The campaign ended on a somber note on Sunday after a man rammed an SUV through a crowd at a Filipino community festival in Vancouver, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens.

Prime Minister Mark Carney briefly paused his campaign, and both he and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre mentioned the tragedy in their final campaign events. Duane Bratt, professor of political science at Calgary’s Mount Royal University, said he did not expect the mass casualty event to deter voters.

Carney’s Liberals held a 2.7-point lead over Poilievre’s Conservatives in national support, according to a CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos poll released on Sunday. Nanos put the Liberals at 42.6 per cent support and the Conservatives at 39.9 per cent, in the poll.

An EKOS poll on Sunday suggested the Liberals hold a six-point lead, and projected the Liberals to win a majority of seats in the 343-seat House of Commons and not need to rely on a smaller party to govern.

Trump renews ’51st state’ talk

Trump re-emerged as a campaign factor last week, declaring that he might raise a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian-made cars because the U.S. does not want them. He said earlier he might use “economic force” to make Canada the 51st U.S. state.

“This is probably the most consequential election in my lifetime,” said Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University. “Everything has been so overshadowed by the threats coming out of the United States.”

Carney has emphasized his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Poilievre has tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.

Trump, in a social media post on Monday, reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state.

“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” he said. “Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago.”

Standing on Sunday in front of the Ambassador Bridge connecting Windsor’s Canadian auto hub with Detroit across the border, Carney pointed to the bridge as a symbol of peace and cooperation between the two countries for almost a century.

“That has changed, and it wasn’t us who did the changing … President Trump, the guy over there,” Carney said. “He’s launched a trade war that has literally ruptured the global economy, and in the process, he’s betrayed us.”

Poilievre has attracted more young voters than usual for the Conservatives, focusing his campaign more on living costs and crime.

“Time is running out, only one more day to bring home change so that Canadians can afford food and homes and live on safe streets,” Poilievre said at a rally in Oakville, Ontario on Sunday.

Carney has sought to distance himself from former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was deeply unpopular when he said in January he would resign after nearly a decade in power. The Conservatives led polls by some 20 points around that time.

“I’m probably going to go Carney on this one just because right now, I feel like we need stability,” said Andy Hill, 37, a Vancouver-based mortgage broker and co-founder of mortgage marketplace EveryRate. “Being in the English banking system and being in the Canadian banking system, he really understands the economy.”

Bob Lowe, a 66-year-old cattle rancher who lives south of Calgary, said he has already cast his ballot for the Conservatives. He said his top concern is Canada’s flagging economic growth.

The economy had seen a fledgling recovery until the U.S. imposed tariffs.

Economic concerns also top of mind

Lowe said the Conservatives have focused on the economy all along, and that he believes the Liberals have been stoking Canadians’ anxieties about Trump to win another term.

“Poilievre has managed to keep the focus on the economy and a strong Canada, and Carney’s campaign is based on fear. That’s it in a nutshell,” Lowe said.

Saunders, however, predicts the Liberals will win a majority of electoral districts, called seats, and says it would take a “magical scenario” for the Conservatives to pull off a victory. Tensions with the U.S. have caused supporters of two smaller parties, the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois, to shift to the Liberals.

A party needs to win 172 seats to form a majority government.

Much of the Conservative support is in rural areas where there are fewer seats.

Carney, who covered more than 20 cities in his last week of campaigning, has appeared tired but tried to maintain his exuberance at rallies, attended by 1,000 to 2,000 people, according to party figures.

Carney’s rallies have attracted mostly older Canadians and featured placards saying “Jamais Le 51” (“Never 51”) and “Un Canada Fort” (“A Strong Canada”).

Mentions of Trump have been loudly booed.

Poilievre’s rallies have been bigger and mentioned Trump less often.

Election results will trickle in, starting in eastern provinces, after polls close at staggered times on Monday evening. Ballots are counted by hand.

— Reporting by Rod Nickel and Promit Mukherjee in Ottawa, Nivedita Balu in Toronto and Amanda Stephenson in Calgary; additional reporting by Susan Heavey in Washington.

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The U.S. does not impose sanctions directly on Russian fertilizer, which is important to global food supplies and prices. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department issued hundreds of fresh sanctions on other Russian targets over the war.

“What’s kind of shocking is there’s been all of this focus on not funding the Russian war machine and not buying Russian gas,” CF’s CEO Tony Will said on a quarterly earnings call. “And yet, the U.S. is arms wide open to take urea and UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) coming out of Russia, which is effectively just natural gas that’s been converted (into fertilizer).

“So the U.S. is funding the very war effort over there that on the one hand it’s condemning.”

A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

The biggest U.S. urea importers from Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to March 2024 are ECO Fertilizers, Swiss-based EuroChem and U.S. grain-handling giant Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM.N, according to U.S. import data provided to Reuters by ImportYeti, a company that provides information about suppliers by tracking bills of lading.

ECO Fertilizers, the company Russian fertilizer producer Acron Group uses to import into the U.S., according to CF, imported about 575 million metric tons during the period.

The company’s address is listed online as Hollywood, Florida, but it could not be immediately reached at its email address.

EuroChem, founded by Russian businessman Andrey Melnichenko, imported at least 81 million tons of urea from Russia via its U.S. subsidiaries.

ADM imported at least about 16.8 million tons of urea from Russia between February 2022 and March 2024 via five subsidiaries. Some grain handlers, which buy crops from farmers, use those relationships to sell growers inputs such as fertilizer as well.

EuroChem and ADM did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

CF, based in Illinois, is one of the world’s biggest nitrogen fertilizer producers and competes against Russian imports. Nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas and the U.S. has imposed sanctions on a project owned by Russia’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas.

CF does not import Russian fertilizer, company spokesperson Chris Close said.

Will did not say whether CF is calling on the U.S. to sanction Russian fertilizer.

Wholesale producers typically sell fertilizer to separate retail companies that sell it directly to farmers, or through their own retail stores.

– Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba and Richa Naidu in London; additional reporting by Steve Holland

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Railways are critical to Canada’s economy, due to its vast geography and exports of grain, potash and coal.

Contracts covering locomotive engineers, conductors and yard workers at CN and CPKC expired on Dec. 31, 2023, and Teamsters Canada Rail Conference is re-negotiating a third agreement covering CPKC rail traffic controllers.

The three worker groups, numbering 9,300 workers, each voted over 95 per cent to authorize a strike.

The sides have made no progress in six months of negotiations, said Teamsters Canada president Paul Boucher, adding that the companies were trying to remove rest provisions that are critical to safety.

CN said in a statement that the union has opposed moving toward a more modern agreement based on an hourly rate and scheduling changes and has focused instead on 200 local and regional demands.

CPKC said the parties remain far apart and now begin a mandatory 21-day period of federal mediation. The company’s proposals for rest do not compromise safety and comply with Canadian regulations, CPKC said.

The potential strike is unique in that it would involve both major railways, grinding bulk grain shipping to a near halt, said Wade Sobkowich, executive director of Western Grain Elevator Association, which represents grain handlers including Cargill and Richardson International.

“There is no plan B because, as we’ve said for decades, there aren’t competitive alternatives,” Sobkowich said.

Grain sales typically slow weeks ahead of a railway stoppage as shippers and exporters try to minimize costs for vessel wait times and contract penalties, Sobkowich said.

Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez said the government is concerned about a potential strike’s impact on the supply chain and urged the sides to negotiate in good faith.

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Bunge’s CEO Greg Heckman said remedies may be unnecessary.

Canada’s Competition Bureau said on Tuesday it was worried about reduced competition to buy farmers’ crops in Western Canada and to sell canola oil in Eastern Canada if the deal proceeds. It also flagged as a concern Bunge’s minority stake in grain handler G3, a Viterra competitor.

The global agriculture merger is the largest-ever by dollar value, creating a company worth $34 billion including debt. Analysts have said Canada was one of the countries in which the two companies’ assets had the most overlap.

The Competition Bureau said Canada will ask the companies to address any overlapping concerns related to competition and transportation. Such remedies often involve selling assets to third parties in sensitive markets.

“These assets are really valuable,” said Derek Brewin, an agribusiness professor at the University of Manitoba. “I think there will be competition from any of the Canadian buyers.”

Brewin said Bunge may address Canada’s concerns by divesting its G3 stake and a Western Canadian crushing plant.

G3 is a “Cadillac export machine,” with its four-year-old terminal at Port of Vancouver and modern country grain-handling facilities, Brewin said, adding that canola-crushing facilities would also see strong buying interest.

France-based Louis Dreyfus, which is expanding its Canadian canola-crushing capacity, might be a logical buyer of both assets, Brewin said.

Louis Dreyfus could not be reached for immediate comment.

Richardson International and Cargill also crush canola and compete with Viterra to handle farmers’ grain.

Asset sales?

Regulators in 13 jurisdictions, including the U.S., the European Union, Brazil and China, have not yet approved the deal, Bunge’s Heckman said on Wednesday. But he still expects the transaction to close by the middle of this year.

“We don’t really see any need for remedies in Canada. It would be too early to speculate on that, but we look forward to engage on the details,” Heckman told analysts on a call to discuss the company’s quarterly earnings.

But Ellen Goddard, a professor emerita of agricultural economics at the University of Alberta, said Bunge will likely have to shed assets to gain Canada’s approval.

Logical buyers will be those companies whose networks fit best with available assets, but buyers may have leverage to press Bunge to include additional facilities in deals, Goddard said.

The Competition Bureau specifically cited concerns about reduced competition to buy farmers’ canola around Bunge’s crushing plants in Nipawin, Saskatchewan and Altona, Manitoba. It also worried about reduced competition in selling canola oil in Ontario and Quebec, where Bunge, Viterra and Archer-Daniels-Midland are the only producers.

“They’ll go back to the drawing board now,” said Murray Fulton, professor emeritus of public policy at the University of Saskatchewan, about the companies. “My guess is they’ve probably already been working on this.”

—Additional reporting for Reuters by Karl Plume in Chicago

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The deal would create a company worth $34 billion (C$46.5 billion) including debt, nearer in scale to rivals Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill.

In a statement accompanying a formal report to Ottawa, the bureau said the deal was “likely to result in substantial anti-competitive effects and a significant loss of rivalry between Viterra and Bunge in agricultural markets in Canada”.

It also determined the transaction was to likely to harm competition in markets for grain purchasing in Western Canada, as well as for the sale of canola oil in Eastern Canada.

The two companies said in a joint statement that the bureau’s concerns were misplaced and vowed to work with Canadian authorities to provide more information.

The non-binding report was sent to Canada’s transport ministry, which has until June 2 this year to review the deal. The minister’s office could not immediately comment.

The federal Canadian government will take a final decision.

The Competition Bureau has a mixed record in trying to block deals, including last year its failed attempt to block a C$20-billion merger of telecom firms.

The next steps are for the government to identify any overlapping concerns related to competition and transportation and ask the companies to address them, according to the Competition Bureau’s report. Big corporate mergers typically involve the companies remedying competition concerns by divesting some assets to third parties.

If the companies’ remedies satisfy the cabinet, it can approve the merger, or approve it with conditions.

The cabinet’s deliberations do not follow a set timetable.

Competition concerns

The bureau also found Bunge could influence the economic behavior of Saudi-owned G3, a major competitor to Viterra. As a minority shareholder of G3, Bunge has access to confidential competitively sensitive information, the bureau said.

G3 and Viterra operate separate grain-handling terminals in Vancouver, Canada’s biggest port, as well as country elevators that buy grain directly from farmers.

G3 does not comment on shareholder matters and is conducting business as usual, spokesperson Peter Chura said.

Bunge, Canada’s biggest processor of canola into vegetable oil and meal, would account with Viterra for seven of 14 existing crushing facilities. In Eastern Canada, the companies are two of just three canola oil producers.

The deal would thus reduce competition both in buying canola from farmers in parts of Western Canada and competition for selling canola oil in Eastern Canada, the bureau said.

Bunge, Viterra and G3 account for a combined one-third of Western Canada’s elevator capacity.

The two companies reiterated that they expected the transaction to close in the middle of 2024.

“We are pleased the regulatory process is advancing and are confident the transaction will yield considerable benefits to Canada,” they said.

Bunge has filed for regulatory approvals for the merger in “major jurisdictions” in North and South America, Europe and China, Chief Executive Officer Greg Heckman said last November.

Bunge shares were flat in New York after Canada released the report.

—Updated April 23

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The severe conditions have prompted Alberta to open water-sharing negotiations among license-holders for the first time in two decades, hoping to salvage output from two of its biggest industries.

Alberta, which relies on melting snow and precipitation for most of its water supply, has allocated water since 1894. That system prioritizes those who have held licenses the longest, although holders rarely exercise that right.

Alberta’s water talks underline the difficult compromises facing resource-rich regions adapting to extreme weather. Hydrologists say the future will bring Alberta more rain instead of snow due to climate change, which will strain summer water supplies.

The province produces most of Canada’s oil, natural gas and beef, plus big wheat and canola harvests, much of which it exports.

Irrigation to grow crops in dry areas accounts for 46 per cent of Alberta’s water allocation, with oil and gas using 10 per cent.

Reuters spoke with more than a dozen farm, energy and government officials and found those industries preparing for the drought to potentially scale back production and raise costs.

Drought could cause double-digit declines in Alberta’s wheat yields, based on crop production data from the past two decades. Oil producers are making costly contingency plans to store more water on site and truck water across the province.

Brad Deleeuw, who manages the 5,500-head Delta Cattle feedlot near Coaldale, Alberta, said the impact of water scarcity “could be huge.”

Deleeuw will prioritize watering cattle over irrigating his wheat, corn and barley, but that shift will likely reduce yields.

“You’d go from a black situation to a red situation pretty quick,” Deleeuw said, referring to financial losses.

If he must import significantly more expensive cattle feed this summer from the U.S. to make up for smaller Canadian crops, Deleeuw said he would have to reduce how many cattle Delta fattens for slaughter by Cargill and JBS.

Drought contributed to Canada’s beef herd shrinking this year to its smallest on record, according to Statistics Canada.

Snow water equivalent, which measures water content of mountain snowpack, was down 40 per cent as of March 5 from a year earlier in southern Alberta’s St. Mary River basin. The nearby Waterton basin was down 27 per cent, according to provincial and federal government data.

Crop hit

Some 70 per cent of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought, according to the government, with the driest conditions in Alberta and British Columbia.

Alberta’s largest-ever water-sharing talks could result in major consumers agreeing in early April to share water voluntarily with others downstream, environment ministry spokesperson Ryan Fournier said. If conditions remain dire, the province could declare an emergency and is working on a plan involving additional steps, Fournier said.

In 2001, the last time water-sharing negotiations happened, Alberta’s durum wheat yield was 22 bushels per acre, down 37 per cent from the previous five-year average, according to Statistics Canada. In dry 2021, spring wheat yield fell 35 per cent while barley yield dropped 36 per cent year-over-year. The vast majority of Alberta’s grain grows on dry land, not irrigated land.

Alex Ostrop, who farms near Lethbridge, is bracing to make do with much less water to irrigate fields. In 2001, his district’s water allocation was eight inches per acre or 38 per cent less than what Ostrop used last year.

“Commodity prices are down generally – (this year) would be a double whammy of lower commodity prices and reduced yields,” Ostrop said.

Costly crude

For oil companies, dry conditions may elevate costs by forcing them to shift drilling to sites with water access or to truck water, said Tristan Goodman, CEO of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada. Companies will not drill if wells get too expensive, he said.

Oil producers are renting on-site water storage structures known as C-rings and other swimming pool-sized spaces, drilling company Trican Well Service said.

“You’re seeing customers start to really think about how they’re going to be managing water months in advance – they just haven’t had to worry about that before,” Trican CEO Bradley Fedora told analysts in February.

For now, parts of Alberta and British Columbia with the most conventional drilling and fracking have manageable water levels, Goodman said.

Drilled wells did not decline in the dry years 2001 and 2017, according to data from industry group Enserva.

Shell is putting water contingency plans in place for its Alberta wells, spokesperson Stephen Doolan told Reuters, declining to give details. Suncor Energy told analysts the drought has prompted it to plan a water-treatment plant in its oil sands operations for the end of this decade.

With Alberta possibly heading to a drier future, the province is spending C$933 million to expand irrigation. That means Alberta will spread limited water supply over 230,000 additional acres, but the upgrade will reduce evaporation by converting open canals to pipelines, Alberta Agriculture Minister RJ Sigurdson said.

Oil and gas producers are maximizing efforts to store and recycle water, with all eyes on the skies, said Ken Wagner, CEO of Fraction Energy Services, which rents water storage equipment.

“It’s definitely top of everybody’s mind. We need some more snow and we need big rain.”

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Western Canada is slowly emerging from a blast of arctic temperatures over the weekend, but the winter had otherwise been unusually mild.

Many cities experienced their warmest December ever recorded and British Columbia’s snowpack is on average 44 per cent below normal, according to provincial data. The dry winter follows Canada’s hottest summer on record, partly due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, and is raising concerns that 2024 could be another record-breaking wildfire year.

Despite plunging temperatures in recent days, the winter overall is likely to stick to a milder, drier pattern, said Weather Network meteorologist Doug Gillham.

Agriculture

As of Dec. 31, 70 per cent of the country was abnormally dry or in drought, according to Agriculture Canada, with the worst conditions in southern Alberta, western Saskatchewan and north-central British Columbia.

Virtually all of the Prairies have received less precipitation than normal during the past 60 days as of Jan. 8, with large stretches of each province collecting less than 40 per cent of usual precipitation.

In Alberta, three years of drought have raised the cost of feeding cattle and drained dugouts that the cattle drink from. This has forced some farmers to reduce their herds. Canada’s cattle inventory hit its lowest level on record in 2022, according to Statistics Canada.

Farms in southern Alberta depend on irrigated river water to sustain crops of potato and sugar beet. Non-irrigated Prairie farms produce most of Canada’s wheat and canola, much of which are exported.

Oil and gas

Regulators in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada’s main oil and gas-producing provinces, have urged companies to cut back on water use because of drought. In December the Alberta Energy Regulator said it may restrict access to water due to extremely low levels in many parts of the province, especially the South Saskatchewan river basin.

Firms are taking steps to manage potential shortages although companies are not changing development plans yet, said Tristan Goodman, CEO of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada.

Companies that usually take their water from tributaries are looking for larger sources within the same basin, while others are building more permanent and temporary water storage facilities or planning drilling programs to coincide with the peak of the spring snowmelt, Goodman added.

Hydro power

BC Hydro’s largest water reservoirs in British Columbia’s north and southeast are below normal levels, a spokesperson for the province’s electric utility said. BC Hydro imported 10,000 gigawatt hours of electricity in 2023, about one-fifth of its total energy needs, the spokesperson said.

Forestry and wildfires

Alberta still has 60 active wildfires burning and British Columbia more than 100, illustrating the dry and mild state of conditions.

Reduced snowpack means snow will likely melt faster in the spring, prolonging fire season and stretching firefighting resources, said Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildfire science at Thompson Rivers University.

Widespread wildfires could reduce the areas forestry companies are allowed to harvest, while prolonged drought weakens trees by making them more susceptible to disease, he added.

Winter sports

Western Canada’s 92 ski areas typically receive around 9 million skier visits every year, according to the Canada West Ski Areas Association (CWSAA), and the sport contributes CAD $2 billion a year to British Columbia’s economy.

This year a number of ski hills including Red Mountain in Rossland and Big White near Kelowna delayed their opening dates due to warm temperatures and lack of snow.

Conditions are improving but CWSAA CEO Christopher Nicolson said reports from a number of ski hills suggested visitor numbers were lower than usual over the Christmas period.

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In many cases weeds are developing resistance against multiple herbicides, scientists said.

Reuters interviewed two dozen farmers, scientists, weed specialists and company executives and reviewed eight academic papers published since 2021 which described how kochia, waterhemp, giant ragweed and other weeds are squeezing out crops in North Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota as chemicals lose their effectiveness.

Over the last two decades, chemical companies have reduced the share of revenue devoted to research and development spending and are introducing fewer products, according to AgbioInvestor, a UK-based firm that analyzes the crop protection sector.

Farmers say their losing battle with weeds threatens grain and oilseed harvests at a time when growers are grappling with inflation and extreme weather linked to climate change.

“We’re in for big problems over the next 10 years for sure,” said Ian Heap, director of the International Survey of Herbicide Resistant Weeds, a group of scientists in over 80 countries that maintains a global database. “We are in for a real shake-up.”

The database records reduced effectiveness for glyphosate, one of the most common herbicides, against 361 weed species, including 180 in the U.S., affecting corn, soy, sugar beets and other crops.

Some 21 weed species globally showed resistance to dicamba, the most recent major U.S. chemical, which launched in 2017.

Environmental groups argue that farmers should embrace natural weed-control methods instead of chemicals.

Kochia, which spreads as many as 30,000 seeds per plant, can cut yields by up to 70 per cent if left unchecked, according to Take Action, a farmer resource program of the United Soybean Board.

Other factors, including the development of more robust seeds, have pushed overall global crop yields higher. But scientists expect weed problems to worsen, with some weeds showing resistance to chemicals even on first exposure.

‘Really scary’

In Douglas, North Dakota, farmer Bob Finken sprayed dicamba and glyphosate to kill late-season weeds. Neither product eliminated kochia.

“That was really scary,” said Finken, 64. “Each year seems to get a little worse.”

Finken was forced to clear the weeds with harvesting equipment, which risks clogging expensive machinery.

Other farmers are hiring workers to pull weeds by hand, said Sarah Lovas, an agronomist with GK Technology, a precision agriculture firm.

North Dakota was the largest spring wheat producing state in 2023 and ninth-biggest soybean grower.

Five of North Dakota’s 53 counties have confirmed populations of dicamba-resistant kochia, a year after it was first reported in the state, North Dakota State University weed specialist Joe Ikley said.

“It’s just a matter of time before it hits your farm,” said Monte Peterson, 65, who grows soybeans near Valley City, North Dakota.

Lab scale-back

Chemical producers Bayer, Corteva and FMC FMC.N say longer development and regulatory processes have constrained new products to combat weed resistance. Industry executives say regulators have become more stringent about environmental and health impacts.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said standards for approving new herbicides have not substantially changed since 1996. However, the EPA said recent efforts to assess the impact of new active ingredients on threatened plants and wildlife have delayed some decisions.

The EPA did not estimate the increased processing time. The agency said it expedites reviews of lower-risk products.

Farm chemical companies spent 6.2 per cent of sales revenue on development of new active ingredients in 2020, down from 8.9 per cent in 2000, AgbioInvestor said. Its data showed the introduction of new active ingredients fell by more than half in 2022 from 2000.

Instead, companies have expanded uses of existing products like dicamba, glufosinate and 2,4-D.

FMC plans the 2026 launch of an herbicide to kill grassy weeds in rice crops based on the industry’s first new mode of action, a term for the way a chemical kills a weed, in three decades.

The herbicide was in development for 11 years. FMC hopes it will generate $400 million in sales within a decade, a fraction of the roughly $8 billion global glyphosate market.

“If we don’t keep developing the new products, we are going to run into a wall where growers don’t have the tools to combat the pests,” CEO Mark Douglas said. “And then ultimately you face food security issues.”

The world’s biggest agriculture chemical and seed company, Germany’s Bayer, hopes to produce its first new mode of action herbicide in over 30 years by 2028.

“We’re really desperate for (new modes of action) if we’re going to sustain uses for farmers,” said Bob Reiter, head of research and development for Bayer’s crop science division.

Two decades ago, companies commercialized a product for every 50,000 candidates, but it now takes 100,000 to 150,000 attempts, Reiter said.

U.S.-based Corteva said it has incorporated sustainability criteria, such as reduced groundwater risk, in its research and development, aiming to clear the path with regulators.

It hopes that approach will shorten the regulatory process when it introduces a fungicide with a new mode of action against Asian soybean rust disease in Brazil around 2027, said Ramnath Subramanian, vice-president of crop protection research and development. He did not say how much shorter the process may be.

Bill Freese, scientific director of the Center for Food Safety in Washington, said farmers should shift away from crops genetically engineered to tolerate herbicides, which lead to plants becoming resistant to multiple chemicals through repeated sprayings.

“It’s like this toxic spiral,” Freese said. “There’s no end in sight.”

–Reporting for Reuters by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba and Tom Polansek in Chicago.

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Brazil’s soybean harvest is already delayed and that hold-up may push back planting for the main corn season that follows it early next year, which is likely to affect fertilizer companies like Nutrien NTR.TO, Mosaic MOS.N and Yara YAR.OL. Corn is one of the most fertilizer-intensive crops.

The drought, related to the El Nino climate phenomenon, illustrates the volatility facing global agriculture as climate change accelerates. Fertilizer companies are already coping with lower profits, as crop and fertilizer prices sag after peaking at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Brazilian farmers usually sow less corn when they miss the ideal planting window in January or February, decreasing fertilizer demand.

U.S.-based fertilizer producer Mosaic expects “safrinha,” production, a Portuguese word referring to Brazil’s second corn harvest, to drop by 12% or 12.7 million metric tons, exceeding the Brazil government’s view of an 11.1 million ton drop from last year.

“I would call it a very plausible downside scenario because of how late the crop’s going to go in, how dry it currently is and how it’s likely that rains will shut down before that safrinha corn matures,” said Mosaic vice-president of market and strategic analysis Andy Jung.

Mosaic’s estimated crop decline would cut Brazilian demand for potash fertilizer by about four per cent or 500,000 tons, Jung said. That volume of potash is worth about $160 million at current prices.

A loss of sales on that scale would not be financially material as Mosaic could sell to other countries, Jung said. A worst-case scenario, however, would see safrinha corn harvest fall by 25 million tons or about one-quarter, he added.

As of early December, farmers had purchased only 60 per cent of their estimated fertilizer needs in the corn-producing states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, compared with 80 per cent usually at this time of year, said Guilherme Schmitz, market development director at Oslo-based Yara’s Brazil unit.

Safrinha corn represents about 75 per cent of Brazil’s national corn output depending on the year.

“The combination of low crop prices and the uncertainty about the weather has growers really buying on a just-in-time basis their inputs for the safrinha crop,” said Jason Newton, chief economist at Canadian fertilizer company Nutrien.

Brazilian potash prices have fallen to around $325 per metric ton, down 36 per cent year over year, according to RBC, illustrating the weak demand.

Brazilian full-year potash imports are expected to be record-high, however, based on robust shipments earlier, though some of those imports may sit in retailers’ warehouses if farmers buy less.

The drought has also forced crop chemical producers FMC FMC.N and Corteva CTVA.N to sell Brazilian stock at a discount because of lower-than-expected demand, said Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein.

Both companies may need to reduce production as rising global chemical demand may not fully offset lost Brazilian sales, he said.

“No doubt (the drought) could bring a reduction in the use of technology, including fertilizers, and a reduction in costs to make the harvest viable,” said Fernando Cadore, chief of farmer group Aprosoja in Mato Grosso.

FMC and Corteva did not respond to requests for comment.

Reduced Brazilian production could revive global corn prices and spur U.S. farmers next year to buy more fertilizer to maximize their corn production, offsetting lost Brazilian sales Mosaic’s Jung said.

Early forecasts suggest U.S. farmers will prioritize planting of soybeans, however, a crop that needs relatively little fertilizer.

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Statistics Canada’s crop estimates tend to increase in the annual December report, but the agency’s raised estimate for all-wheat production surpassed industry expectations.

Global wheat ending stocks have fallen four years in a row, with Canada’s drought and heavy rain in Australia tightening this year’s supplies, offset somewhat by a big Russian harvest.

Canada is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and the biggest canola exporter.

Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat production at 32 million metric tons, the second-lowest in six years, but an increase from its September estimate of 29.8 million. The new estimate exceeded the average industry expectation of 31.1 million tons in a Reuters poll.

“It’s a pretty big jump from the fall report. Yields came off quite a bit better than expected,” said Brian Voth, president of farmer advisory IntelliFarm. Timely late-summer rains may have revived some crops, he said.

Farmers harvested 24.8 million tons of spring wheat, the wheat milled for baking flour, up from StatsCan’s previous estimate of 22.6 million and the average trade estimate of 24 million.

Growers produced 4 million tons of durum, the hard wheat used to make pasta, the second-smallest harvest in 13 years amid tight global supplies and a slight reduction from StatsCan’s previous estimate.

The StatsCan report is based on a farmer survey.

Farmers produced 18.3 million tons of canola, up from 17.4 million in the previous report but down 2% from last year. StatsCan’s estimate matched the average trade guess.

ICE Canada January canola futures eased slightly, little changed from before the report.

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