Feed barley in Lethbridge was selling for C$295 to C$300 per tonne for May and June delivery, up C$5 from two weeks earlier, said Brandon Motz, owner and manager of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta. He also heard offers of up to C$310/tonne. Meanwhile, feed wheat was selling at C$305 to C$310/tonne.

“There still seems to be some very aggressive bids (for feed barley) from the line companies,” Motz said. “Actual feedlot demand is below average this time of year, but there are a lot of moving factors.”

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

As barley and wheat move through the markets, rising corn prices have weakened demand for the crop.

“Corn is trickling into the market. There is some feeding corn. Corn has always kind of been in the background, but there’s not a lot of volume. Corn prices have rallied up too. So they’ve stayed out of reach,” Motz said.

Rising fuel prices, brought on by the war in Iran, have tightened margins for grain companies and railways, resulting in surcharges and higher freight rates. Motz added that they are affecting growers’ bottom lines as well.

“That’s quite a jump if you didn’t have your spring needs already booked,” he said. “It’s definitely something to be watched and unfortunately not a lot can be done to manage that risk. The bid offer spread has to be adjusted to compensate for fuel prices.”

Where grain prices could go is hard to determine, but Motz believes there will be little movement in the near term.

“It’s safe to assume that prices will remain in this area for the next week at least. There’s nothing to suggest that anything should change,” he said. “But at the same time, this market has been one tweet way from dramatic correction on either side … We need some global shifts to take place before any of the markets come off their highs at this point.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported that delivered feed barley prices in Alberta ranged from C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel on April 6, steady from the week before. In Saskatchewan, they were also steady, ranging from C$5.12 to C$5.45/bu. In Manitoba, prices were up 25 cents at C$4.77 to C$5/bu.

Feed wheat prices in Alberta were from C$6.18 to C$8.38/bu., down three cents. Manitoba’s feed wheat price was C$6.45, up 13 cents, while Saskatchewan’s was steady at C$7.30/bu.

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A Canadian beef quality audit conducted 10 years ago pegged the annual cost at $61 million. But that figure did not account for hidden losses like reduced growth efficiency, increased feed costs and added carcass trim. Modelled against more recent U.S. research (Taylor et al. 2025), the real number could be closer to $250 million.

“The important thing was that most of the losses that were associated with that number were before slaughter. So these are your increased energy maintenance,” said Rob Gruninger of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada at the Alberta Beef Producers’ annual beef research showcase at the University of Lethbridge.

“A pen that has 20 per cent animals with liver abscesses will have four per cent increased maintenance energy cattle with A-plus liver.”

The per-animal loss ranges from $11 to $275, depending on severity. A-plus livers — severely abscessed with multiple small abscesses — carry the heaviest penalty, while A-minus livers with one or two small abscesses reduce carcass weight by roughly 29 pounds.

The detection problem

One of the biggest challenges is that liver abscesses are nearly invisible until slaughter. Cattle rarely show clinical signs unless severely impaired, and ultrasounds have proven ineffective at capturing the entire liver. Researchers hope a blood-based test using gene expression will soon fill that gap.

“If there was a way to identify it earlier, better (feed) management decisions would be great,” said Gruninger. “The closest thing I’ve seen in data related to that is the beef-on-dairy. Those animals are on feed for an extra 100 days relative to an Angus cow, and you see significantly higher rates of abscesses.”

What drives the condition

Industry estimates put incidence rates at 10 to 30 per cent across North America, with Canada on the higher end. Steers are more susceptible than heifers. More days on feed and more digestible diets both raise the risk. Dairy cattle have higher rates than beef cattle, with summer months worse than winter. Diets heavy on wheat and barley produce higher rates than corn or sorghum, and silage outpaces hay.

“The currently accepted theory of how liver abscess is developed is that it’s related to acidosis, and so the consumption of highly fermentable diets results in the rapid production of volatile fatty acids,” said Gruninger. “The rumen is only able to absorb those acids at a certain rate. So if you’re producing more acid than the animal is able to use for growth, then the pH of the rumen is going to decrease.”

When pH drops far enough for long enough, the rumen wall can be damaged, allowing gut bacteria into the bloodstream — a condition known as ruminitis. Those bacteria travel through the portal vein to the liver, where they can colonize and form infections. Emerging research also points to hind gut acidosis and epithelial damage in the cecum and colon as another possible entry point.

The core bacteria found in abscessed livers are Fusobacterium and Bacteroides. Both exist in healthy livers too, but at lower levels — meaning the triggering factors, including diet, stress and days on feed, are what tip the balance.

Growing pressure on antibiotics

Tylosin is the primary feed additive used to reduce liver abscesses, cutting incidence by 30 to 35 per cent without affecting gain. But federal pressure to reduce antimicrobial use in livestock is mounting, and Gruninger stressed the industry needs alternatives in case Tylosin is eventually banned.

Current approaches — more fibre and forage, yeast products, direct-fed microbials, essential oils and a dated fusobacterium-specific vaccine — have shown inconsistent or inconclusive results.

Gruninger recommended reducing chronic pen overcrowding, avoiding disruptions during diet transitions, choosing grains carefully and managing days on feed — all in combination with Tylosin until a better option emerges.

“I think the most feasible would be, ‘Could we figure out how to make a vaccine that works well enough that is cost effective and makes sense to use’?” he said. “Maybe targeting more than just fusobacteria.”

Why the cost is likely climbing

With beef cattle being pushed to greater finishing weights and more days on feed in recent years, the economic impact has almost certainly grown. Producers in the audience hypothesized the real cost may be five times the figures from a decade ago.

“The goal of the research is can we find some other (effective) ways,” said Gruninger.

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“And very mixed in the direction they’re going,” Leclerc added.

She said some in the industry are saying the feedlots are full and feed prices are coming down, while other people indicated prices are largely unchanged.

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Leclerc said elevator prices are flat as well, but wheat prices have been pointing upward. That should lead to higher prices for feed wheat.

“They’re going to have to eventually buy it at a level where its comparable to where you can sell it elsewhere,” she said.

Feed prices were steady to higher across Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

For the week ended April 1, feed barley gained seven cents in Alberta at C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel delivered and it added four cents in Manitoba at C$4.60 to C$4.75. Prices in Saskatchewan were unchanged at C$5.12 to C$5.45 bu./del.

As for feed wheat, prices were firmer, with the only increase in Manitoba of five cents at C$6.32 bu./del. Alberta was steady at C$5.97 to C$8.41 bu./del. and Saskatchewan held at C$7.30.

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Planting of wheat, canola and other crops is set to gather pace this month across much of Australia and farmers need ample supplies of crop nutrients to support early growth.

The price of urea in Australia was quoted around A$1,350 (C$1,298) per ton this week, up about 60 per cent since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, analysts said. Australian diesel prices are up 88 per cent over the same period.

“Farmers are trying to reduce fertilizer application and switching planting from nitrogen hungry crops like wheat and canola into feed barley,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Some are also reducing planted area, but this so far is minimal,” he said.

Australia’s wheat planting could drop by 10 per cent to 12 per cent given the current conditions, from 12.4 million hectares a year ago, an agricultural broker and an analyst said. Cultivation of canola is also likely to decline despite higher returns, they said. Both declined to be named.

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and No. 2 supplier of canola, selling to importers across Asia, the Middle East and Europe. It also sells crops such as barley, chickpeas and pulses.

Straight of Hormuz is fertilizer choke point

Farmers worldwide are struggling to secure fertilizer supplies as planting season in key countries gets underway, with the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 30 per cent of globally traded fertilizers, severely disrupted by the Iran war.

Bank of America warned that the conflict threatens 65 per cent to 70 per cent of global supplies of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, with prices already up 30 per cent to 40 per cent.

U.S. farmers plan to plant less corn and more soybeans in 2026 than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. China has curbed fertilizer exports, while India is tapping alternative sources to boost supplies for summer-sown crops.

Corn, wheat and canola usually require higher application of urea than barley and pulses.

“Australia typically relies on China for urea, but export curbs have limited shipments,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

“Buyers turned to Indonesia, only to face further constraints there and by the time they sought supplies from the Middle East, the war had already started and the Strait of Hormuz had closed.”

Crops need fertilizer at the start of planting as well as in development and pre-maturity stages. Crops planted in April and May are harvested in November and December.

“It is a big issue as the cost of farming has risen sharply in the last one month,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Sydney.

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The issue of high-yielding genetics with low straw strength was a particular problem in 2010, 2012 and 2014, when barley and wheat had high production that coincided with severe lodging.

“We had very high production years, lots of moisture and lots of conditions that promoted lodging,” Mitchell Japp, research and extension manager at SaskBarley, said at the recent Top Crop Summit in Saskatoon.

“So at the time, we had relatively poor genetics for lodging, and the straw strength wasn’t there, and so our fertility management was one of the few things that we had to be able to control lodging.”

Controls were promoted, such as increased potassium to improve straw, reduced seeding rates and lowering nitrogen to ensure plants stayed standing and protein stayed low enough for malt barley.

But farmers also started turning to another class of products to help solve the issue: plant growth regulators.

In 2014, Manipulator PGR, with the active ingredient chlormequat chloride, was registered for wheat. Today, products containing that active ingredient include registrations for other cereals crops like barley and oats.

Researchers at the Indian Head Agricultural Research Farm in Saskatchewan performed trials on barley for application timing and effect of the product. Their results were promising.

“They found that it decreased height, decreased lodging and even in the absence of those, sometimes led to a yield increase,” Japp said.

“And certainly if lodging was present, there would be a yield increase.”

However, in 2021, chlormequat chloride was labelled yellow by Keep it Clean for barley, meaning that farmers should be informed when opting for it, and should check with their grain buyer to avoid potential marketing pitfalls. As of its 2026 product advisory, Keep it Clean maintains it as yellow status for malt, feed or food-bound barley.

The use of chlormequat chloride in oats has also sparked considerable controversy in recent years between advocacy groups and millers who have discouraged it and some farmers, who maintain the product has been useful.

Currently, Keep it Clean does not have a caution attached to chlormequat chloride in either oats or wheat.

New PGR products, mixed early results

Also in 2021, a newly released PGR — Moddus, active ingredient trinexapac-ethyl — was trialled. It was found to be effective, although any PGR’s influence on a crop varies depending on location, environmental conditions and variety.

“In 2020, ‘21, and ‘22, there was a lot of really low-producing sites,” Japp noted.

“Very low yielding, high stress, which is not the conditions to use a plant growth regulator in. And so what they saw was a significant yield decrease from the control treatment.”

Other sites had higher yields, but agronomic control methods like lower nitrogen, lowered seed rate and additions of potassium largely seemed to do the same job against lodging.

In 2023, they ran an enhanced growing project with six varieties and four management packages. The third package focused on plant height and included a PGR.

However, it was another dry year, which meant mid-range yield and no “real” lodging pressure , although the PGR did help reduce height.

Pushing nitrogen to force the answer

To really trial the efficacy of the PGR though, Japp wanted to induce lodging.

To do this, they applied nitrogen alongside the PGR at the Indian Head site in 2024 and were granted a cool wet spring, good heat in July and wind and rain in August. These results offered some of the best insights of the project, with clear differences between treatments.

A full rate of Moddus had a notable decrease in lodging compared to the untreated control. Both varieties, CDC Fraser and AAC Connect, responded the same.

In comparison, the other trial sites at Melfort and Prince Albert saw nearly no effect on yield or lodging because they were dealing with dry conditions.

Japp said the key is to start with good genetics and find a good balance between products, whether it’s the right amount of nitrogen for a good yield alongside a PGR, or not using a PGR at all.

Seeding rate should also be considered because a higher rate is good for weed management. Staying economical with the rate is important for yield and lodging.

“I think we can say comfortably that a timely PGR application, in really good growing conditions, can improve both harvest operations and increase yield,” he said.

“If the conditions aren’t optimal, there’s may be no benefit. Maybe you get a slight lodging decrease but not likely yield (improvement). And in the poor conditions, it does remain a (yield) risk, so we’re trying to avoid those risky conditions.”

More information is yet to come because a project is currently underway to predict risk of lodging at an early stage for better indication of the potential benefit in using a PGR in a barley crop.

What Manitoba growers should weigh

Back in 2024, cereal growers in Manitoba had a hard time with lodging and PGR questions flew.

The products’ use is a financial gamble, provincial cereal specialist Anne Kirk said at an agronomy event at Brandon’s Assiniboine College that fall.

“It’s a big input,” she said. “Especially when you’re making that decision if you want to be applying them or not fairly early on in the growing season, when you don’t know if you’re going to have, you know, a large hail event or drought in July or whatnot.”

Producers may consider applying strategically, she noted: on only their best wheat crop, or select acres, although she doesn’t see a lot of producers choosing only patches of their fields to apply.r5ui8

PGRs are not, she cautioned, a product to turn to if your crops are already strained by weather, insects or disease.

“Any sort of like plant stress, you wouldn’t want to be applying a plant growth regulator, because it is a hormone, and it can negatively interact with those other stress hormones,” she said.

Instead, she suggested, they might be a better fit for those crops that are intensely managed, seeded densely and generously fertilized with nitrogen.

— With files from Alexis Stockford

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Jim Beusekom, president of Market Place Commodities, said feed barley was trading at C$305 to C$310 per tonne in Lethbridge, with feed wheat at a similar range. U.S. corn was trading at C$295 to C$305. He said feed barley and wheat, which were trading at C$270 per tonne at the start of the month, largely followed the upward price movement for U.S. corn futures.

For daily markets coverage, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

Beusekom added that consistent demand and a “successful” export program for feed barley will continue to support prices over the next six weeks.

“We would expect spring and summer will be a competitive marketplace to purchase from farmers because they’ve been successful in selling their crops so far and they aren’t carrying as much as originally forecasted,” Beusekom said. “A lot of the market direction on barley is definitely still being set by corn and secondly by the exporters.”

Although the war in Iran and the halting of traffic on the Strait of Hormuz have affected energy prices nationwide, Beusekom said it hasn’t affected grain prices yet, but freight rates could change if fuel costs stay elevated. The question of who will take care of those costs is still up in the air.

“There are a lot of input costs that are creeping higher. How do you know if they are factored into those prices? It’s hard to tell,” he added. “For example, on grain that’s (shipped) for export, does the seller pay for it or does the buyer pay for it? For the grain we’re importing, it’s basically the same thing.”

More markets coverage – Klassen: Stronger barley prices weigh on feeder cattle values

As for upcoming spring conditions, Beusekom said parts of southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan are “leaning towards drought”, but they are still subject to change.

“It does seem Western Canada is leaning on the dry side but I want to caution everyone, rain and a snowstorm will alleviate every drought concern,” he said.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported delivered feed barley prices in Alberta at C$4.79 to C$6.68 per bushel on March 23, up 26 cents from the previous week. In Saskatchewan, the price range was C$4.90 to C$5.45/bu., unchanged from the week before. In Manitoba, prices were from C$4.60 to C$4.71/bu., down two cents.

Delivered feed wheat prices in Alberta were from C$5.97 to C$8.41/bu. for a weekly gain of 35 cents. In Saskatchewan, prices were up 30 cents at C$7 to C$7.30/bu. In Manitoba, the price increased by three cents at C$6.27/bu.

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• Corn futures in Chicago climbed to their highest levels in 10 months, with the May contract up by 30 cents per bushel over the past month. Rising energy and fertilizer prices amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East added to expectations that farmers in the United States will shift more intended corn acres into soybeans this spring.
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to its highest levels in four years, trading at just under US$100 per barrel on March 19.
• Feed barley into the Lethbridge-area feedlots was priced at about C$285 to C$295 per tonne in mid-March, having risen by C$20 to C$30 per tonne over the past month, according to provincial data. Feed wheat priced similar, with corn from the U.S. at US$290 per tonne. • Seasonal price trends contributed to the gains, as feed supplies tighten ahead of cattle going out to pasture and the new crop.
• Solid export demand continued to underpin the domestic feed market, with more grain moving offshore this year. Canadian Grain Commission data shows 2.142 million tonnes of barley exported through 31 weeks of the marketing year, up from 1.204 million tonnes at the same point a year ago.
• Country-specific data through January shows China remains the largest single destination for Canadian barley in 2025-26, accounting for about 57 per cent of the movement to-date. Japan and Saudi Arabia were also major buyers.
• Canadian imports of U.S. corn are also up on the year, according to the latest USDA data. Canada has imported 383,600 tonnes of U.S. corn from Sept. 1 through March 12, which compares with only 101,700 tonnes at the same point the previous marketing year. An additional 201,100 tonnes are on the books to move later — roughly eight times the outstanding sales at the same point in 2024-25.

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Chuck Penner, founder of LeftField Commodity Research, spoke at the 2026 Canadian Crops Convention about supply and demand in the Canadian grains sector and how a strong 2025 could lead to a complex 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian farmers will soon be planting the 2026 crops, with large old crop supplies complicating the market outlook.

“We talk in ag markets always about cycles,” said Penner. “The market is cycling. And so right now, we’re in a supply-heavy situation. But is that going to continue? I would argue ‘no.’”

“What we have is this comfortable carryover,” he continued noting that can lead to a complacent mindset in grain markets.

Canada produced an aggregated 106 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds, pulses and other crops in 2025, 10 million more than the previous year.

“So, what are we doing with that grain?” Penner asked.

Farmer deliveries are already up three million tonnes over last year. Exports are at 25 million tonnes, up from the five-year average by around 2.5 million.

“That’s good, but it still doesn’t dispose of 10 million tonnes more production,” Penner said. “If we keep this pace up, and there are some really good signs that we will keep this pace up, then we will work that down to some degree.”

Despite what Penner referred to as a “heavy-supply mindset” hanging over the sector, prices are still moving, and he expects them to continue firming up.

Many crops see seasonal price peaks in the spring, but Penner cautioned that those commodities will start to tip over in early summer “and everybody’s going to freak out and talk about the heavy supplies again.”

One problem now is there is not much urgency in attracting acreage.

In tighter supply years, such as after the 2021 drought, buyers were desperate and some started contracting for 2022 new crop in October and November already. However, this year, the sentiment is “we’ll buy it when we need it,” said Penner.

Resolving heavy supply

For some major crops like barley, canola and soybeans, stocks-to-use ratios are wide, but Penner said those ratios will likely be a bit lower at the end of 2026-27.

“There’s a key reason for that,” he said. “What happens when we drop back to either average or to trend yields? It basically wipes out. It’s a far bigger influence on the supply situation for next year than acreage shifts.”

While acreage shifts are interesting, a return to average yields in Western Canada after the bumper crops of 2025-26 would “do a whole lot in terms of resolving the heavy supply situation that we have,” said Penner.

“If we move to an average yield or even a trend yield in those major crops, the supply numbers get close to the five-year average,” he said adding that supplies of oats, corn and soybeans may even become tight.

What to plant this year?

Penner said his recommendation for 2026 was to plant oats.

“If you all rush out and plant oats now, of course that effect is gone. But barley and durum supplies should remain comfortable. It’s the pulses and special crops that are going to take a couple of years to really resolve the heavy supply situation.”

Currently, he said global supplies will favour the buyer.

“2025-26 was a good year globally. No question,” he said. “The question is, can it repeat?”

Penner offered general market thoughts on crops for 2026.

Wheat

Wheat saw record global and Canadian production with prices remaining relatively flat. Penner pointed out wheat is almost never touched by trade disruptions or tariffs. Canada is also exporting durum almost at last year’s record pace, even with strong European and North African crops.

Barley

Barley had a record yield last year with the largest Canadian crop since 2020-21, and prices are rising. Penner said Canada has strong barley exports to countries like China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Oats

Penner said the main concern with oats is a weaker export pace. Other export markets like Australia and the U.S., which saw its biggest oat crop in over 10 years, could challenge Canada. He said he thought soft prices could discourage acreage in 2026 and leave Canada with “some really tight supplies of oats.”

Canola

Canola production and yields were strong globally, leading to increased supplies, but according to Penner, “the demand side is the bigger picture.” With the market more certain following U.S. biofuels and potential tariffs, prices have continued to rise. He added if canola drops back to average levels, supplies will tighten and demand will strengthen.

Peas

Peas also had near-record yields in Canada which, combined with a strong Russian crop, have led to a global glut. Though imports from India are not what they have been, Penner said other buyers like China have also stepped in. He said there is a sizable carryover into 2026, especially for green peas.

Lentils

Penner said demand is fairly static for green lentils but could be stronger for red lentils. On both fronts, he said it must get stronger to deal with supply, but it is “hard to see that happening.” He added there is a huge supply of green lentils now hanging over the market, but “the red picture will be more balanced.”

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Haley said on March 12 that there’s an ongoing lack of farmer selling, plus stiff competition from the grain companies looking to export barley.

“That competition keeps moving a little more south,” he said of the latter. “The grain companies are very aggressive in purchasing barley out in the country for export.”

Added to that, Haley said there’s a minor third reason, a pickup in demand from end users after being on the quiet side for the last four months.

Haley placed feed barley at C$295 per tonne delivered Lethbridge for April-May-June and feed wheat at C$287. He suggested barley could poke above C$300/tonne in the coming weeks.

“If you do see that and the weather is agreeable to production, you better be selling the living daylights out of it,” he stressed.

Weather will be a determining factor, he continued.

“I was at the (Alberta Beef Industry Conference) last week and the CattleFax out of the U.S. is not predicting a nice growing season for Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan,” Haley said, noting “We’ll find out soon enough.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported feed barley was steady to higher for the week ended March 11, with Alberta up 15 cents at C$4.79 to C$6.21 per bushel delivered to the elevator. Manitoba saw a gain of nine cents at C$4.60 to C$4.70/bu.del. and Saskatchewan was unchanged at C$4.90 to C$5.45.

Feed wheat in Alberta and Saskatchewan was holding at C$5.97 to C$7.76/bu.del. and C$7, respectively. The Manitoba price rose 10 cents at C$6.14/bu.del.

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In a monthly report, the consultancy put EU soft wheat exports at 27.1 million metric tons, down from 27.6 million last month – which would still exceed the 2024/25 low level, when a poor harvest hampered French shipments.

“To reflect the immediate impact of the war in the Middle East, we are initially revising down our forecasts for European wheat and barley exports to countries in the region,” it said in the report.

The consultancy’s cuts in EU export forecasts to the region were for 250,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of barley, Benoit Fayaud, senior grain analyst at Expana, said separately.

At a global level, it revised soft wheat imports to the Middle East in 2025/26 by 1.6 million tons, corn imports by 1.7 million tons and barley imports by 500,000 tons.

Trade flows during the first part of the campaign were very dynamic and two months of slowdown would ultimately have only a moderate impact on overall volumes for the current marketing year, Expana said in its report.

“If the conflict were to last longer, or if, for example, energy prices were to remain permanently higher, and consequently cereal prices would follow, then we would be forced to further reduce our demand estimate, not only in the Middle East, but also globally,” Fayaud said.

For 2026/27, the consultancy raised its forecast for the bloc’s soft wheat crop to 128.6 million tons, up from 128.3 million last month, and increased its barley outlook to 52.3 million tons from 52.2 million last month.

By contrast, Expana cut its 2026 maize production forecast in the bloc to 57.9 million tons, down from 58.3 million last month, citing a downward revision for France.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide

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