. Midwest, but soybeans rose on expectations the USDA’s June supply/demand report on Wednesday will show tightening old-crop soy inventories.

At the Chicago Board of Trade as of 11:00 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT), July wheat was down 11-1/2 cents at $6.01 per bushel after hitting $6.00-3/4, the lowest spot price since Feb. 28.

Wheat sagged as traders positioned for USDA’s report. Analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that USDA would raise its forecast of U.S. 2014/15 wheat ending stocks by 2.2 percent, to 552 million bushels, from 540 million in May, and raise its 2013/14 stocks forecast as well.

CBOT July wheat has fallen about 19 percent since early May on prospects for plentiful global wheat supplies and stiff export competition as the Northern Hemisphere readies for harvest.

“We do have some isolated issues with the hard red winter crop in the U.S., but when you look at the global picture we do see stocks building in 2014/15,” said Graydon Chong, senior grains analyst at Rabobank.

Corn was under pressure from good weather and continued concern about China halting imports of U.S. distillers dried grains (DDGs), a corn byproduct used in feed.

CBOT July corn was down 3-1/2 cents at $4.47-1/2 a bushel, but stayed above Monday’s multi-month low of $4.45-1/2.

“You’ve got funds still long, and you’ve got no threats of weather. And China decided not to take DDGs any more. You are being hit on all fronts right now,” said Jim Gerlach of A/C Trading in Fowler, Indiana.

Soybeans bucked the weak trend. July soybeans rose 12 cents at $14.69 per bushel and gained against new-crop November , which was up 5-3/4 cents at $12.30.

The moves reflected positioning ahead of USDA’s June supply/demand report. Analysts expect USDA to lower its U.S. 2013/14 soybean ending stocks forecast from its May figure of 130 million bushels, already a 10-year low.

“Traders are bull-spreading in the beans and meal in anticipation of a tightening old crop S+D (supply/demand) balance and more abundant new crop S+D balance reported in tomorrow’s June USDA Supply-Demand Reports,” Helen Pound, a vice president with KCG Futures in Minneapolis, said in a report.

Prices at 11:01 a.m. CDT (1601 GMT)                          
                              LAST      NET    PCT     YTD
                                        CHG    CHG     CHG
 CBOT corn                  447.50    -3.50  -0.8%    6.0%
 CBOT soy                  1469.00    12.00   0.8%   11.9%
 CBOT meal                  489.70     7.50   1.6%   11.9%
 CBOT soyoil                 38.93    -0.35  -0.9%    0.3%
 CBOT wheat                 601.25   -11.25  -1.8%   -0.7%
 CBOT rice                 1404.50   -10.00  -0.7%   -9.4%
 EU wheat                   190.50    -0.25  -0.1%   -8.9%
 US crude                   104.46     0.05   0.1%    6.1%
 Dow Jones                  16,930      -13  -0.1%    2.1%
 Gold                      1260.60     9.02   0.7%    4.6%
 Euro/dollar                1.3542  -0.0050  -0.4%   -0.8%
 Dollar Index              80.8240   0.1710   0.2%    1.0%
 Baltic Freight               1004        5   0.5%  -55.9%

 (Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral and Sybille de La
Hamaide; editing by Richard Pullin, Jason Neely and Tom Brown)

About the author



Stories from our other publications