Citing a "relatively tight" supply-and-demand picture and a pledge for higher up-front payments, CWB has pegged the initial payment on its new pool for for No. 1 canola at $475 a tonne.
The former Canadian Wheat Board on Tuesday announced the canola initials for its Harvest Pool, including $475 ($10.77 per bushel) for No. 1 Canada as well as $462 ($10.48/bu.) for canola grading No. 2 Canada.
The effective date for both initial payments was Saturday, Sept. 1. CWB’s 2012-13 Harvest Pool sign-up deadline is Oct. 31, 2012; its marketing period will run from harvest through to June 30, 2013.
CWB, which said in July it will dial up its initial payments to about 75 per cent of its expected Harvest Pool returns, set the bar for the new canola initials at 74 per cent of its current canola pool return outlook (PRO).
CWB’s recently-announced PROs for No. 1 and 2 Canada canola are $640 and $627 per tonne respectively.
Ending stocks of canola in 2011-12 are forecast at about 600,000 tonnes, CWB said Tuesday, and the supply-and-demand balance will still be "strained" in 2012-13 due to strong domestic and offshore demand.
World soybean prices remain high due to U.S. drought and China’s demand "has not yet shown signs of dissipating," CWB said.
Canada’s canola crop is estimated at 14.7 million tonnes, "somewhat less than expectations," CWB said. "Given anticipated demand, there is very little chance that ending stocks will increase year-on-year."
Given the "dire" U.S. corn situation, CWB said it expects an "intensified ‘battle for acres’" from late February to early April, and that’s also expected to be "positive to the oilseed complex."