Latest articles

Drozd: Canadian dollar falls to an 11-year low

There are advantages and disadvantages for agriculture

The Canadian dollar continues to erode on the heels of falling commodity prices. A year ago, the Canadian dollar was 86 cents against the American dollar. Today it is closer to 72 cents U.S. The weakness in crude oil and gold have contributed to the collapse of the loonie. Canada is a country rich in […] Read more

Drozd: Bear market intact with soybean market

The soybean market has lost 53 per cent of its value since its peak in 2012

The soybean market has been under pressure since it topped out at the historical high of 17.945 on September 4, 2012. This was a pivotal day, as it marked the end of the bull market rally and the beginning of the ensuing bear market. Now down to $8.44, the soybean futures market has lost 53 […] Read more

Drozd: Reversal pattern alerts producers to downturn in lean hog market

The hog market took four years to climb, but only nine months to fall back

Lean hog futures have been on a slippery slope since the bull market rally ended in July 2014. The nearby futures contract went from a historical high of $133.875 per hundredweight to $57.775, losing 57 per cent of its value in only nine months. To put the enormity of this collapse in perspective, it took […] Read more

Drozd: Double top signals an end to the weather market rally in canola

Weather market rallies seldom last for long. Emotions run high, causing the rally to end just as suddenly as it began

Chart analysts keen on the lookout for telltale signs of a market top in canola were rewarded when a reversal pattern called a double top appeared at the height of the rally in July 2015. Double tops and bottoms are chart formations which appear in the futures markets. Once completed, they are a reliable indicator […] Read more

Drozd: Harami provides a signal to sell wheat

It is difficult to know when to sell in a rising market

The wheat market rallied $1 per bushel in the two-week period leading up to the June 30, 2015 USDA and Statistics Canada acreage reports. But it was all downhill shortly after the July long weekend. This timely rally provided producers with an opportunity to price remaining old-crop wheat and move forward on new-crop sales. From […] Read more

Drozd: Corn market plummets after rallying to a one-year high

Faced with the realization that a weather market can end as quickly as it began, farmers have the daunting task of figuring out when to sell

It took the corn market three weeks to rally 75 cents per bushel and only two weeks to plummet just as far. When markets go down faster than they go up, farmers may have a difficult time taking advantage of a steep market rally like this. Farmers get busy and may not have got around […] Read more

oats market graph

Drozd: Oat market hammers out a bottom

Bottoming action is evident in the December 2015 oat futures market

A hammer materialized on the December oat futures chart on Monday, April 27, 2015. Hammers are reversal patterns that appear at market bottoms on candlestick charts and are bullish, as they are said to be “hammering out a bottom.” The hammer represents a period in the market where an intraday sell-off is met with strong […] Read more

soybean futures pricing chart

Drozd: Soybean market falls to a new low

The November futures contract is stuck in a downward trend

The soybean market has been under considerable pressure. The weakness started after a head-and-shoulders top developed on June 30, 2014. This classic reversal pattern was featured in my August 2014 column and I’ve also illustrated it in the accompanying chart. What a difference a year makes! The daily soybean futures contracts are trading at new […] Read more

chart showing Canadian dollar value

Drozd: Harami alerts producers to impending rally in the Canadian dollar

A harami that occurs at the end of a significant move down in price and time will have more reliability than any other place on a chart

The Canadian dollar has rallied nearly 600 basis points in the past six weeks. This rally may have come as a surprise to some people, but not to those studying candlestick charting. The Japanese are regarded as the true pioneers of candlestick charting. The Japanese method of charting is called candlestick because the individual lines […] Read more

hog prices chart

Lean hog futures plunge to a six-year low

Market Outlook: What was first seen as a downward correction was a longer-term trend

Lean hog futures have lost 57 per cent of their value since prices peaked at a historical high of $134 per hundredweight on July 15, 2014. As always, the news was incredibly bullish at the top. Expectations for higher hog prices ran rampant, as the industry was concerned about the PED virus outbreak and the […] Read more