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Tight Year-End Stocks Forecast

Canada’s Agriculture Department slashed its production forecast for wheat, but raised its canola outlook July 5, while warning that overall crop stocks will drop to a record low this summer.

Agriculture Canada cut its harvest estimate for all wheat to 24 million tonnes from June’s forecast of 25.5 million tonnes.

Canola production rises to a record-high 13.4 million tonnes from June’s estimate of 12.7 million tonnes, as abundant moisture looks to lift yields.

Its oat production estimate drops to 2.85 million tonnes from 3.35 million tonnes seen in June.

Ag Canada also reduced its production estimates for barley and durum and forecast crops of eight million tonnes and four million tonnes respectively.

Stocks at July 31, the end of the 2010-11 crop marketing year, will be tight.

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