CBOT weekly outlook: Soy trade watching soymeal commitments

CNS Canada — Soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade continue to climb on charts due to worries over dry soil conditions in Argentina and strength in soymeal — but that could change soon.

Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago said traders are keenly watching to see soybean meal commitment numbers in Thursday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture report.

“If they don’t show that confirmations are picking up we may see a little bit of pushback on the soymeal prices that we’ve seen over the past week,” he said.

Prices for meal could stretch into the $375-$380 per short ton area if everything falls into line the next few days, he said (all figures US$). The March contract opened on Wednesday at $365.20.

“If the rally continues I wouldn’t be surprised if (soybeans) test recent highs of $10.27 per bushel,” said Reilly.

Corn futures have been appreciating over the past six weeks, also due to dryness concerns in Argentina.

Demand for livestock feed and ethanol have also helped boost the market.

Investors are hoping that corn export commitments will pick up in Thursday’s report, Reilly said.

However, he thinks that if that does happen, the market could run into technical resistance. “Around that $3.74 area is the 200-day moving average.”

He pegged the front-month March contract’s range at $3.60-$3.75.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Dave has a deep background in the radio industry and is a graduate of the University of Winnipeg. He lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two beautiful children. His hobbies include reading, podcasting and following the Atlanta Braves.

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