Wheat prices notched some of the biggest declines among agricultural products, dropping after rising slightly during the previous session. Rainfall in parts of the southern U.S. Plains boosted soil moisture ahead of the winter wheat planting season, further weighing on the market.

“Today is a macro day. Crude oil is down, stock markets are down,” said Price Futures Group analyst Jack Scoville.

“We’re getting a bunch of rain in Kansas; we’ve gotten some in Oklahoma… Some of those wheat areas are getting a lot of rain and that’ll be good for the next crop,” he added.

Chicago Board of Trade September wheat settled down 9-1/2 cents at $5.32-1/4 per bushel, above its earlier 2-1/2-week low of $5.28-1/4 (all figures US$).

Prices for wheat, corn and soybeans have lost ground since a bearish U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly crop report on Friday predicted bigger-than-expected U.S. soy and corn harvests as well as larger global wheat supplies.

“(USDA) on Friday made bold forecasts of large U.S. soybean and corn yields so the dollar strength is unwelcome against the expectation that big U.S. harvests will need to find buyers on world markets,” said Charles Clack, agricultural commodity analyst at Rabobank.

The dollar hit a 13-month peak against a basket of currencies, before weakening. The greenback strengthened against the Russian ruble after Washington announced fresh sanctions against Moscow, making Russian grain comparatively cheaper in the world market. Top global wheat buyer Egypt on Tuesday bought 420,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and Romania in a tender.

The continuing trade dispute between the U.S. and China is also burdening markets.

“There is also worry about lack of real progress to solve the U.S.-China trade war with the question mark remaining over the future of U.S. soybean exports to China,” Clack said.

USDA will release weekly U.S. export sales data on Thursday.

CBOT November soybeans closed down 10-3/4 cents to $8.69 per bushel. CBOT December corn edged 1/2 cent lower to $3.76, tracking the larger declines in wheat and soy.

U.S. processors crushed a bigger-than-expected 167.733 million bushels of soybeans in July, their second-largest monthly total ever, the National Oilseed Processors Association said on Wednesday.

— Reporting for Reuters by Michael Hirtzer and Ayenat Mersie; additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Colin Packham in Sydney.

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Valero Energy Corp., a major oil refiner, funded a study by Charles River Associates that supports placing a cap on the price of biofuel blending credits under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) — a change meant to help refiners that complain the RFS now costs them a fortune.

A rival report from Iowa State University, also released this week, said such a cap on credits would backfire by eroding U.S. demand for corn-based ethanol and potentially lowering corn prices, already under pressure from a supply glut. The corn industry did not directly fund the Iowa State study, but does provide funding to the university.

The studies are meant to inform the administration’s deliberations on how, and if, to reform the RFS — which has become a major point of tension between two of President Donald Trump’s most important constituencies.

The RFS requires oil refiners to blend increasing amounts of biofuels, mainly corn-based ethanol, into the fuel supply each year, or buy the renewable fuel credits, called RINs, from other companies that do the blending.

The regulation was introduced during the administration of President George W. Bush to help farmers, cut petroleum imports, and improve air quality. But a surge in the price of RINs in recent years has upset merchant refiners who say the policy now costs them hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

Trump waded deeply into the debate last week, urging representatives of both sides to accept a compromise deal that caps prices for the credits while also removing seasonal limits on high-ethanol-blend gasolines to expand the biofuels market.

A cap would control costs for small refiners and help them stay afloat, said Brendan Williams, vice-president of government relations for refining company PBF Energy.

The biofuels industry likes the idea of expanding high-ethanol-blend gasoline sales, but has pushed back on the idea of a cap. “The RFS is a well-designed program,” said Brooke Coleman, head of the Advanced Biofuels Business Council. “Part of the whole mechanism working is that the price of RINs may go up, and so you should go long on biofuels.

“It’s a strategy to kill the RFS and to kill the economic incentive to blend,” said Coleman, referring to a 10 U.S. cents cap.

Trump has not pushed a particular price level for the proposed RIN price cap, but Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas — an advocate for the refining industry — has called for a limit of 10 U.S. cents per RIN, a fraction of their current value.

The Iowa State study said such a cap would translate to 4.6 per cent less ethanol blending in 2018. And without an increase in exports, that would mean a drop in corn prices, too.

The Valero-funded study, on the other hand, said a price cap “could alleviate several of the most pressing issues with the RFS,” while also continuing to incentivize investment in ethanol blending.

In January, refiner Philadelphia Energy Solutions blamed its bankruptcy on RINs. Bad deals and large investor payouts also played key roles in its collapse, Reuters reported.

On Wednesday, 150 biofuel manufacturers sent an open letter to Trump urging him to protect the program. The letter came as a delegation of refinery workers held meetings with lawmakers urging changes to the RFS.

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