The intergovernmental body, in a monthly update, forecast total grains production at a record 2.461 billion metric tons, up 31 million tons from its previous projection.

“The 2025/26 total grains harvest will smash all existing records. As well as bumper maize (corn) and wheat outturns, barley and sorghum crops are also expected at multi-season peaks,” the IGC said.

The report said about half the extra production may be channelled into consumption but almost as much might also be added to year-end stocks.

Global wheat production was upwardly revised to 842 million tons, up from 830 million seen previously, driven partly by improved outlooks for Argentina and Canada.

The IGC upgraded its forecast for Argentina’s wheat crop to 27.7 million tons, up from a previous projection of 23.5 million and now broadly in line with the current U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast of 27.5 million.

Canada’s wheat crop was revised to 40 million tons from 36.6 million. The USDA earlier this month put Canadian wheat production at 39.95 million.

Global corn production in 2025/26 was increased by 15 million tons to 1.313 billion tons driven mainly by an upgrade for the U.S. (432.3 million tons from 419 million).

Earlier this month, the USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production, surprising the consensus among analysts for a reduction and sending Chicago prices lower.

— Reporting by Nigel Hunt

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Ellis, 38, a fourth-generation farmer in Wawanesa, Manitoba, credits investments in pricey systems including minimum and zero-till farming which help protect soil; tile drainage, an underground system to prevent flooding; slow-release fertilizer pellets which are more effective, and advice from a professional agronomist on weedkillers.

“We are constantly making little tweaks,” he said. “That’s how we’re going to be able to keep fighting the changing climate.”

Across much of western Canada, farmers like Ellis have been turning out strikingly better crops despite hotter and drier conditions — far above what farmers in the region could have expected in better conditions years ago, according to Canadian government data, thanks in part to widespread embrace of climate adaptation strategies.

While greater yields in Canada and elsewhere are depressing global prices for grains, they are keeping many farmers in business.

Record harvests despite drought

Adaptation practices – which tend to be costly and require cutting edge technologies – have enabled many farmers to ride out a drought that began in 2020.

Earlier this month, the Canadian government announced record harvests of spring wheat and canola for 2025. And because most of the grains produced in Canada are shipped and consumed abroad, those gains have major implications for the rest of the world’s ability to feed itself affordably.

Australia, another large global grain exporter, has also reported rising crop yields despite drier conditions.

This combination of methods and technology is not just helping Canadian growers keep up with climate change, but stay ahead of its ravages, according to interviews with 25 farmers, scientists and agriculture industry leaders, and a review of more than a dozen academic papers.

Spring wheat, used to make high-quality bread, yielded 58.8 bushels per acre this year, according to the government data release. That’s a gain of 77 per cent from 30 years ago, based on a three-year average. Canola yields nearly doubled, reaching 44.7 bushels per acre, also based on a 1994-1996 average.

While most climate science paints a bleak picture for global food supply, with a study in Nature this year forecasting up to 40 per cent reduction in North America’s wheat harvest by 2100, the agricultural experts Reuters interviewed said that with climate adaptation strategies the Prairies can continue to produce bigger and bigger crops in the future.

“Back in the day, 30, 35 bushels an acre (for wheat) would have been a bumper crop,” said Rob Saik, a Canadian agronomist who has consulted with governments all over the world. “Now it’s an abject failure.”

A notoriously difficult region

Even before climate change brought more unpredictable and extreme weather, western Canada was a notoriously difficult region to farm.

The central Prairies, a land of green and golden short grasses and thin, scrubby brush, get only about half as much rainfall as Iowa, and have a much shorter growing season. Climate change has made it even harder. Environment and Climate Change Canada says the country is warming at double the global average and that extreme events have become more common. On the Prairies, annual snowfall, a key source of spring moisture, has declined and summer extremes of rain and drought have increased, with rain often coming in enormous torrents, or not at all.

“Extreme events, like floods, heatwaves, wildfires, and severe storms, are increasingly damaging to our economy, ecosystems and built environment,” the federal department said in a 2024 report.

Incremental gains, not miracles

Scientists and agronomists say Canada’s gains don’t come from a single, dramatic factor, but from steady, incremental progress with farming methods and inputs.

Many seeds now come stacked with insect, disease and weed resistance, thanks to conventional breeding as well as genetic modification. Fertilizer application is designed to minimize disturbance to the soil surface by being placed at the same time as the seed goes in.

Fungicides, weedkillers and nutrients allow crops to outcompete their natural enemies.

Some of the strategies recall pre-industrial practices, such as intercropping, growing multiple crops at the same time.

Experts also credit automation such as self-guiding tractors that apply fertilizer at different rates based on soil tests and satellite mapping.

One family’s adaptation evolution

The Mowbray family ventured into adaptive practices four decades ago with tile drainage, laying a small stretch of perforated pipe designed to take the water down into the soil rather than spread it across the surface.

Over the last 12 years, Scott Mowbray, 46, has expanded the drainage system to about 800 acres of his land.

Meanwhile, the Mowbrays gradually took up minimum till. By 2010, the 2,000-acre farm was entirely no-till, leaving the soil unplowed and with stubble standing as a moisture trap and a barrier against the wind that otherwise carries the topsoil away.

The innovations allow the Mowbrays to “pull off yields twice what we used to with half as much rain,” Mowbray said, producing “incredible” volumes of spring wheat, peas and rye.

Technology’s steep price tag

Much of what has allowed Canadian farmers to deal with climate change involves expensive and complex equipment. A smart combine costs upwards of $1 million. A high-speed-data-enabled tractor and seeding drill cost around $2 million.

Kip Eideberg, senior vice president of government and industry relations for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, which represents John Deere DE , Case New Holland CNH and other manufacturers, said precision systems have saved Canadian farmers nine per cent in herbicide and pesticides, six per cent in fuel, and four per cent in water use. That saves money for farmers operating on razor-thin margins, he said.

Most large-scale farmers have access to such technology in their tractors, combines, sprayers and management computers, Terry Griffin, a Kansas State University agricultural economist, said. But an older generation of farmers often doesn’t want to take on digital challenges, while younger farmers don’t have the money for machines or agronomic advice.

One obstacle to greater adoption is rural broadband access. Mowbray can’t count on being able to run a constant stream of data from his big farm machines. He can’t even call his farmhouse from his cellphone. His farm relies on two-way radios instead.

“It’s a simple thing but hugely important when you are in the field and might need a pick-up but can’t get a call through to the house,” he said.

Seed science – the invisible factor

Another equally important factor for farmers’ gains: breeding genetically superior crops that are hardier, drought-tolerant and produce bigger yields.

“We’re just starting down that path,” said Rick Mitzel, CEO of farmer-and-industry-funded mustard seed development organization Mustard 21. The company is developing drought-tolerant plants as an alternative to canola. The varieties “come out of the ground quicker, develop roots quicker, get leafing faster,” Mitzel told Reuters in an interview.

The farmer-controlled South East Research Farm in Redvers, Saskatchewan has been testing crops such as camelina, which is most likely to be planted in Canada for sustainable aviation fuel, that could offer farmers better yields and more resilience.

Executive director Lana Shaw doesn’t think climate change will happen without losses to the Canadian farm community. Some farmers will choose to not adapt and will simply retire. Some will adapt and fail. And some farmers will adapt and thrive.

“Under pressure,” she said, “they can adapt very fast.”

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The idea was to see how well the drone could seed a multi-variety cover crop, how much biomass could be produced and would it be enough to build soil carbon.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian researchers want to see if drone seeding cover crops can help minimize tillage and deal with the challenge of how to seed a cover crop without damage or interference to a grain crop.

Drones for aerial seeding is not a new concept, said Oscar Molina, a research scientist in cropping systems for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Another Living Labs project in Ontario is also looking at cover crop seeding via drone. The practice is also used in some U.S. states.

Molina was among the speakers at the Manitoba Association of Watersheds conference in Brandon in early December.

Drones, though, aren’t limited to ground travel. They can get into a field earlier in the season to seed, giving whatever they broadcast a longer window to grow. That longer growing window comes with more time to grow biomass, Molina said.

Researchers opted for a mix of crops suited to being broadcast via a drone for their recent trial. These were small seed crops such as clovers, ryegrass, turnips and radishes.

Three fields in the eastern Interlake and one field in the central Assiniboine watershed districts were chosen for the project. Drones seeded the trial plots at 12.5 pounds per acre and a traditional planter seeded at eight pounds per hectare. No fertilizers were added in either case.

Traditional equipment, using the same crop varieties, was used as a comparison.

One test site performed so well that its drone-seeded biomass was more than three times greater compared to a traditional planter.

Molina noted that “the radishes and the brassicas overall, they actually did much better.”

One grower participating in the project noted that the turnips grew better than the radishes.

Overall, clover species had difficulty establishing. Where test sites experienced some drought, weeds tended to out-compete the cover crop.

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The 2025 budget will be the Carney government’s first.

Change in approach expected

“I think the business community would be shocked if there wasn’t a dramatic departure and approach,” said CropLife Canada CEO Pierre Petelle said.

“Everything we’ve heard for the past year signaled a pretty significant departure from the previous government.”

The Trudeau government’s 2024 budget drew mixed reactions from the agriculture community with some groups praising its action on tax and climate challenges and others saying it fell short of farmers’ concerns. The 2024 fall economic statement made few mentions of agriculture.

Tyler McCann, managing director of the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI), said he also sees a difference in the how the current government approaches agriculture.

“I think if you hear what (Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Heath) McDonald says, it is very clearly a growth-oriented approach,” McCann said. “He is very much concerned about the economics of the sector. He’s very much concerned about trade and economic viability. He talks about innovation. He talks about regulatory reform.”

McCann said he sees two main expectations for the budget within the sector: supports for those impacted by Canada’s various ongoing trade disputes and a set of cuts and sacrifices.

“If you look across what (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) spends its money on, it’s pretty easy. There’s only so many buckets that can get cut from.”

McCann said he expected cuts to environmental programming and staffing.

He added the cost-cutting may not be as aggressive as initially expected, and next year will likely see a budget with more drastic cuts. This is largely due to the trade uncertainties Canada is still facing.

Non-financial asks

Improved regulatory approval timelines for government bodies like the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) and Pest Management Regulatory Agency (PMRA) were among CropLife’s priorities according to an Oct. 30 statement.

“We saw the Liberal platform mentioning the mandates of CFIA and PMRA … should be broadened to include economic considerations,” Petelle said. “We’re asking for that to actually happen.”

“The good thing about our asks (is) they’re not financial asks,” he added. “With the austerity coming and the focus on our deficit, we feel that this is the perfect time to take some of these requests seriously.”

McCann said he saw this as a possibility.

“There’s a lot of opportunity for the government to do non-cost measures, or to take money that they’re already spending and spend it differently in ways,” he said.

“I think that there’s broad agreement, even within government, that their first round of work on regulatory reform was very underwhelming and left a lot of work on the table, and certainly the budget would be a good place to do it.”

What agriculture needs in the budget, McCann said, is a sign the government will follow through in its mandates and act on regulatory reform.

In the Oct. 30 release, CropLife also called for the government to “put food security and affordability at the forefront,” and “Institute cutting-edge regulatory practices,” by “reviews and best regulatory practices from trusted, risk-based jurisdiction.”

Agriculture as a national priority

In June, over 25 agricultural organizations, including the Canadian Federation of Agriculture, Grain Growers of Canada, the Canadian Cattle Association and the Canadian Meat Council, sent a letter to Carney welcoming the government’s focus on strengthening the economy while also requesting strategic investment in the sector. It called for agriculture to be made a national priority.

Petelle said it was significant for so many commodity groups, from supply managed sectors to grain growers, to align on a message.

“These groups don’t always align on policy positions, but what they do align on is a call to action,” he said. “So, I think that that speaks volumes.”

Trade also continued to be a priority. The Canadian Federation of Agriculture called on the government to support trade efforts like the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), to protect farm inputs like fertilizer from countermeasures in response to U.S. tariffs, and to ensure agriculture’s place in the new Trade Diversification Corridor Fund.

The federation also asked the government to support pathways to permanent residency for temporary foreign workers, to modernize the Canadian Grain Act and to mandate “Agricultural Impact Assessments (AIAs) for all federal infrastructure projects, including defence-related projects, and federal land claim decisions that may affect the quality or availability of agricultural land in Canada.”

The Canadian Meat Council asked the government to reduce regulatory burdens by modernizing Canada’s enhanced feed ban, by extending Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) applicability to 2 years and to invest in African Swine Fever (ASF) preparedness and recovery.

The Canadian Organic Growers released an action plan Oct. 29, ahead of the budget’s release, which called on the government to adopt a plan to “unlock the sector’s full potential.” Its main action points included accelerating growth and innovation in organic production, growing markets and demand and strengthening policy, regulatory and data infrastructure.

In an Oct. 31 news release, the Conservative Party of Canada called on the government to bring back the Prairie interswitching pilot in the budget. This would include making it permanent and extending it to regions not included in the original program, which it said would provide farmers with the fair rail access they need.

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The losses to crops such as cotton and soybean are expected to slow agricultural growth, boost farmers’ debt and cap rural consumption, which had been set to rise after New Delhi slashed taxes on hundreds of consumer items.

“We had hoped to harvest 10 to 12 quintals of soybean per acre, but now we’ll be lucky to get 2 to 3 quintals — and even that will require significant additional expenses,” said farmer Kishore Hangargekar. A quintal is a unit equivalent to 100 kg (220 lb).

He was speaking after two days of unrelenting rain flooded his fields and submerged his crops in the district of Dharashiv in the western state of Maharashtra.

Related: India and Canada agree on new roadmap for relations.

Until then, the soybean crop had been thriving, and farmers were readying for harvest.

The reduction in yields from excessive rainfall is likely to halve agricultural growth to three per cent to 3.5 per cent in the December quarter, down from 6.6 per cent a year earlier, said Garima Kapoor, economist at Mumbai-based Elara Securities.

Summer-sown crops such as soybean, cotton, rice, pulses and vegetables mature from September, a month that saw rains of 15 per cent above average this year, with some regions getting as much as 115 per cent more than normal.

While agriculture contributes just 18 per cent to India’s economy of nearly US$4 trillion, almost half its population of 1.4 billion relies on farming to earn a living.

No respite from rain

Now farmers are scrambling to harvest summer crops ahead of winter sowing set to begin next month, but more untimely rain forecast this week could delay planting and damage late-maturing summer crops.

The rain-damaged crops are earning prices well below the government’s minimum support price, as quality has deteriorated.

“Traders are buying the damaged crops for throwaway prices, and we have no choice but to sell,” said farmer Sachin Nanaware, who sold his soybean at a rate of 3,200 rupees ($50.62) for 100 kg, below the government-fixed rate of 5,328 rupees.

Nanaware said he had hoped to buy a motorcycle and a television, but is now worried about repaying his bank loan.

The excessive rain has boosted soil moisture for winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpea, but many farmers say they lack funds for seeds and fertilisers.

“We need money to buy seeds and fertilisers and to prepare the land,” said farmer Chaya Jawale as she collected cotton bolls brought down from plants prematurely by the rain.

“So, we have no choice but to mortgage our gold jewellery.”

Damage to soybean and cotton crops is expected to boost India’s vegetable oil imports in the marketing year from November by 1.5 million tons to a record 18 million, says industry analyst Thomas Mielke of Oil World.

— Additional reporting by Ira Dugal

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On July 31, 2025, the Israeli army, using bulldozers and heavy machinery, laid waste to Palestinian heritage seeds and key infrastructure belonging to the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UWAC) — a Palestinian farmer organization and member of the global La Via Campesina movement.

As farmers, we share an intimate knowledge of the significance of seeds to a people’s food sovereignty, culture and survival. For generations, Palestinian farmers have carefully selected and saved seeds for their specific traits and ability to continuously adapt to changing conditions. Seeds saved by Palestinian farmers are the bedrock of their national food system. Locally adapted, culturally relevant seeds embody generations of agricultural knowledge. They hold the stories, visions, legacies and hopes of their people.

UWAC’s seed bank held seeds that were the heritage and trust of Palestinian farmers in the West Bank and Gaza. The existence and survival of their heritage seeds are inseparable from Palestinians’ physical and cultural survival. The Israeli government’s deliberate attack on this seed bank is intended to demonstrate to Palestinian farmers and Palestinian society their helplessness as they are pushed toward the brink of total annihilation.

This malicious attack and deliberate targeting of a civilian agricultural facility represents a further escalation of the violence, crimes against humanity and genocide in Gaza.

Israel’s assault on Gaza has resulted in the officially recorded deaths of over 66,700 Palestinians to date. The actual death toll is almost certainly far higher. Farmers and food providers have been devastated by acute bombardment, as well as by the ongoing restriction of movement and access to land and resources. The intentional denial of food and water in Gaza is being used by Israel as a tool of genocide against the Palestinian people, and the resulting mass starvation is a crime against humanity, a violation of international human rights to food and water and a breach of international humanitarian law.

On behalf of the thousands of farmers and farm workers who are members of the National Farmers Union, we denounce Israel’s deliberate attack on Palestinian seeds and agricultural heritage. We renew calls for the Canadian government to do everything in its power, including implementing a two-way arms embargo and diplomatic and economic sanctions, to stop Israeli military operations against Palestinians in Gaza and uphold the principles of the Geneva Convention.

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Maddhu Khanna, an environmental economics professor with the University of Illinois, outlined some of the latest research on SAFs from annual energy crops like energy sorghum and high-yielding perennials including miscanthus, switchgrass and energy cane.

She spoke at the International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) conference July 11 in Saskatoon.

Based on the research to date, producing SAFs from energy crops will cost two to three times more than petroleum jet fuel, she said. It will also require either mandates that require the aviation industry to comply with high biomass or high prices for farmers to grow what could be high-risk propositions.

“A lot of those policies actually need to deal with the initial establishment cost because that is a huge part of the upfront cost of planting these energy crops and that’s what causes them to be risky,” she said.

The United States wants 100 per cent SAF, but where’s the room?

SAF researchers and entrepreneurs are already facing some stiff challenges. The U.S. hopes to increase production of SAFs, gradually reducing dependence on petroleum until 2050 when it expects the entire aviation industry to go 100 per cent SAF — a projected 35 billion gallons (132.5 billion litres) by that year.

That’s a tall order. Khanna said current SAF production is about 20 million gallons (about 76 million litres).

“That’s a significant ramp-up in production that’s needed.”

Food production for fuel in the U.S. is already at a tipping point that could compromise food production for humans. Khanna said 30 per cent of the country’s corn is already earmarked for ethanol, while about 40 per cent of its soybean oil is produced for biodiesel.

The level of SAF production the U.S. expects would require feedstocks other than human-consumable food, she said. That’s why the U.S. Department of Energy is pressing for a non-food feedstock route in its roadmap toward SAF goals, including “energy crops” grown expressly for that purpose.

Among these energy crops is energy sorghum — an annual grass that grows 14 to 15 feet every year which — according to Khannu — only needs to be planted every 10 to 15 years.

“They have a lot of very environmentally-appealing features,” she said.

“They could actually be sustainable aviation fueling that produces close to zero or negative carbon intensity. And they also can reduce nitrogen leaching.”

The question is where to grow them. A check in energy sorghum’s favour is its ability to grow on marginal land. But there’s still a problem: at some point — according to Khannu’s projections — there will be instances where it will be more productive to grow energy crops on cropland, in the process re-igniting arguments over land use.

“Bioenergy crops will be produced from an economic perspective. They will be produced somewhat on marginal land, somewhat on cropland,” she said.

Some have suggested abandoned agriculture land as a venue for energy crop growth. Aside from the fact this category barely exists in Canada’s landscape today, soil health advocates fear carbon and ecosystem service loss when switching to cropland.

“And not only are you going to lose the carbon in the soil that has already been stored, but after we convert it, it will not have the opportunity to accumulate carbon that would have otherwise been accumulated,” said Khannu.

Khannu has a partial solution to the land-use question around SAFs and energy crops.

The U.S. has a partial equilibrium economic model called BEPAM (Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model) that, when linked with a biogeochemical model, can be used to help determine where energy crops can be grown — be it cropland, marginal land or non-crop land.

The researchers discovered through BEPAM that an attempt to meet the U.S.’s 35 billion-gallon mandate using advanced biofuels would cost US$1.40 per litre of SAF in 2016 dollars (US$1.90 today according to the U.S. Inflation Calculator).

“The corresponding price of petroleum jet fuel was 34 cents per litre in 2016 dollars. So the price of SAF would be more than five times higher,” she said.

The economic model helped the researchers understand how much land would be needed to produce energy crops to meet SAF production goals and its implications for food crop prices.

“We look at all the different ways in which these feedstocks affect greenhouse gas emissions through the life cycle: the emissions from producing the crops, soil carbon effects, (how) the indirect land-use change affects the savings we get by displacing petroleum jet,” says Khannu.

From there, they calculated the net carbon impact of SAF and compared it to the GHG sequestration savings there would have been if the land was left alone.

“And so what we see here is that the carbon intensity of SAF goes down as the price of sustainable aviation fuel goes up. It allows more energy crops to be produced which have much lower carbon emission intensity.

“And so the carbon intensity of SAF goes down (and it) goes down even further as we allow non-cropland to be converted to grow energy crops.”

“To sequester carbon by allowing the land to convert into SAF feedstocks, you can actually get a much greater reduction that’s many times greater than keeping the land residence.”

Higher food prices may result

However, this process also introduces a spanner in the works: less cropland for food driving higher consumer prices.

“And because of that, corn and soybean prices will go up looking at the overall crop price index. So with a 35 million-gallon mandate, crop prices would go up … 30 per cent, so that’s kind of the trade-off that would be involved.”

All of this comes back to incentivizing farmers to grow energy crops, she said. And that will take money.

“It takes one to three years to plant and to grow them. Farmers have to commit to a crop that’s going to take 10 to 15 years to pay back and in the meantime, you’re losing the opportunity of benefits from having other crops.”

Farmers who are risk-adverse to investing in energy crops will need higher prices for biomass and SAF to be willing to produce those crops instead of corn and soybeans, said Khannu. This will raise the cost of SAF.

“So when we put all of that into the model and then we (ask) what do those supply curves look like from these crops, there is a substantial reduction in the amount of SAF that could now be produced.

“So instead of producing 120 billion litres, we’re more than 50 billion litres, so that’s when the cost (of SAFs) is going to go up because of that risk aversion.”

Breeder touts Canadian-grown energy sorghum

Energy sorghum is sold in Canada. Om Dangi, president of Agricultural Environmental Renewal Canada (AERC), points to Canadian Sweet Sorghum Hybrid (CSSH) 45 — a sorghum suitable for biofuel that can be converted into SAFs.

AERC is an Ottawa-based hybrid seed company with a focus on research, development and commercialization of environmentally-friendly and economically-promising crops, according to its website.

CSSH-45 is recommended for one-time harvesting to make silage or green chop for dairy and beef animals. The AERC website says this variety has “very high potential” for its “juice” that aids in the production of ethanol and biodiesel.

“It is grown just like sugarcane,” says Dangi, who bred the variety using conventional breeding methods.

“It’s mature in 98 days … You can extract easily 50 per cent juice through the total biomass.”

It can be grown in semi-arid areas for silage production following juice extraction.

Dangi says climate change has allowed this sorghum to be grown in places it normally couldn’t. The areas of Canada that can support CSSH-45 lie between Canada’s 43rd north latitude to its 53rd north latitude. That means it can be grown in areas from B.C. to Quebec.

– With files by Janelle Rudolph.

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Farmers in the province have planted 18 per cent of the expected 2025 crop as of May 5, as reported in the province’s first crop report of the season released on May 8. The five-year average at this time of year was 10 per cent, while the 10-year average was 12 per cent. Producers took advantage of dry weather in the final two weeks of April despite storms throughout the rest of the month.

The most rainfall during the week ended May 5 was reported around Alida in the southeast corner of the province at 16 millimetres.

The southwest region was 43 per cent complete, followed by the northwest at 15 per cent, the southeast at 14 per cent, the west-central region at 11 per cent and the east-central and northeast regions at nine per cent.

Saskatchewan’s lentil crop was 34 per cent planted, with durum (33 per cent), triticale (31 per cent) and field peas (31 per cent) not far behind. Chickpeas were 28 per cent planted, while mustard was at 21 per cent. Barley and spring wheat crops were 19 per cent and 13 per cent planted, respectively. Canola was 10 per cent seeded, followed by flax (six per cent), perennial forage (five per cent), canary seed (four per cent), oats (four per cent) and soybeans (less than one per cent).

Topsoil moisture for cropland was rated at three per cent surplus, 78 per cent adequate, 16 per cent short and three per cent very short. Moisture for hayland was reported at one per cent surplus, 71 per cent adequate, 22 per cent short and six per cent very short. Pasture topsoil moisture conditions were reported at one per cent surplus, 68 per cent adequate, 23 per cent short and eight per cent very short.

Spring runoff was reported in late April, with provincial data indicating 30 per cent below normal, 55 per cent normal and 15 per cent above normal. Seventy-six per cent of crop reporters said that the amount of runoff received would be sufficient to replenish dugouts and other water bodies within their area. But 52 per cent of respondents in the southwest region said the amount of runoff may not be sufficient to replenish dugouts within their area.

Six per cent of pastures were in excellent condition in late April, 42 per cent were reported to be in good condition, 36 per cent were reported as fair, 13 per cent were reported as poor, and three per cent were very poor.

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“As they are waging war with the entire world, they will not make an exception for Brazil. That certainly will not happen,” he told GloboNews TV. “But when we sit at the negotiating table, they will bring up ethanol, and we will bring up sugar.”

Why it matters: Crop powerhouse Brazil expects to be drawn into U.S. trade tensions

When U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his plan to raise import tariffs, details of which are expected in early April, a White House fact sheet on the move cited Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices.

That led Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira to call a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol unreasonable, stressing that the two countries have historically negotiated ethanol and sugar trade together.

Brazil is one of the world’s largest sugar producers and the vast majority of its ethanol also comes from sugarcane, compared to U.S. ethanol made largely with corn.

Brazilian officials often argue that the tariff imposed by the U.S. on sugar imports outside preferential quotas is too high, exceeding Brasilia’s tariff on ethanol imports.

Haddad said the exchange of services with the United States, where it is a major exporter relative to Brazil, could also be a key issue in negotiations.

The minister stressed Brazil’s stance is not to “add fuel to the fire” of the tariff dispute, so it is waiting for the U.S. to outline its approach to bilateral trade.

“Meanwhile, Brazil is reviewing its entire import and export agenda, item by item, so that when we go to the negotiating table, we can also present our demands,” he said, stressing that the approach would be “reciprocity, not retaliation.”

— Reporting by Marcela Ayres

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“The trade war continues to benefit Brazilian agriculture, and Brazil as a secure supplier for customers who demand food,” Aurelio Pavinato said in a call with analysts following the company’s fourth-quarter results.

SLC is one of Brazil’s largest grain and cotton producers.

Why it matters: A trade war may allow Brazil to swoop into markets while Canadian and U.S. agricultural goods are tied up in disputes

The upside to Latin America’s No. 1 economy would be linked to strong demand from China, the world’s top soybean importer, as the Asian country’s reliance on U.S. soy “decreased a lot” since a previous 2018-2019 trade war, Pavinato said.

China last week retaliated swiftly to fresh U.S. duties announced by Trump, imposing hikes of 10 per cent and 15 per cent in levies covering $21 billion (C$30.2 billion) worth of American agricultural goods, including meat and soybeans.

Pavinato estimated China will import 80 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil and 21 million tons from the U.S. this year.

The trade war is already strengthening premiums for Brazilian soybeans over Chicago benchmark prices, he said, adding that they have the potential to rise 10 per cent – precisely the tariff rate applied by China on U.S. soy.

Pavinato noted that China has also cut its reliance on U.S. corn and that Brazil would soon be able to meet all of China’s cotton import demand.

The key question, he said, was whether there would be a new deal between China and the U.S. on agricultural goods, as in the previous trade war the two superpowers managed to reach an agreement.

A deal like the one seen in the first Trump administration might not be beneficial for Brazil as it could lead China to import more from the U.S.

“But we don’t believe it will happen,” Pavinato said.

“There may be a deal, but agriculture would not be its pillar. The 2025 trade war seems much more geopolitical than commercial.”

— Reporting by Roberto Samora

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