CBOT weekly outlook: U.S. corn, soybean carryovers could increase

Declines expected for wheat stocks

The USDA building in Washington, D.C. (Art Wager/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — Ahead of the next supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), expectations are for corn and soybean ending stocks to increase, according to Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc., in McHenry, Ill.

“The wheat market could see carryout numbers decline slightly on this report,” he added.

USDA is scheduled to release its monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Tuesday (Oct. 12) at 11 a.m. CT.

In the September WASDE, the corn carryout for 2021-22 was pegged at 35.77 million tonnes, up 13.3 per cent from August. Carryover for soybeans rose 19.7 per cent at 5.04 million tonnes. Wheat ending stocks stepped back 1.9 per cent at 16.73 million tonnes.

China is the central issue, Georgy said; its lack of purchasing has resulted in less U.S. corn and soybeans being exported.

“The wildcard is: will the USDA recognize the lack of demand for corn and soybeans for export sales?” he said, stressing that those exports should be on a much better pace.

So far into the 2021-22 marketing year, corn exports of 2.07 million tonnes have fallen 44.6 per cent and at 1.83 million tonnes, soybean exports have plummeted 74.2 per cent. Wheat exports of 8.71 million tonnes are down 12.3 per cent.

Georgy said China has been telling the U.S. that it doesn’t need the amounts of corn and soybeans it bought according to the Phase One trade agreement negotiated by the Trump Administration.

Other numbers to watch for in Tuesday’s WASDE are yields for corn and soybeans, for which Georgy expects some increases.

Also, he said, an eye should be kept on cotton futures as they have been coming off of their contract highs recently. Such could indicate losses ahead for soyoil and other edible oils — moreso with global crude oil prices retreating a little and with declines in U.S. stock markets.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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