Trade uncertainty is souring investors’ views of grain markets
Speculators spent the month of June selling Chicago-traded futures and options, specifically corn and soybeans, as if record U.S. crops were already in the bag. But the trade dispute between the United States and China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has driven market uncertainty. It was confirmed in mid-June that both parties would enforce tariffs […] Read more
Chicago-traded soybean futures reached three-week highs May 21 as China appears to be coming back to the U.S. market after a state-wide boycott, but speculative investors seem to be taking a cautious approach. The trade tension between the United States and China, the world’s leading buyer of soybeans, has weighed heavily on agriculture markets ever […] Read more
If Chinese farmers have ditched corn in favour of planting soybeans as some recent forecasts suggest, this is the most favourable scenario for a drawdown in global stocks of both commodities. The idea is that China cannot possibly increase soybean output in a way that would seriously threaten its need for imports, at least in […] Read more
Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed significantly in the past couple of weeks, worrying some market participants that this is a hint of things to come. But perhaps they have forgotten that sluggish Chinese business is normal this time of year. It is possible that Chinese importers are aggressively avoiding U.S. beans at the […] Read more
Demand for U.S. soybeans remains stubbornly depressed due to high global stocks
The soy complex may be rallying on the Chicago Board of Trade, but the outlook for U.S. supply retains its bearish feel, despite significant losses to Argentina’s soybean crop amid parched conditions. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut domestic soybean exports to 2.1 billion bushels, some three per cent smaller than last year’s […] Read more
China may have just handed farmers in the U.S. Plains a good reason to maintain or increase the already elevated corn and soybean acreage this spring. On Feb. 4, China launched an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into imports of sorghum from the United States in a move that many analysts see as politically motivated. Regardless […] Read more
The market is closely watching U.S. soybean exports to see whether the 2017-18 campaign will stumble amid record global supply, and October’s data raises a red flag. U.S. corn and wheat demand is also staring down a global supply glut and stiff international competition, and October export volumes were some of the smallest in recent […] Read more
Market speculators are looking at ample supplies and sticking with their bets
There is simply too much supply in the world to shake speculators from their tremendously bearish view of Chicago-traded grain futures and options, and their hefty short stance still looms over the market. Combining net positions through Nov. 21 in CBOT corn and wheat, K.C. wheat, and Minneapolis-traded wheat futures and options, money managers hold […] Read more
Although robust world soybean demand and competitive advantages have allowed the United States to surpass early-season export forecasts for four years in a row, market watchers wonder if this is the year that will break the mould. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly soybean export figures have consistently met or exceeded analyst estimates so far. […] Read more
Acreage is up but production down in the latest USDA monthly crop production report
Just when analysts thought they had figured out the pattern in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s U.S. soybean forecasts, the agency’s latest estimate broke form and created even more uncertainty in the market. In its monthly U.S. crop production report on Oct. 19, USDA increased harvested area of the oilseed by 740,000 acres but lowered […] Read more
