CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soy in harvest-induced trading range

CNS Canada –– Corn and soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade are both sitting at the low end of their trading ranges, with South America’s harvest keeping bullish features at a minimum.

Corn — The May corn contract will probably establish new contract lows over the course of the week, said Terry Reilly, senior agriculture futures analyst at Futures International.

He expects that contract to dip below $3.5425 over the course of the week (all figures US$). The May contract closed Wednesday at $3.5625 per bushel.

“And then it might see a slight rebound, but if anything it’s probably going to stay in a trading range” — a range he pegged at $3.50-$3.60 per bushel.

Since last week corn futures have lost 8.25 cents per bushel in the May contract and 9.25 cents per bushel in the July contract.

“It’s pretty much neutral news that we’re seeing and, if anything, we might be a small rise in U.S. corn exports over the next few weeks as Brazil shifts over to soybeans.”

Soybeans — The soybean market has touched its contract low of US$8.535, and prices will probably stay in a $8.50-$8.70 trading range throughout the week, Reilly said.

Harvest pressure from Brazil is the fundamental feature in that market, he said, and ample world supplies are keeping prices depressed.

Since last week, soybeans have lost 10.75 cents per bushel in both the May contract and the July contract.

Further into spring, traders are watching planting data for indications on where to move next.

“Spring plantings are around the corner for the U.S. and traders are starting to focus in on the amount of corn and soybeans that we’ve got in the U.S.,” he said.

“Estimates are already widely varied for plantings this season.”

The most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture prospective planting estimates peg next season’s soybean area at 82.5 million acres and corn at 90 million.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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