Canola area expected to be lower in Monday’s StatsCan report

Later-seeded areas expected to add pulse, barley, durum acres

(Photo courtesy Canola Council of Canada)

MarketsFarm — Market participants generally expect canola acreage will be revised downward in a second acreage estimate due out Monday from Statistics Canada.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about canola acres,” Ken Ball of P.I. International in Winnipeg said, noting acreage was “definitely lost” in central and northern Alberta due to wet spring conditions.

In its first acreage estimate of the year on May 7, StatsCan had forecast canola area to total 20.615 million acres. Market participants expect that number to drop by up to 300,000 acres.

MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville expected areas that were particularly late with planting due to wet conditions may opt for barley and oats instead, due to the crops’ short growing seasons.

Also, some of the abandoned canola acres are expected to be planted to durum and pulse crops, due to general optimism regarding commodity prices.

Jubinville expected “less spring wheat and canola, with more pulses, durum and barley to make up the difference.”

StatsCan had previously pegged durum area at 5.2 million acres. Market participants anticipate up to 600,000 durum acres to be added in the report.

Other market participants are unsure of the extent to which canola acres will be reduced.

“Maybe farmers didn’t cut canola out of the rotation as much as people thought,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Financial in Winnipeg.

“It’ll be interesting to see what the survey says.”

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

Table: A recap of pre-report estimates, in millions of acres, ahead of Statistics Canada’s acreage report as of June 25, 2020.

Trade March,
Crop projections.             . 2020-21.    . 2019-20
Barley 6.830 – 7.500 7.250 7.402
Canola 20.350 – 20.890 20.615 20.956
Corn 3.460 – 3.850 3.815 3.695
Lentils 4.360 – 4.500 3.709 3.781
Oats 3.750 – 4.150 3.833 3.606
Peas 3.820 – 4.375 4.279 4.333
Soybeans 5.150 – 5.250 5.220 5.714
All wheat * 25.350 – 25.775 25.427 24.604
Durum 5.500 – 5.800 5.228 4.894

* – “All wheat” includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat remaining after winterkill

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