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The outlook for canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange appears to be on a downward slide, said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba-based trader and farmer.

Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade.

With the speculative fund selling and relatively decent crop conditions on the Canadian Prairies, a broker said canola futures have little option but to continue falling back.

Trade discussions between Canada and the United States as well as dry weather have driven canola’s rally on the Intercontinental Exchange during the week ended July 2, 2025.

Crops in Manitoba continue to develop at a good pace despite a lack of rainfall in some parts of the province, reported Manitoba Agriculture on July 2.

With exports of Canadian canola still going strong in 2024/25, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada readjusted its estimates in its June supply and demand report.

Canola prices could shift up or down in the coming weeks due to uncertainty, said Jerry Klassen, analyst with Resilient Capital in Winnipeg

There were some notable changes to Canadian canola made in the United States Department of Agriculture world oilseed report issued on June 12. The USDA increased its call on 2024/25 canola exports and trimmed those for 2025/26, and reduced carryout projections for both marketing years.

Canola prices were on the rise for the week ended June 11 as depleted stocks and dry weather gave the markets a lift.

Farmers in Saskatchewan have virtually wrapped up their spring seeding for 2025, with the provincial agriculture department reporting the crops were 97 per cent planted as of June 2. That's up nine points on the week, three ahead of this time last year and two above the five-year average.