Global barley production is expected to decline in 2010-11, although stocks will remain more than sufficient to meet the demand, said a Canadian Wheat Board analyst in a presentation at the annual CWB Grain World conference in Winnipeg, Feb. 22.
The early price projections from the CWB are for steady to slightly lower barley values despite the reduced production.
Arvin Pirness, a barley market analyst with the CWB forecast global barley production in 2010-11 at 138 million tonnes, which compares with 144 million tonnes the previous year. Of that total, early expectations are for a Canadian barley crop of 9.2 million tonnes, down slightly from 9.5 million in 2009-10.
The global import demand for feed barley is expected to decline to 12.3 million tonnes in 2010-11, from 13.0 million. Canada is not expected to be a major player in the global feed barley market, due to better production prospects in the major importing regions and because of cheaper supplies from competing producers such as Australia and the Black Sea region, said Pirness.
Canadian feed barley usage was expected to remain constant at around 7.7 million tonnes in 2010-11, said Pirness, although he noted that declining livestock herds in the country could be cutting into some of the demand.
Pirness forecast that the global malting barley import demand would increase slightly to 4.46 million tonnes in 2010-11, from 4.36 million. However, the actual quality of the crop still remains to be seen, which could determine how much barley is available for export from any given country.