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Comment: Selling out early

Trade uncertainty is souring investors’ views of grain markets

Speculators spent the month of June selling Chicago-traded futures and options, specifically corn and soybeans, as if record U.S. crops were already in the bag. But the trade dispute between the United States and China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has driven market uncertainty. It was confirmed in mid-June that both parties would enforce tariffs […] Read more

soybean on white background

Don’t panic over lack of Chinese soy demand

Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed significantly in the past couple of weeks, worrying some market participants that this is a hint of things to come. But perhaps they have forgotten that sluggish Chinese business is normal this time of year. It is possible that Chinese importers are aggressively avoiding U.S. beans at the […] Read more

Soy bean seeds on a white background

U.S. to stay stuffed with soybeans despite Argentine losses

Demand for U.S. soybeans remains stubbornly depressed due to high global stocks

The soy complex may be rallying on the Chicago Board of Trade, but the outlook for U.S. supply retains its bearish feel, despite significant losses to Argentina’s soybean crop amid parched conditions. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut domestic soybean exports to 2.1 billion bushels, some three per cent smaller than last year’s […] Read more

Sizable fund shorts still hang over CBOT grain market

Market speculators are looking at ample supplies and sticking with their bets

There is simply too much supply in the world to shake speculators from their tremendously bearish view of Chicago-traded grain futures and options, and their hefty short stance still looms over the market. Combining net positions through Nov. 21 in CBOT corn and wheat, K.C. wheat, and Minneapolis-traded wheat futures and options, money managers hold […] Read more

USDA forecast puts soybeans in uncharted territory

Acreage is up but production down in the latest USDA monthly crop production report

Just when analysts thought they had figured out the pattern in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s U.S. soybean forecasts, the agency’s latest estimate broke form and created even more uncertainty in the market. In its monthly U.S. crop production report on Oct. 19, USDA increased harvested area of the oilseed by 740,000 acres but lowered […] Read more