Well, last week’s forecast turned out not too bad, considering this annoying weather pattern in which we seem to be stuck. The weather models seem to be having an OK time handling the large-scale features, but are struggling with the day-to-day details. This forecast period looks like it will be another tough one to figure […] Read more
On the good news side of things, the weather models were pretty accurate with last week’s forecast. The western low developed as forecast and followed the predicted northerly track over the weekend. It did bring in warmer-than-expected air last Friday, with some areas of central and eastern regions seeing daytime highs pushing 35 C. The […] Read more
Last week’s forecast played out fairly close to what the weather models were predicting with one major exception. The area of low pressure that tracked southeastward through our region last Friday didn’t bring much in the way of clouds or showers, but it did open the door for a very unseasonably cold air mass to […] Read more
The weather models now consistently show a break in our weather pattern with a more seasonable pattern developing. This means warmer temperatures, and while it doesn’t look like we will see any big storm systems, with warmer weather comes the risk of thunderstorms. We begin this forecast period with a broad ridge of high pressure […] Read more
Surprisingly, last week’s forecast didn’t turn out too bad, considering all the differences between the weather models last weekend. Not sure what the better trade-off was: cool and dry, or cool and wet? From my observations, it seems like most of the planting has been done, and while there is OK soil moisture, things are […] Read more
The two main weather models I look at when trying to come up with the forecast each week are interpreting the overall big picture similarly for the next week or two — but as I’ve pointed out several times over the years, a difference of only a few hundred kilometres can have a major impact […] Read more
It finally looks like we are almost done dealing with a large upper-level low that has been controlling our weather over the last couple of weeks. The main upper low did track across north-central Manitoba over the weekend as predicted, but instead of moving off into Quebec, it looks like it will meander over Hudson […] Read more
Once again, last week’s forecast quickly fell apart as cool high pressure combined with a retrograding upper low over Northern Canada played havoc with the forecast. What looked to be a fairly wet period turned out to be dry, as the forecast areas of low pressure were pushed to our south with only far western […] Read more
For the first time in a while, last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models were predicting, with the added bonus of temperatures ending up a little warmer than expected. This forecast period will begin with a predominantly zonal flow with the jet stream tracking across the southern Prairies. This will […] Read more
For those of you who closely follow the weather and forecasting, you know that small changes early in the forecast period are often amplified later. Last week’s forecast was a perfect example of this. The arctic high that brought the cool weather last week also helped to protect us from a large Colorado low that […] Read more
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