CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soy in ‘Groundhog Day’ mode ahead of report

Traders expect report to show more U.S. soy acres, less corn area

MarketsFarm — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are biding their time in narrow, rangebound trade, awaiting updated acreage and stocks data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture later in the month.

“It’s almost like Groundhog Day,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago, referring to the 1993 movie in which a TV weatherman is trapped reliving a single day repeatedly.

“We’ll probably continue to trade sideways until we get these reports, unless there’s any major changes in the U.S. weather forecast.”

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From a chart standpoint, Reilly placed September corn in a range between $3.24 and $3.29 per bushel (all figures US$). He saw support for August soybeans at $8.60, with resistance around $8.80 per bushel.

Weather conditions remain relatively favourable across the Midwest, “but if the rains don’t materialize over the next five days or so, then we could break to the upside of those ranges,” Reilly said.

General market expectations, ahead of USDA’s acreage report on Tuesday next week, call for an increase in soybean acres and a decrease in corn from the earlier forecasts of 83.5 million and 97 million acres respectively.

“Anything more than a 2.5 per cent change in the area would warrant a little bit of price action,” Reilly said

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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