CBOT weekly outlook: Crop futures in all directions

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MarketsFarm — Chinese sales of corn and a recent run of good weather in the U.S. are affecting futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wednesday, according to a broker.

Ryan Ettner of Chicago-based Allendale Inc. said recent purchases of old-crop corn from China are supporting prices, while prices for new-crop have stayed relatively steady as they will later depend on upcoming acreage numbers.

“May corn is getting into a resistance area right now around $5.55” per bushel, he said (all figures US$).

Wheat prices have continued a month-long downturn after recent rains over red winter wheat-growing areas.

“The 10-day forecast has more rains for that area. Not nearly as heavy, but you can make the case they’re off to a solid start for the rains in that area,” Ettner added.

“The three-month low (for May Chicago wheat) is $6.26. (On Tuesday), it went down to $6.3175…We actually saw multiple days of selling and I think it bottomed out (on Tuesday).”

Soybeans are trading sideways despite the upcoming Brazilian and Argentinian harvests being delayed due to heavy rains.

“In Argentina, which recently had the greatest concern of being dry, (it) recently picked up rains (last week) as well, just like the hard-hit winter wheat areas,” Ettner added. “I guess you can say most of the talk on South American weather, in general, has quieted down.”

He expects to see sideways trading for wheat until the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s next crop ratings are released in a few weeks, as well as similar trading for soybeans.

“For corn, old-crop will stay supported. New-crop may be very slowly drifting lower (going) into the acreage report” on March 31, Ettner said.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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